I've Got Some BAD News For The ENTIRE Market
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a very large very bearish spike on today 11-20-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
If you had hoped/assumed that today was an important cycle low for the market, and, that some relief was at hand, you will probably be greatly shaken during the next few days/weeks. There could be an oversold bounce at some point early tomorrow however.
Walmart's (WMT) very large very bearish spike on today 11-20-08's candle is obviously a huge negative. Also, WMT appears to be in a big Wave C downcycle since the cycle high at 57.25 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The cycle low at 47 appears to be a Wave A type cycle low, which means that WMT should bottom well below 47 in the near future, versus a close today at 50.66.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a super bullish +6.04% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-20, which is actually a very bearish indication very short term, because, it means that SPX/the market didn't respond to such a bullish WMT Lead Indicator, allowing it to become super bullish.
A positive very short term is that the market is extremely oversold, so, there could be a good bounce at some point early tomorrow.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out the late October cycle low at 21.40 today, that appeared to potentially be a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low, with a cycle low today at 21.17. This means that GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) are very likely still in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008.
Today's super bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +5.22% versus the XAU today/on 11-20, is a very bearish indication for tomorrow, because, it means that the XAU didn't respond to such a bullish NEM Lead Indicator, allowing it to become super bullish.
I'll be looking to day trade any bounce ultra short, via probably DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug), which broke out today, confirming that 33.83 is a major intermediate term cycle low, as expected.
XOM (Exxon Mobil, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom) has a very large very bearish spike today. The XOM Lead Indicator, at +4.48% versus the XOI today/on 11-20, is a very bearish indication for tomorrow.
Ultra shorting SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM is an alternate trade tomorrow. I'll be looking for large bearish breakaway type gaps at tomorrow's open.
I day traded SDS today, and, made a little over a 1.19 points. I had a good day.
The lead indicators are as follows:
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at super bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+6.04% versus SPX today/on 11-20, +2.89% on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+5.22% versus the XAU today/on 11-20, -0.26% on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+4.48% versus the XOI today/on 11-20, +2.60% on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
If you had hoped/assumed that today was an important cycle low for the market, and, that some relief was at hand, you will probably be greatly shaken during the next few days/weeks. There could be an oversold bounce at some point early tomorrow however.
Walmart's (WMT) very large very bearish spike on today 11-20-08's candle is obviously a huge negative. Also, WMT appears to be in a big Wave C downcycle since the cycle high at 57.25 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The cycle low at 47 appears to be a Wave A type cycle low, which means that WMT should bottom well below 47 in the near future, versus a close today at 50.66.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a super bullish +6.04% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-20, which is actually a very bearish indication very short term, because, it means that SPX/the market didn't respond to such a bullish WMT Lead Indicator, allowing it to become super bullish.
A positive very short term is that the market is extremely oversold, so, there could be a good bounce at some point early tomorrow.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out the late October cycle low at 21.40 today, that appeared to potentially be a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low, with a cycle low today at 21.17. This means that GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) are very likely still in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008.
Today's super bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +5.22% versus the XAU today/on 11-20, is a very bearish indication for tomorrow, because, it means that the XAU didn't respond to such a bullish NEM Lead Indicator, allowing it to become super bullish.
I'll be looking to day trade any bounce ultra short, via probably DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug), which broke out today, confirming that 33.83 is a major intermediate term cycle low, as expected.
XOM (Exxon Mobil, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom) has a very large very bearish spike today. The XOM Lead Indicator, at +4.48% versus the XOI today/on 11-20, is a very bearish indication for tomorrow.
Ultra shorting SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM is an alternate trade tomorrow. I'll be looking for large bearish breakaway type gaps at tomorrow's open.
I day traded SDS today, and, made a little over a 1.19 points. I had a good day.
The lead indicators are as follows:
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at super bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+6.04% versus SPX today/on 11-20, +2.89% on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+5.22% versus the XAU today/on 11-20, -0.26% on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+4.48% versus the XOI today/on 11-20, +2.60% on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:10 PM
1 Comments:
GM hit 1.70 (session cycle low) today 11-20-08, and, Ford (F) hit 1.01, almost becoming a penny stock. Drastic action must be taken to preserve the US auto industry.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:09 PM
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