HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX/WMT Closed Near Session Cycle Lows
HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX/WMT closed near session cycle lows, and, the WMT (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.) and NEM Lead Indicators were very bearish (-0.74% versus the S & P 500 for WMT) and modestly bearish (-0.29% versus the XAU for NEM, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) respectively.
However, SPX is somewhat oversold, and, HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX/WMT are in the process of completing very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns, so, while there may be more downside early tomorrow, there's likely to be a significant bounce early on at some point.
The key is to watch reliable lead indicator WMT, which is in the process of putting in a short term Wave 4 cycle low, but, could still have a ways to go if it fills it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
New developments since today's first posts are:
GNBT surprised to the upside in rollover mode (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), and finished the session in an intraday Wave B, or, it still might surprise to the upside in rollover mode early tomorrow. After a very short term or intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern I'll look to buy some.
AVNR's Wave C of it's monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) plumbed a new cycle low at 3.18 versus the previous 3.20, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. Considering how bearish the market is now, AVNR is holding up well.
Tomorrow ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) may fill it's downside gap at 13.96 created at yesterday's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy early tomorrow.
QTWW filled it's downside gap at 1.46 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. I'll be looking to buy early tomorrow.
RVNG.OB's short term Wave 4 is in a bottoming mode, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. I'll be looking to buy early tomorrow.
DNDN needs to show more strength before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN put in a likely short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.55 versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00 and a monthly cycle low at 4.95.
FCEL's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 7.11 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Note the bullish large inverse spike and the white candle, indicating that FCEL closed above the open. It should do Wave 5 of a very short term upcycle early tomorrow (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel), after which I'll look to buy in Wave C of a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle.
AGEN is in Wave 5 of a short term Wave 5, and is stuck in a short term triangle right now, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen.
I'm looking to short GDX tomorrow, the gold miners ETF, but it's very oversold, so I may not, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
However, SPX is somewhat oversold, and, HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX/WMT are in the process of completing very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns, so, while there may be more downside early tomorrow, there's likely to be a significant bounce early on at some point.
The key is to watch reliable lead indicator WMT, which is in the process of putting in a short term Wave 4 cycle low, but, could still have a ways to go if it fills it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
New developments since today's first posts are:
GNBT surprised to the upside in rollover mode (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), and finished the session in an intraday Wave B, or, it still might surprise to the upside in rollover mode early tomorrow. After a very short term or intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern I'll look to buy some.
AVNR's Wave C of it's monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) plumbed a new cycle low at 3.18 versus the previous 3.20, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. Considering how bearish the market is now, AVNR is holding up well.
Tomorrow ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) may fill it's downside gap at 13.96 created at yesterday's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy early tomorrow.
QTWW filled it's downside gap at 1.46 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. I'll be looking to buy early tomorrow.
RVNG.OB's short term Wave 4 is in a bottoming mode, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. I'll be looking to buy early tomorrow.
DNDN needs to show more strength before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN put in a likely short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.55 versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00 and a monthly cycle low at 4.95.
FCEL's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 7.11 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Note the bullish large inverse spike and the white candle, indicating that FCEL closed above the open. It should do Wave 5 of a very short term upcycle early tomorrow (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel), after which I'll look to buy in Wave C of a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle.
AGEN is in Wave 5 of a short term Wave 5, and is stuck in a short term triangle right now, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen.
I'm looking to short GDX tomorrow, the gold miners ETF, but it's very oversold, so I may not, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:20 PM
