It Looks Like WMT Will Fill 47.60 In The Short Term Wave 4 As Expected
It looks like WMT will fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the short term Wave 4 as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low as 47.69.
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator has turned positive the past two sessions, which is a sign that WMT is bottoming. It was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 today and was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, TMTA, and, possibly also MDII, FCEL, and ACAD. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't, unlikely) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal, so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.
DNDN filled it's downside gap at 6.74 today, with a session cycle low at 6.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn, and, DNDN's monthly downcycle should bottom soon. DNDN needs to establish a monthly cycle low/hit a monthly cycle buy signal before I look to go long. DNDN will need to do a strong Wave 1 short term upcycle for a few days in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term or monthly cycle buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well.
GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early today with a huge spike to 2.05, , see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. It appears that today's downside gap at 1.80 from the open will probably get filled tomorrow or Wednesday. Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 should bottom shortly after 1.80 gets filled, and, I'll look to buy GNBT after that. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3) is completed.
GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Looking at the 1 day chart it looks like TMTA will pull back early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TMTA&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, at which point I'll look to buy.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4 (as it was on Friday) and will probably take out Wednesday's likely Wave A of Wave 4 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move last Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked Wednesday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at last Tuesday's open from 1.23.
FCEL did not put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high today than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, one has to turn cautious on FCEL now IF FCEL takes out the Wave 2 of (the short term) Wave 3 cycle low from late Thursday. If late Thursday's cycle low holds then FCEL remains in a bullish/healthy monthly upcycle. See next paragraph. Today's bearish large spike, plus the bearish dark candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel, which indicates a close below the open, are more reasons to be cautious.
I think what's going on is that Wave 4 (since early Friday) of the short term Wave 3 probably bottomed late today and did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early Friday. As long as the Wave 2 of (the short term) Wave 3 cycle low from late Thursday holds, then FCEL's Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle since Wave 2 bottomed at 7.57 early on Thursday remains intact, and, FCEL remains in a bullish/healthy monthly upcycle.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 7.57 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND had strong price/volume action, so, a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurred.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday 6-11's open as expected on Wednesday 6-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. ACAD's short term Wave 3 peaked at 15.42 early on Wednesday (monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5). ACAD's short term Wave 4 downcycle has done Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early Wednesday's Wave 3 cycle high at 15.42, which means that Wave 4 down may have bottomed late today/Monday. I'll be looking to buy this tomorrow.
AVNR's monthly downcycle since peaking at 4.00 continues to plumb new lows, with a cycle low at 2.91 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The previous monthly cycle low was at 2.36, so, this action isn't too surprising. AVNR appears to be in the final Wave C of Wave C of the monthly downcycle.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator has turned positive the past two sessions, which is a sign that WMT is bottoming. It was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 today and was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, TMTA, and, possibly also MDII, FCEL, and ACAD. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't, unlikely) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal, so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.
DNDN filled it's downside gap at 6.74 today, with a session cycle low at 6.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn, and, DNDN's monthly downcycle should bottom soon. DNDN needs to establish a monthly cycle low/hit a monthly cycle buy signal before I look to go long. DNDN will need to do a strong Wave 1 short term upcycle for a few days in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term or monthly cycle buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well.
GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early today with a huge spike to 2.05, , see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. It appears that today's downside gap at 1.80 from the open will probably get filled tomorrow or Wednesday. Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 should bottom shortly after 1.80 gets filled, and, I'll look to buy GNBT after that. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3) is completed.
GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Looking at the 1 day chart it looks like TMTA will pull back early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TMTA&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, at which point I'll look to buy.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4 (as it was on Friday) and will probably take out Wednesday's likely Wave A of Wave 4 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move last Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked Wednesday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at last Tuesday's open from 1.23.
FCEL did not put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high today than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, one has to turn cautious on FCEL now IF FCEL takes out the Wave 2 of (the short term) Wave 3 cycle low from late Thursday. If late Thursday's cycle low holds then FCEL remains in a bullish/healthy monthly upcycle. See next paragraph. Today's bearish large spike, plus the bearish dark candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel, which indicates a close below the open, are more reasons to be cautious.
I think what's going on is that Wave 4 (since early Friday) of the short term Wave 3 probably bottomed late today and did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early Friday. As long as the Wave 2 of (the short term) Wave 3 cycle low from late Thursday holds, then FCEL's Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle since Wave 2 bottomed at 7.57 early on Thursday remains intact, and, FCEL remains in a bullish/healthy monthly upcycle.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 7.57 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND had strong price/volume action, so, a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurred.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday 6-11's open as expected on Wednesday 6-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. ACAD's short term Wave 3 peaked at 15.42 early on Wednesday (monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5). ACAD's short term Wave 4 downcycle has done Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early Wednesday's Wave 3 cycle high at 15.42, which means that Wave 4 down may have bottomed late today/Monday. I'll be looking to buy this tomorrow.
AVNR's monthly downcycle since peaking at 4.00 continues to plumb new lows, with a cycle low at 2.91 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The previous monthly cycle low was at 2.36, so, this action isn't too surprising. AVNR appears to be in the final Wave C of Wave C of the monthly downcycle.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:47 PM
