Reliable Broad Market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) Put in a Very Large Very Bearish Spike Shortly Before Session's End
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a very large very bearish spike shortly before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. WMT looks like it'll bottom early tomorrow in the 53 to 54 range.
WMT also has a large bearish spike on the daily candlestick chart today 12-4-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +4.27% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-4, which is a very short term bearish indication.
The S & P 500 (SPX) appears to be in a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type move at session's end today 12-4, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which jives with the Walmart (WMT) analysis above.
I'll look to ultra short SPX early tomorrow via SDS. Today, I actually day traded SPX ultra long via SSO, and, made a little over 4 cents/share/$40+ per 1000 shares traded, in a one minute 19 second trade.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +4.32% versus the XAU today/on 12-4, which is a very short term bearish indication.
The oil and gas sector XOM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.19% versus the XOI today/on 12-4, which is a very short term bearish indication.
Today's earlier post, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/12/it-doesnt-look-like-spx-s-p-500-will.html, discusses the situation regarding 12-1-08's likely bearish breakaway gap (at 896.24 for SPX).
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart's (WMT) upcycle since early/mid October 2008's cycle low at 47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, obviously isn't a strong/bullish one, which suggests that the market (SPX and most indexes/sectors) probably hasn't bottomed yet.
The fact that reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out it's late October 2008 cycle low (21.40) on Thursday 11-20-08 (21.17), means that GDX/HUI/XAU have a good chance of doing the same.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
WMT also has a large bearish spike on the daily candlestick chart today 12-4-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +4.27% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-4, which is a very short term bearish indication.
The S & P 500 (SPX) appears to be in a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type move at session's end today 12-4, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which jives with the Walmart (WMT) analysis above.
I'll look to ultra short SPX early tomorrow via SDS. Today, I actually day traded SPX ultra long via SSO, and, made a little over 4 cents/share/$40+ per 1000 shares traded, in a one minute 19 second trade.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +4.32% versus the XAU today/on 12-4, which is a very short term bearish indication.
The oil and gas sector XOM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.19% versus the XOI today/on 12-4, which is a very short term bearish indication.
Today's earlier post, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/12/it-doesnt-look-like-spx-s-p-500-will.html, discusses the situation regarding 12-1-08's likely bearish breakaway gap (at 896.24 for SPX).
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart's (WMT) upcycle since early/mid October 2008's cycle low at 47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, obviously isn't a strong/bullish one, which suggests that the market (SPX and most indexes/sectors) probably hasn't bottomed yet.
The fact that reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out it's late October 2008 cycle low (21.40) on Thursday 11-20-08 (21.17), means that GDX/HUI/XAU have a good chance of doing the same.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:35 PM
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