WMT May Still Fill It's Downside Gap At 47.60 In The Short Term Wave 4
WMT may still fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the Short Term Wave 4 (since early June) as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low was 47.75 versus yesterday's at 47.69. The bearish large spike on today's candle is a sign that 47.60 may get filled tomorrow. Even if 47.60 doesn't get filled WMT's short term Wave 4 will have bottomed very near 47.60 at 47.69, so, tracking gaps still was very useful.
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60 OR it may have bottomed yesterday at 47.69, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator has turned positive the past three sessions, which is a sign that WMT is bottoming. It was a very bullish +0.63% versus the S & P 500 today, it was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, and, was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.07% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Because volume was low today for ACAD and MDII and should dry up even more the next week+ due to the July 4th holiday (and the Fed meeting tomorrow and Thursday), I won't be talking about them. AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN will probably be mentioned only if it looks like they hit monthly cycle lows AND hit monthly cycle buy signals (strong short term Wave 1 upcycle for a few days). AVNR may have hit a monthly cycle low today at 2.40 versus the prior monthly cycle low at 2.36. AVNR should put in a higher monthly cycle low in order to remain a bullish rocket (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr).
Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, TMTA, and, possibly also FCEL. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal, so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.
My favorite rocket now by far is GNBT (though TMTA also looks great), which is probably in the process of filling it's downside gap at 1.80 created at yesterday's open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early yesterday, with a huge spike to 2.05, , see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 should bottom shortly after 1.80 gets filled, which is when I'll look to buy. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3) is completed. GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked yesterday, note the large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta. It looks like Wave 2 of Wave 5 will bottom in the 0.47-0.50 range, at which point I'll look to buy.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
FCEL put in a (long) short term Wave 1 cycle high at 8.05 after hitting a monthly cycle low at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The cycle low at 7.57 was Wave A of Wave 2 down not the final Wave 2 cycle low, so, tomorrow FCEL will probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=,
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60 OR it may have bottomed yesterday at 47.69, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator has turned positive the past three sessions, which is a sign that WMT is bottoming. It was a very bullish +0.63% versus the S & P 500 today, it was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, and, was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.07% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Because volume was low today for ACAD and MDII and should dry up even more the next week+ due to the July 4th holiday (and the Fed meeting tomorrow and Thursday), I won't be talking about them. AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN will probably be mentioned only if it looks like they hit monthly cycle lows AND hit monthly cycle buy signals (strong short term Wave 1 upcycle for a few days). AVNR may have hit a monthly cycle low today at 2.40 versus the prior monthly cycle low at 2.36. AVNR should put in a higher monthly cycle low in order to remain a bullish rocket (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr).
Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, TMTA, and, possibly also FCEL. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal, so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.
My favorite rocket now by far is GNBT (though TMTA also looks great), which is probably in the process of filling it's downside gap at 1.80 created at yesterday's open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early yesterday, with a huge spike to 2.05, , see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 should bottom shortly after 1.80 gets filled, which is when I'll look to buy. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3) is completed. GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked yesterday, note the large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta. It looks like Wave 2 of Wave 5 will bottom in the 0.47-0.50 range, at which point I'll look to buy.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
FCEL put in a (long) short term Wave 1 cycle high at 8.05 after hitting a monthly cycle low at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The cycle low at 7.57 was Wave A of Wave 2 down not the final Wave 2 cycle low, so, tomorrow FCEL will probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=,
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:34 PM
