There's A New Annotated XAU Chart, That Shows The GDX/HUI/XAU 5% Follow Through Major Buy Signal, That Occurred On 12-10-08
There's a new annotated XAU chart, that shows the XAU 5% follow through major buy signal that occurred on 12-10-08 (GDX/HUI also hit a 5% major buy signal), see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU 5% follow through major buy signal actually appears to have occurred a day or two earlier in that chart, but, in the Yahoo six month XAU chart, which is what I used for the original 12-10-08 Blog entry, the earliest that a 5% follow through major buy signal might have occurred would have been on 12-9-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU 5% follow through major buy signal/breakout indicates that a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since mid March 2008) cycle low very likely occurred in late October 2008.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has two large likely bullish breakaway gaps at 23.23 and 25.41, that were created at the open on 12-8-08 and 12-10-08.
HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since late October 2008 will probably last 8 to 10 years or more. The HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market lasted from late 2000 until mid March 2008, which was a little under 7.5 years. The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since late October 2008 could last 8 to 10 years or more, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger and longer in duration than Wave 1 upcycles.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The XAU 5% follow through major buy signal actually appears to have occurred a day or two earlier in that chart, but, in the Yahoo six month XAU chart, which is what I used for the original 12-10-08 Blog entry, the earliest that a 5% follow through major buy signal might have occurred would have been on 12-9-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU 5% follow through major buy signal/breakout indicates that a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since mid March 2008) cycle low very likely occurred in late October 2008.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has two large likely bullish breakaway gaps at 23.23 and 25.41, that were created at the open on 12-8-08 and 12-10-08.
HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since late October 2008 will probably last 8 to 10 years or more. The HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market lasted from late 2000 until mid March 2008, which was a little under 7.5 years. The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since late October 2008 could last 8 to 10 years or more, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger and longer in duration than Wave 1 upcycles.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:26 PM
2 Comments:
There were two comments that, for some reason, didn't show up after I approved them (at least not yet), unless I accidentally rejected them.
"Hello,
Hasn't gold bottomed out in late 1999 on a monthly basis?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djiagold1980.html
Am I missing something?
Thanks
Vikky "
Hi Vikky,
Gold put in a double bottom at $254ish in 1999 and April 2001. For double bottoms the Elliott Wave count begins at the second bottom.
In many cases the second double bottom cycle low is slightly lower, in which case the Elliott Wave count obviously must start at the lower cycle low.
In the case of gold the 1999 cycle low was slightly lower I believe, but, it makes sense to start the count in April 2001.
Comment two (primaprova's comment):
"hi joe,
i m reading everyday your blog's precious indication, and using them to help my improving knowledge.
thanks a lot!
my question: are you sure the hui w2 correction is over after a simple abc to 250? i was expecting w 4(present, IMO)and 5 (as you stated recently to understand one correction's over), in order to reach down the 240 level (fibo 61,8). your comments will be very appreciated. thanks again
Hi primaprova, thanks for the kind words. Since a 5% major buy signal occurred for GDX/HUI/XAU on 12-10-08, that indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred. Good luck. Joe F
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:31 PM
Another comment from Vikky:
So, if Gold bottomed out in 1999 and XAU/HUI bottomed in late 2000, does it mean that Gold leads xau/hui.
If so, has gold made its bottom in the present correction?
My response: Gold put in a near perfect double bottom in 1999 and April 2001. My experience at many times in recent years is that gold lags.
For example HUI/XAI peaked in November 2003, before gold did. Most gold stocks have been a disaster since May 2006, whereas gold peaked in March 2008. Recently, since late October 2008, HUI/XAU have been very strong, whereas, gold has been lethargic.
Gold will probably bottom next year/2009, in the $350 to $400 range, due to the extremely deflationary economic environment.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:59 PM
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