An SPX (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Has Been In Effect Since 12-29-08

An SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle has been in effect since late on 12-29-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Quarter and year end window dressing by mutual funds was probably a major factor behind the strength since late on 12-29-08.

An SPX (S & P 500) short term Wave A downcycle occurred from 12-17-08's cycle high at 918.85 until late on 12-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The upcycle since late on 12-29-08 looks like it'll peak below the 12-17-08 cycle high at 918.85, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which means that it's probably a countertrend Wave B type upcycle as expected.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at +0.42% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-31-08, -2.55% on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26.

The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned very bearish, at -0.53% versus the XAU today/on 12-31, and -1.01% on 12-30.

The Oil and Gas Sector XOM Lead Indicator has turned very bearish, at +0.55% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) today/on 12-31, -1.66% on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29.

On Friday, once I'm convinced that the countertrend Wave B upcycle (in effect since late on 12-29-08) has peaked, I'll look to day trade SPX or RUT ultra short via SDS or (probably) TWM. I also might day trade SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF) or DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF). I might hold a modest ultra short position overnight.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Today I day traded mid session weakness via TWM and made 12 cents/share = $120 per 1000 shares traded.

GDX/HUI/XAU's countertrend Wave B upcycle of the Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08 appears to be peaking, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, their Wave 3 monthly upcycle (began in late November) might peak in rollover mode (GDX's did after I wrote this, and, it might end up being a near perfect bearish double top), especially in the case of GDX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

Thus ends today's market update. Ciao. Happy New Year!

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

.......Solar Stocks Appear To Be Breaking Out

Solar stocks (TAN is a solar ETF) appear to be breaking out, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tan, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tsl, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sol, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?csiq, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat. Most or all of these gapped up today, so, they have bullish breakaway gaps.

Since SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)
and the market in general is probably going to tank the next few weeks (SPX has been trending down since 12-17-08), one probably shouldn't chase the solar stocks now. Also, the potential breakout is early, and, could be a false start for the sector.

It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading in the same direction as the market almost always makes sense. This means that, for the next few weeks or so, short selling will probably be much more profitable than trading long.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX (S & P 500)/Major Averages Countertrend Spike Move And GDX/HUI/XAU Are Short Term Bearish

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is doing a big countertrend Wave B spike move since late yesterday 12-29-08, of the short term Wave A downcycle since 12-17-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at -2.55% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23, which jives with today's strength probably being a countertrend Wave B spike move.

Since SPX (S & P 500) appears to have been in Wave 5 peaking of the countertrend Wave B spike move since late yesterday 12-29-08 at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, a good shorting opportunity will probably present itself early tomorrow 12-31-08 (Happy New Year!).

I'll look to ultra short the major averages via SDS/TWM/QID or the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) via DUG early tomorrow. Today I day traded the mid session weakness, with a six minute six second TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF) trade, in which I netted nearly 13 cents/share/nearly $130 per 1000 shares traded.

Now, GDX/HUI/XAU appear to be in a Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08, not a short term Wave 5 upcycle of a Wave 3 monthly upcycle (started late November 2008), see GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Note the bearish medium spike on 12-17-08's bearish red candle.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high on 12-17-08 (bearish large spike on a bearish red candle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, appears to be a Wave 1 monthly cycle high, which means that NEM is probably in a Wave 2 monthly downcycle.

Given that the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.71% versus the XAU yesterday/on 12-29-08, and, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM created bullish breakaway gaps at yesterday's open at 32.25 and 38.85 respectively, today should have brought a big move up, if GDX/HUI/XAU were in a short term Wave 5 upcycle of a Wave 3 monthly upcycle. Today's action obviously confirmed the short term bearish case.

Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish today and recently, at -1.01% versus the XAU today/on 12-30-08, +1.71% on 12-29, -0.57% on 12-26, +0.16% on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM should try to fill the downside gaps created at yesterday's open (at 32.25 and 38.85 respectively) tomorrow (GDX cycle low was 32.31 today, which strongly supports the short term bearish case). GDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23.

The good news is that, some time in the next week or so, there should be a good buying opportunity, to catch the Wave 5 monthly upcycle.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF)/HUI/XAU did an entire monthly cycle (very short but huge eight session Wave 1 monthly upcycle and a Wave 2 monthly downcycle) from late October until late November 2008, see GDX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

If SPX (S & P 500)/the market is about to experience (roughly within the next month or so) a substantial decline and take out the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which appears likely, then, this short term Wave A downcycle (since late 12-17-08) is probably part of a larger/longer Wave A downcycle.

