Trade the Cycles

Friday, June 22, 2007

.....................SPX Failed To Do Wave 5

SPX failed to do the Wave 5 discussed earlier today (see below), which obviously reveals how bearish the market is now, that it can't complete a Wave 5 that normally would happen 90%+ of the time. In a likely Wave B type oversold bounce today/Monday I'll look to "get my shorts on."

"Why I didn't short WMT and buy the "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS yet? Because the S & P 500 (SPX) "needs to do" (very likely) the Wave 5 upcycle of the upcycle that began early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Notice that Waves 2 and 4 down did Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns. Elliott Wave is so cool it isn't funny.

Reliable SPX Lead Indicator WMT is (probably) in Wave C of Wave C of a (long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, since a monster short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 in early June, for the monthly upcycle that began at 46.32 in late May, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Wednesday's cycle low at 47.77 should be the Wave A of Wave C cycle low. Therefore, WMT should bottom below 47.77 today or Monday, shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60. WMT's short term Wave 4 should bottom in the 47 to 47.50 range. Ciao." ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .