The Savvy Non Contrarian Gold Commercial Traders Made An Aggressive Short Trade In The Five Day Period Ending 12-16-08

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders made an aggressive short trade in the five day period ending 12-16-08, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, adding 30,657 short gold futures and options contracts, while the blundering gold speculators, including some gold "gurus" (LOL!), made an aggressive long trade in the five day period ending 12-16-08, adding 25,912 long gold futures and options contracts, right near a final Wave 5 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since the Wave A major intermediate term (since 3-17-08) cycle low at $681 in late October 2008.

These latest gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data changes are the largest I've seen in months, and, the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders went aggressively short near a likely countertrend Wave B intermediate term cycle high on Wednesday 12-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, while the blundering gold speculators, including some gold "gurus" (LOL!), went aggressively long.

The gold cycle low at $681 in late October 2008 was probably the Wave A cycle low of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 (remember that gold lags, bottoming in April 2001 versus late 2000 for HUI/XAU). The final Wave C/Cyclical Bear Market cycle low "should" bottom at $450 to $550.

However, given the massive deflationary forces at work in the economy and the markets, a final gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low below $450 obviously won't be a shocker.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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