Note that, since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in very anemic rollover mode, with the Wave 5 cycle high being the bearish double top cycle high at 918.85 on 12-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish recently, at
-1.66% versus the XOI today/on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29, +0.28% on 12-26, +1.17% on 12-24, +0.97% on 12-23, +1.65% on 12-22, -2.08% on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (very doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.

A bearish sign is that most of SPX's (S & P 500) gains since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, came in the FIRST TWO SESSIONS of the upcycle.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market From 3-17-08 Until Late October 2008 Did An Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 Down Up Down Up Down Pattern

GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) and HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market from 3-17-08 (the XAU's began 3-14-08) until late October 2008 did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spikes that have occurred (see chart two, the weekly view) since the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market began in late October 2008.

Wave 1 down bottomed on 5-1-08, Wave 2 up peaked in mid July 2008, Wave 3 down bottomed in early September at 27.35, Wave 4 up peaked in late September at 38.73, and, Wave 5 down bottomed at 15.83 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low) in late October 2008. GDX (Gold Miners ETF) fell -72.16% in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market.

See annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html to see the 5% major buy signal/breakout that occurred on 12-10-08 for GDX/HUI/XAU, which means that Trade the Cycles the system now indicates that a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low very likely occurred in late October 2008.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Did Wave A of Wave C of Wave 5 Down Early Today And GDX/HUI/XAU Appear To Be Wave 5 Of The Wave 3 Monthly Upcycle Since Late November

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) plunged/did Wave A of Wave C (since late 12-26-08) of Wave 5 down (since early on 12-23-08) early today as expected (of the short term Wave A downcycle since 12-17-08), and, good news, GDX/HUI/XAU appear to be (very likely) in a short term Wave 5 upcycle (since 12-19 (GDX) and 12-22 for HUI/XAU) of the Wave 3 Monthly Upcycle since late November, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see SPX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF)/HUI/XAU did an entire monthly cycle (very short but huge eight session Wave 1 monthly upcycle and a Wave 2 monthly downcycle) from late October until late November 2008, see GDX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Now, GDX/HUI/XAU clearly appear to be in a short term Wave 5 upcycle of the Wave 3 monthly upcycle since late November. I should have realized this sooner. Actually, my original analysis I believe was correct, then I changed it.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.71% versus the XAU today/on 12-29-08, and, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM created bullish breakaway gaps at today's open at 32.25 and 38.85 respectively. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has more downside bullish breakaway gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23.

I'll look to day trade GDX/AEM early tomorrow. Today I day traded SDS (UltraShort S & P 500 ETF), and, made a little over 13 cents/share ($130+ per 1000 shares traded) in a 1 minute 20 second trade.

I'll also look at shorting SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) or NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM early tomorrow, because, SPX was in Wave 5 peaking of the upcycle that began late today 12-29-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, which appears to be the countertrend Wave B up of Wave C down (since late 12-26-08) of Wave 5 down (since early on 12-23-08) of the short term Wave A downcycle since 12-17-08.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The SPX (S & P 500) Elliott Wave count jives with the bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.04% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-29, at -0.70% on 12-26-08, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23.

Reliable broad market lead indicator WMT’s (Walmart) short term likely countertrend Wave B type move peaked five sessions ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT broke down out of it’s short term uptrending channel on Tuesday 12-23-08. A likely Wave A down of Wave C type move appears to have bottomed today 12-29-08. Note WMT's bullish medium inverse spike on today's candle (black/bearish/close below the open).

If SPX (S & P 500)/the market is about to experience (roughly within the next month or so) a substantial decline and take out the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which appears likely, then, this short term Wave A downcycle (since late 12-17-08) is probably part of a larger/longer Wave A downcycle.

Note that, since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in very anemic rollover mode, with the Wave 5 cycle high being the bearish double top cycle high at 918.85 on 12-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish recently, at
-0.83% versus the XOI today/on 12-29, +0.28% on 12-26, +1.17% on 12-24, +0.97% on 12-23, +1.65% on 12-22, -2.08% on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.

