SPX (S & P 500) Appears to Have Put in a Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Late Today
SPX (S & P 500) appears to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low late today 11-18-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bullish inverse spike on today's bullish white (close above the open) candle.
11-13-08's potentially important SPX (S & P 500) cycle low (Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) cycle low or maybe a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began) held today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, SPX (S & P 500) appears to have entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 2 downcycle (since late Friday 11-14-08) did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave A = Wave 1 down bottomed early yesterday 11-17-08, then, Wave B up = Wave 2 up peaked mid session yesterday, followed by Wave C down, which did a pronounced down up down pattern, that appears to have bottomed late today.
After SPX (S & P 500) completed the short term Wave 2 down's inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, I did an SSO day trade, and, netted 5 and a half cents per share late today (I'll take it, I made a significant amount of $).
The extremely bullish 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (+0.78% versus SPX today/on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10) points to early weakness tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, because, the fact that SPX (S & P 500)/the market didn't respond much to such a bullish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, allowing it to become extremely bullish, is a very short term bearish indication.
Tomorrow, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM, or, I'll look to day trade GDX/AEM/EGO/SSRI long, if the very short term Wave 2 down bottoms, or, I might trade the XOI ultra long via DIG, if the XOI bottoms. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
GDX/HUI/XAU (the gold/silver stock sector) appear to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 11-13-08, and, an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in late October, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. It looks like 11-13-08's cycle low will hold tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The extremely bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +2.05% versus the XAU today/on 11-18, and, at +1.23% on 11-17, is a very short term bearish indication.
The XOI probably put in a Wave 4 of Wave 3 cycle low on 11-13-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, of an anemic countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle, that began on 10-10-08.
The extremely bullish XOM Lead Indicator, at +0.50% versus the XOI today/on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, is a very short term bearish indication.
For more info see yesterday's update at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/11/spx-s-p-500-will-probably-test-thursday.html.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
11-13-08's potentially important SPX (S & P 500) cycle low (Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) cycle low or maybe a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began) held today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, SPX (S & P 500) appears to have entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 2 downcycle (since late Friday 11-14-08) did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave A = Wave 1 down bottomed early yesterday 11-17-08, then, Wave B up = Wave 2 up peaked mid session yesterday, followed by Wave C down, which did a pronounced down up down pattern, that appears to have bottomed late today.
After SPX (S & P 500) completed the short term Wave 2 down's inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, I did an SSO day trade, and, netted 5 and a half cents per share late today (I'll take it, I made a significant amount of $).
The extremely bullish 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (+0.78% versus SPX today/on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10) points to early weakness tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, because, the fact that SPX (S & P 500)/the market didn't respond much to such a bullish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, allowing it to become extremely bullish, is a very short term bearish indication.
Tomorrow, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM, or, I'll look to day trade GDX/AEM/EGO/SSRI long, if the very short term Wave 2 down bottoms, or, I might trade the XOI ultra long via DIG, if the XOI bottoms. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
GDX/HUI/XAU (the gold/silver stock sector) appear to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 11-13-08, and, an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in late October, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. It looks like 11-13-08's cycle low will hold tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The extremely bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +2.05% versus the XAU today/on 11-18, and, at +1.23% on 11-17, is a very short term bearish indication.
The XOI probably put in a Wave 4 of Wave 3 cycle low on 11-13-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, of an anemic countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle, that began on 10-10-08.
The extremely bullish XOM Lead Indicator, at +0.50% versus the XOI today/on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, is a very short term bearish indication.
For more info see yesterday's update at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/11/spx-s-p-500-will-probably-test-thursday.html.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:57 PM
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