Today's Substantial SPX (S & P 500)/Market Bounce Was A Countertrend Wave B Rebound
Today's substantial SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/market bounce was a countertrend Wave B type rebound, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, following yesterday's Wave A type crash. SPX ended the session in the third/final Wave 5 of the countertrend Wave B type rebound, that looks like it'll peak early tomorrow.
It's unlikely that SPX (S & P 500) will fill yesterday 12-1-08's upside gap at 896.24 early tomorrow, so, it's a likely bearish breakaway gap.
I'll be looking to ultra short SPX via SDS early tomorrow.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at an extremely bearish -3.16% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-2, points to early strength tomorrow 12-3, followed by likely severe weakness. Most sectors/indexes will probably experience severe weakness tomorrow.
Also, the SPX Volatility Index VIX fell -8.07%, versus SPX (S & P 500) rising +3.99%, which is a very sharp +4.08% rise in complacency/decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to some severe weakness tomorrow 12-3-08.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart's (WMT) upcycle since early/mid October 2008's cycle low at 47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, obviously isn't a strong/bullish one, which suggests that the market (SPX and most indexes/sectors) probably hasn't bottomed yet.
The fact that reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out it's late October 2008 cycle low (21.40) on Thursday 11-20-08 (21.17), means that GDX/HUI/XAU have a good chance of doing the same.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
It's unlikely that SPX (S & P 500) will fill yesterday 12-1-08's upside gap at 896.24 early tomorrow, so, it's a likely bearish breakaway gap.
I'll be looking to ultra short SPX via SDS early tomorrow.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at an extremely bearish -3.16% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-2, points to early strength tomorrow 12-3, followed by likely severe weakness. Most sectors/indexes will probably experience severe weakness tomorrow.
Also, the SPX Volatility Index VIX fell -8.07%, versus SPX (S & P 500) rising +3.99%, which is a very sharp +4.08% rise in complacency/decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to some severe weakness tomorrow 12-3-08.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart's (WMT) upcycle since early/mid October 2008's cycle low at 47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, obviously isn't a strong/bullish one, which suggests that the market (SPX and most indexes/sectors) probably hasn't bottomed yet.
The fact that reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out it's late October 2008 cycle low (21.40) on Thursday 11-20-08 (21.17), means that GDX/HUI/XAU have a good chance of doing the same.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:20 PM
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