A bearish sign is that most of SPX's (S & P 500) gains since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, came in the FIRST TWO SESSIONS of the upcycle.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08, breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

Arctic Oil & Gas Corp. (Other OTC: AOAG.PK), Another Penny Stock Rocket

Arctic Oil & Gas Corp. (Other OTC: AOAG.PK, recent news at http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/081222/0462259.html and http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/081208/0458411.html), another penny stock rocket, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aoag.

Note that AOAG.PK has a bullish double bottom earlier in the year, and, a higher one later in the year, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aoag. It did a lot of basebuilding, and, has obviously broken out and hit a 5% major buy signal on strong expanding volume.

Arctic Oil & Gas Corp. (Other OTC: AOAG.PK) is in a short term Wave 3 upcycle since Tuesday 12-23-08 (large bullish inverse spike on 12-23, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aoag), and, is in a Wave 3 monthly upcycle since 12-18-08 (huge very bullish inverse spike on 12-18, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aoag).

Arctic Oil & Gas Corp. (Other OTC: AOAG.PK) is a very speculative pinksheets stock (http://www.pennymarkets.com/pinks.shtml). Not a recommendation, do your own due diligence.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sarissa Resources, Inc. (SRSR.PK) Followed Through On 12-24-08's 5% Major Buy Signal

Sarissa Resources, Inc. (SRSR.PK) followed through on 12-24-08's 5% major buy signal/breakout today 12-26-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?srsr, rising +45.83% (+0.011) to 0.035, on 9,441,932 shares, versus over 5 million shares on 12-24-08 and a +50.00% gain. Note the very large bearish spike on today 12-26-08's candle.

SRSR.PK might have put in a Wave 3 monthly cycle high today 12-26-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?srsr, or, will probably do so next week if there's an upside surprise. However, today 12-26-08's cycle high also might be a short term Wave 3 cycle high (after looking at it a little more, it appears to be a short term Wave 3 cycle high), since the Elliott Wave count isn't an easy/clear one right now. The Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred in mid/late November 2008.

The fact that today 12-26-08's candle is white, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?srsr, indicating a bullish close above the open, means that SRSR.PK is more likely to surprise to the upside than if it had closed below the open. That being said, why chase it right now? If it makes a large bullish breakaway type gap at Monday's open I might day trade it for fun.

Looking at SRSR.PK's intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SRSR.PK&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, it looks like it might surprise to the upside early on Monday.

SRSR.PK hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on 12-24-08, on over 5 million shares, closing at the session cycle high 0.024, which correctly pointed to more upside early today/on Friday 12-26-08.

SRSR.PK very likely entered a Cyclical Bull Market in October 2008, along with GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx), and, like HUI/XAU, it has a very bullish triple bottom in October 2008, with three large bullish inverse spikes, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?srsr.

Sarissa Resources, Inc. (SRSR.PK) is a very speculative pinksheets stock. Not a recommendation, do your own due diligence.

See http://www.sarissaresources.com/ for Sarissa Resources, Inc. (SRSR.PK) web site. See http://nemegosenda.sarissaresources.com/ for what looks like a good Blog about their big project (they have a handful of properties). This company looks very interesting.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Yes, SPX (S & P 500) Is Probably Doing An Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 Down Up Down Up Down Pattern Since Late On 12-17-08

Yes, SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is probably doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since late on 12-17-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Note that SPX's (S & P 500) upcycle since late on Tuesday 12-23-08 is anemic, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, is probably a countertrend Wave B up of Wave 5 down (Wave 5 down began early on 12-23-08), of the short term Wave A downcycle since late on 12-17-08 (cycle high at 918.85, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx).

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 4 up peaked early on 12-23-08, then, Wave A down of Wave 5 down bottomed late on 12-23-08. It looks like Wave B up of Wave 5 down peaked shortly before session's end today 12-26-08 in rollover mode, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which means that Wave C down of Wave 5 down probably began very late today 12-26-08.

The SPX (S & P 500) Elliott Wave count jives with the bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-26-08, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23.

I'll be looking to day trade SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or some other ultra short ETF on Monday (TWM/QID or DUG/SRS/SMN). Today I made a little over 6 cents/share ($60+ per 1000 shares traded) on a brief TWM day trade.

Reliable broad market lead indicator WMT’s (Walmart) short term likely countertrend Wave B type move appears to have peaked four sessions ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT broke down out of it’s short term uptrending channel on Tuesday.

