Reliable Broad Market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) Holds the Key
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) holds the key, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT needs to break out of the downtrending channel since early November's cycle high at 57.25.
Today 11-21-08's white candle with a large inverse spike is obviously a bullish candle, so, there's hope. However, the broad market WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.87% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-21.
Walmart's (WMT) very large very bearish spike on yesterday 11-20-08's candle is obviously a huge negative, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Also, WMT appears to possibly be in a big Wave C downcycle since the cycle high at 57.25 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
It isn't clearcut (funky chart, definitely bearish though), but, until WMT breaks out of it's downtrending channel since early November, one has to assume that a big Wave C downcycle is probably in effect. The cycle low at 47 appears to be a Wave A type cycle low, which means that WMT should bottom well below 47 in the near future, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
SPX's (S & P 500) white candle with a medium inverse spike is bullish, but, is probably just an important short term or very short term cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have broken out today in a huge way (up +25.17%!), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, potentially putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 21.17 yesterday 11-20-08, versus the bullish double bottom cycle low at 21.40 in late October 2008. Note that yesterday's candle has a bullish large inverse spike.
If NEM (and GDX/HUI/XAU, GDX was up +26.54%!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has finally bottomed/broken out and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, it should follow through for a session or two, but, it'll still have to hit a 5% major buy signal.
The fact that both the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator (-1.54% versus the XAU today/on 11-21), and, the broad market WMT Lead Indicator (-1.87% versus SPX today/on 11-21), that's used in concert with the sector lead indicator, were very bearish today, is obviously not a good sign. But, since volatility is "super extreme," the lead indicators might be less bearish than they seem. We'll see.
The XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) is probably doing a countertrend Wave B type rebound (probably a Wave B of Wave C move, which is probably Wave 4 up of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
Reliable Oil and Gas sector lead indicator Exxon Mobil (XOM) is doing a countertrend Wave B up, after doing a Wave A down to 68.30, following the recent cycle high at 77.75, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom.
I'll be looking to ultra short the XOI via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?DUG) early on Monday, since the XOI ended the session in Wave 5 peaking (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late Thursday 11-20-08), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
DUG appears to have put in a major cycle low at 33.83 recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?DUG, but, I'm glad I'm not long DUG overnight right now. The mind boggling volatility and chart is scary. Today's candle has a bearish large spike.
Ultra shorting SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM is an alternate trade on Monday. I'll be looking for large bearish breakaway type gaps at Monday's open.
I day traded DUG today, and, made 33.55 cents per share/$335.50 per each 1000 shares, in one minute and 24 seconds. Yesterday's trade was one minute and 7 seconds. I had another good day. The 10 minute chart (entire screen is just 10 minutes, and, the chart moves fast like a video game, pretty cool!, and, extremely useful) is helping a lot.
The lead indicators are as follows:
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (-1.87% versus SPX today/on 11-21, +6.04% on 11-20, +2.89% on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (-1.54% versus the XAU today/on 11-21, +5.22% on 11-20, -0.26% on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at super bullish, which is a very short term very bearish indication (+1.76% versus the XOI today/on 11-21, +4.48% on 11-20, +2.60% on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Today 11-21-08's white candle with a large inverse spike is obviously a bullish candle, so, there's hope. However, the broad market WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.87% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-21.
Walmart's (WMT) very large very bearish spike on yesterday 11-20-08's candle is obviously a huge negative, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Also, WMT appears to possibly be in a big Wave C downcycle since the cycle high at 57.25 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
It isn't clearcut (funky chart, definitely bearish though), but, until WMT breaks out of it's downtrending channel since early November, one has to assume that a big Wave C downcycle is probably in effect. The cycle low at 47 appears to be a Wave A type cycle low, which means that WMT should bottom well below 47 in the near future, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
SPX's (S & P 500) white candle with a medium inverse spike is bullish, but, is probably just an important short term or very short term cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have broken out today in a huge way (up +25.17%!), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, potentially putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 21.17 yesterday 11-20-08, versus the bullish double bottom cycle low at 21.40 in late October 2008. Note that yesterday's candle has a bullish large inverse spike.
If NEM (and GDX/HUI/XAU, GDX was up +26.54%!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has finally bottomed/broken out and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, it should follow through for a session or two, but, it'll still have to hit a 5% major buy signal.
The fact that both the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator (-1.54% versus the XAU today/on 11-21), and, the broad market WMT Lead Indicator (-1.87% versus SPX today/on 11-21), that's used in concert with the sector lead indicator, were very bearish today, is obviously not a good sign. But, since volatility is "super extreme," the lead indicators might be less bearish than they seem. We'll see.
The XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) is probably doing a countertrend Wave B type rebound (probably a Wave B of Wave C move, which is probably Wave 4 up of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
Reliable Oil and Gas sector lead indicator Exxon Mobil (XOM) is doing a countertrend Wave B up, after doing a Wave A down to 68.30, following the recent cycle high at 77.75, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom.
I'll be looking to ultra short the XOI via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?DUG) early on Monday, since the XOI ended the session in Wave 5 peaking (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late Thursday 11-20-08), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
DUG appears to have put in a major cycle low at 33.83 recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?DUG, but, I'm glad I'm not long DUG overnight right now. The mind boggling volatility and chart is scary. Today's candle has a bearish large spike.
Ultra shorting SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM is an alternate trade on Monday. I'll be looking for large bearish breakaway type gaps at Monday's open.
I day traded DUG today, and, made 33.55 cents per share/$335.50 per each 1000 shares, in one minute and 24 seconds. Yesterday's trade was one minute and 7 seconds. I had another good day. The 10 minute chart (entire screen is just 10 minutes, and, the chart moves fast like a video game, pretty cool!, and, extremely useful) is helping a lot.
The lead indicators are as follows:
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (-1.87% versus SPX today/on 11-21, +6.04% on 11-20, +2.89% on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (-1.54% versus the XAU today/on 11-21, +5.22% on 11-20, -0.26% on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at super bullish, which is a very short term very bearish indication (+1.76% versus the XOI today/on 11-21, +4.48% on 11-20, +2.60% on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:21 PM
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