If SPX (S & P 500)/the market is about to experience a substantial decline and take out the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which appears likely, then, this short term Wave A downcycle (since late 12-17-08) is probably part of a larger/longer Wave A downcycle.

Note that, since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in very anemic rollover mode, with the Wave 5 cycle high being the bearish double top cycle high at 918.85 on 12-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

For GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau)/the gold/silver stock sector this strength is probably a countertrend Wave B up of a big short term Wave A downcycle, of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.

Since GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) broke out and hit a 5% major buy signal (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) a few weeks ago, there's a significant but probably small chance of an upside surprise.

Looking at the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator (-0.57% versus the XAU today/on 12-26, +0.16% on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22) and the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (at -0.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-26-08, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23) the past few days, an upside surprise appears unlikely.

Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.

Note that reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM has a bearish large spike on 12-17-08's bearish red (close below the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was bearish today, at -0.57% versus the XAU on 12-26, was +0.16% on 12-24, was a very bearish -1.60% on 12-23-08, and, was a bearish -0.95% on 12-22-08.

So, while GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) broke out the week before last and hit a 5% major buy signal, short term a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle/correction has begun. See Friday 12-19-08's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/12/reliable-gold-sector-lead-indicator.html for more details.

Obviously, the Madoff scandal and it's reverberations, the US auto industry uncertainty and layoffs/major plant idling, and, the overall state of the economy/financial institutions, are major negatives for the market.

For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish recently, at
+0.28% versus the XOI today/on 12-26, +1.17% on 12-24, +0.97% on 12-23, +1.65% on 12-22, -2.08% on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08, breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShare (FXP) ETF Looks Good For Friday

UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShare (FXP, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fxp) ETF looks good for Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fxp&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, note the two large bullish breakaway gaps on Monday 12-22 and Tuesday 12-23, and, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred shortly before session's end on Monday 12-22-08.

Also, it looks like FXP bottomed shortly before session's end today 12-24-08, note the bullish white candle with a bullish large inverse spike, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fxp&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, I might trade FXP early on Friday 12-26-08. FXP has an upside gap at 43.39, that might get filled in the next few sessions.

FXP (UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShare ETF) appears to have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern at mid December 2008's cycle low at 31.31, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, since early October 2008's major cycle high at 200.00, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fxp.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Buon Natale! Ciao

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Intraday Broad Market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator Turned Bearish In The Last Two Hours Of Trading

The intraday (not the absolute WMT Lead Indicator, which closed at +0.19% versus the S & P 500 today/on 12-24-08) broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator turned bearish in the last two hours of trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The WMT Lead Indicator was most bullish very early on, and, became less bullish as the session progressed, so, the expected scenario discussed yesterday and earlier today (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/12/spx-s-p-500-is-probably-doing-inverse.html) still appears likely.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) strength/upcycle since late yesterday was anemic/bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish recently, at +0.19% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23, +2.28% on 12-22, +0.31% on 12-19, +2.52% on 12-18, +0.87% on 12-17, which is a very short term bearish indication.

The gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish the past few sessions, at +0.16% versus the XAU today/on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22.

The oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish the past few sessions, at +1.17% versus the XOI today/on 12-24, +0.97% on 12-23, +1.65% on 12-22, which is a very short term bearish indication.

On Friday (apparently a full session, see http://stocks.about.com/od/marketnews/a/011307holidays.htm) I'll be looking to day trade SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or some other ultrashort ETF (TWM/QID or SRS/DUG/SMN).

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Buon Natale! Ciao

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

Yes, SPX (S & P 500) Is Probably Doing An Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 Down Up Down Up Down Pattern Since Late On 12-17-08

Yes, SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is probably doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since late on 12-17-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Note that the upcycle since late yesterday is anemic, and, probably won't break the short term downtrend (Wave A type downcycle) line since late on 12-17-08.

Reliable broad market lead indicator WMT’s (Walmart) short term likely countertrend Wave B type move appears to have peaked three days ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT looks like it broke down out of it’s short term uptrending channel yesterday.

I'm looking to day trade SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) right now. Since it's a short and very slow session today, I might not trade.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Buon Natale! Ciao

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX (S & P 500) Is Probably Doing An Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 Down Up Down Up Down Pattern Since Late On 12-17-08

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave A downcycle (since late 12-17-08) is probably doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, see the intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Wave 5 down should bottom probably early tomorrow. Wave 4 up peaked early today, and, Wave 2 up peaked early on Friday 12-19.

If SPX (S & P 500)/the market is about to experience a substantial decline and take out the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which appears likely, then, this short term Wave A downcycle (since late 12-17-08) is probably part of a larger/longer Wave A downcycle.

Note that, since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in very anemic rollover mode, with the Wave 5 cycle high being a bearish double top, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Reliable broad market lead indicator WMT’s (Walmart) short term likely countertrend Wave B type move appears to have peaked two days ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT looks like it broke down out of it’s short term uptrending channel today.

The broad market WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bullish the past week, at -0.28% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-23, +2.28% on 12-22, +0.31% on 12-19, +2.52% on 12-18, +0.87% on 12-17, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication.

I did two SDS (ultra short S & P 500 (SPX) ETF) trades today (2 minutes 52 seconds and a 7 minuteish one), and, made a little over 21 cents per share = $210+ per 1000 shares traded.

Once the gold/silver stock sector correction ends (GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08), I'll be looking to trade GDX/EGO/AEM/SLW etc long overnight (will probably trade short term cycles, holding for a few days), and, I'll probably look to trade ultra short ETFs (SDS, TWM, QID, DUG, SRS, SMN etc) overnight (holding for a few days), when an S & P 500 (SPX) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (should start tomorrow) peaks in about a week.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

My favorite gold/silver stock sector (the metals lag and will probably bottom next year) is the only sector (GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) I know of that is very likely in a (Wave 3) Cyclical Bull Market since late October 2008, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, but, is in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.

GDX/HUI/XAU are in a monster short term Wave A downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.

Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.

Note that reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM has a bearish large spike on 12-17-08's bearish red (close below the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM has a bearish medium spike on yesterday 12-22's candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish today, at -1.60% versus the XAU on 12-23-08, and, was bearish yesterday, at -0.95% versus the XAU on 12-22-08.

So, while GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) broke out the week before last and hit a 5% major buy signal, short term a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle/correction has begun. See Friday's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/12/reliable-gold-sector-lead-indicator.html for more details.

Obviously, the Madoff scandal and it's reverberations, the US auto industry uncertainty and layoffs/major plant idling, and, the overall state of the economy/financial institutions, are major negatives for the market.

For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish recently, at
+0.97% versus the XOI today/on 12-23, +1.65% on 12-22, -2.08% on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08, breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

"Toyota projects first loss in 70 years, bowing to global slowdown"

"Toyota projects first loss in 70 years, bowing to global slowdown," see http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081222/as_japan_toyota.html. Part of the article is below. If you don't want to be scared, DON'T READ IT!

""The tough times are hitting us far faster, wider and deeper than expected," Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe told a gloomy news conference at the company's Nagoya headquarters. "This is an unprecedented crisis requiring urgent action."

Watanabe said a severe drop in demand, especially in the U.S., which accounts for one-third of vehicle sales, and profit erosion from a surging yen were too much for Japan's No. 1 automaker. Overall U.S. auto sales fell to their lowest level in 26 years last month.

"The change that has hit the world economy is of a critical scale that comes once in 100 years," Watanabe said.

Toyota said it expects an operating loss of 150 billion yen ($1.66 billion) for the fiscal year ending in March, compared with an operating profit of 2.27 trillion yen ($25.2 billion) a year earlier."

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX (S & P 500)/The Market Appears To Be Breaking Down/Rolling Over

It's time to turn cautious on SPX (S & P 500)/the market, as I said on 12-18 and 12-19-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a short term bearish double top, and, SPX's (S & P 500) uptrend line of the past few weeks broke down today. Note that SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish medium spike on Friday 12-19-08's candle.

A bearish sign is that most of SPX's (S & P 500) gains since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, came in the FIRST TWO SESSIONS of the upcycle.

The SPX (S & P 500) upcycle since mid/late November 2008 appears to be rolling over, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with a substantial correction/downcycle possibly about to occur, and, obviously the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02 will probably be taken out.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish today, and, recently, at +2.28% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-22, +0.31% on 12-19, +2.52% on 12-18, +0.87% on 12-17, which is a very short term bearish indication.

The intraday Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator became increasingly bullish as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which made day trading difficult, but, I did two SDS (ultra short S & P 500 (SPX) ETF) trades today (2 minutes 18 seconds and 34 seconds), and, made a little over 22 cents per share = $220+ per 1000 shares traded.

SDS, the ultra short S & P 500 (SPX) ETF, appears to have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, since late November 2008's monster spike/cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sds, and, note the bullish medium/large inverse spike at the potential major cycle low at 79.12 on 12-17-08.

Since bottoming at 79.12 SDS has done an up down up on the daily chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sds, and, was doing Wave 4 down at session's end today 12-22-08, so, tomorrow I'll look to day trade an SDS very short term Wave 5 upcycle.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

SRS (ultra short real estate ETF) appears to have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, since late November 2008's monster spike/cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?srs, and, note the bullish large inverse spike at the potential major cycle low at 52.10 on Wednesday 12-17-08. SRS should bottom at 53ish in the next day or two, based on the nature of cycles (upcycle starting out relatively flat), if it bottomed at 52.10 last week.

DUG (ultra short Oil and Gas ETF, potential major cycle low at 27.79) appears to have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, since early October 2008's monster spike/cycle high at 86.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) gapped down from 39.17 at Thursday 12-18-08's open, and, it filled that gap today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, NEM no longer has a bearish breakaway upside gap at 39.17.

Note that NEM has a bearish large spike on 12-17-08's bearish red (close below the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM has a bearish medium spike on today's candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was bearish today, at -0.95% versus the XAU on 12-22-08.

So, while GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) broke out the week before last and hit a 5% major buy signal, short term a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle/correction has probably begun. See Friday's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/12/reliable-gold-sector-lead-indicator.html for more details.

The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is bearish recently,
at a bearish -0.95% versus the XAU today/on 12-22, at a bullish +0.75% on 12-19-08, at an extremely bullish +2.33% on 12-18-08 (correctly was a very short term bearish indication), -1.14% on 12-17-08, -1.16% on 12-16, +1.14% on 12-15, +0.75% on 12-12, -1.11% on 12-11, -1.03% on 12-10, +1.89% on 12-9, -2.70% on 12-8, -0.30% on 12-5.

Obviously, the Madoff scandal and it's reverberations, the US auto industry uncertainty and layoffs/major plant idling, and, the overall state of the economy/financial institutions, are major negatives for the market.

For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is super bearish recently, at
+1.65% versus the XOI today/on 12-22, -2.08% on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08, breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The Savvy Non Contrarian Gold Commercial Traders Made An Aggressive Short Trade In The Five Day Period Ending 12-16-08

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders made an aggressive short trade in the five day period ending 12-16-08, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, adding 30,657 short gold futures and options contracts, while the blundering gold speculators, including some gold "gurus" (LOL!), made an aggressive long trade in the five day period ending 12-16-08, adding 25,912 long gold futures and options contracts, right near a final Wave 5 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since the Wave A major intermediate term (since 3-17-08) cycle low at $681 in late October 2008.

These latest gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data changes are the largest I've seen in months, and, the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders went aggressively short near a likely countertrend Wave B intermediate term cycle high on Wednesday 12-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, while the blundering gold speculators, including some gold "gurus" (LOL!), went aggressively long.

The gold cycle low at $681 in late October 2008 was probably the Wave A cycle low of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 (remember that gold lags, bottoming in April 2001 versus late 2000 for HUI/XAU). The final Wave C/Cyclical Bear Market cycle low "should" bottom at $450 to $550.

However, given the massive deflationary forces at work in the economy and the markets, a final gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low below $450 obviously won't be a shocker.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500)/The Market Appears To Be Breaking Down/Rolling Over

It's time to turn cautious on SPX (S & P 500)/the market as I said yesterday 12-18-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a short term bearish double top, and, is in an ascending triangle formation the past two weeks+.

We need to see if SPX's (S & P 500) uptrend line of the past few weeks holds, and, if it can break out of the ascending triangle formation, which is doubtful, because, SPX/the market appears to be breaking down/rolling over, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note that SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish medium spike on today 12-19-08's candle.

A bearish sign is that most of SPX's (S & P 500) gains since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, came in the FIRST TWO SESSIONS of the upcycle.

The SPX (S & P 500) upcycle since mid/late November 2008 appears to be rolling over, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with a substantial correction/downcycle possibly about to occur, and, obviously the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02 might be taken out.

Until SPX (S & P 500) can clearly break out of it's anemic ascending triangle formation of the past two weeks (doubtful), caution is a very good idea.

On Monday 12-22-08 I'll look to day trade SDS/QID/TWM (ultra short SPX/NDX/RUT ETFs), SRS (ultra short real estate ETF, that appears to have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, since late November 2008's monster spike/cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?srs, and, note the bullish large inverse spike at the potential major cycle low at 52.10 on Wednesday 12-17-08), or DUG (ultra short Oil and Gas ETF).

Also, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) appears to be doing a countertrend move the past week, and, has been putting in bearish medium/large spikes the past four days, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.31% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-19-08, was an extremely bullish +2.52% versus SPX (S & P 500) yesterday/on 12-18-08, which was a very short term bearish indication, and, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was extremely bearish prior to yesterday, at +0.87% on 12-17, -4.17% on 12-16, +1.42% on 12-15, -0.99% on 12-12, +2.02% on 12-11, -2.19% on 12-10, -0.73% on 12-9, -4.96% on 12-8, +1.98% on 12-5.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) gapped down from 39.17 at yesterday 12-18-08's open, and, it failed to fill that gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, NEM has a bearish breakaway upside gap at 39.17 now. Note also that NEM has a bearish large spike on 12-17-08's bearish red (close below the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

So, while GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) broke out last week and hit a 5% major buy signal, short term a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle/correction has probably begun. See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/12/reliable-gold-sector-lead-indicator.html for more details.

The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is bearish/neutral recently, at a bullish
+0.75% versus the XAU today/on 12-19-08, at an extremely bullish +2.33% on 12-18-08 (correctly was a very short term bearish indication), -1.14% on 12-17-08, -1.16% on 12-16, +1.14% on 12-15, +0.75% on 12-12, -1.11% on 12-11, -1.03% on 12-10, +1.89% on 12-9, -2.70% on 12-8, -0.30% on 12-5.

Obviously, the Madoff scandal and it's reverberations, the US auto industry uncertainty and layoffs/major plant idling, and, the overall state of the economy/financial institutions, are major negatives for the market.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is super bearish recently, at
-2.08% versus the XOI today/on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08, breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

Reliable Gold Sector Lead Indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) Has A Failed Elliott Wave 12345 Up Down Up Down Up Pattern Since Late October 2008

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) has a failed Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, since the late November 2008 cycle low ("Wave 2 down") took out the late October 2008 cycle low.

However, NEM has a bullish double bottom in late October 2008/late November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM has obviously acted extremely well since the late November 2008 likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low, approximately doubling.

Also, there's a good chance that NEM's 12-17-08 cycle high (large bearish spike on a bearish red (close below the open) candle) is a short term Wave 3 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, for the likely Wave 1 monthly upcycle (and the start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) that began in late November 2008, but, it's also a Wave 5 cycle high for the "upcycle" since late October 2008.

In this case, reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining's (NEM) failed Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) since late October 2008 is probably only near term bearish for NEM and GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector, because, NEM (great action, approximately doubled since late November 2008) and GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector broke out/hit a 5% major buy signal last week, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, have been acting extremely well.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) will probably succeed in completing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (Wave 1 monthly upcycle) since late November 2008's likely Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low, meaning that NEM will probably bottom above the early December 2008 likely short term Wave 2 cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), in this monster likely short term Wave 4 downcycle since 12-17-08.

However, GDX/HUI/XAU have probably entered a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, since they've done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late October 2008.

Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx).

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

HUI/XAU have a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, they broke out/hit a 5% major buy signal last week as previously discussed (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).

So, the good times are very likely back (thanks to the breakout last week/5% major buy signal) for GDX/HUI/XAU and most of the gold/silver stock sector, but, a healthy correction has probably begun.

The fact that the major averages are probably about to break down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, means that the gold/silver stock sector correction is likely to be a severe one. It probably would have been severe anyway, given the spectacular gains that occurred in the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.

Another large bullish GDX/HUI/XAU breakaway gap was created at 12-15-08's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) gapped up from 28.67 to 29.65 at 12-15-08's open, adding to the two large bullish breakaway gaps from last week, at 25.41 and 23.23. Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI