I've Got Some Bad News For My Fellow Gold Bugs
I've got some bad news for my fellow gold bugs. The gold/silver stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) might not have bottomed/entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008, see HUI's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note the large bearish spike on today 11-19-08's bearish red (close below the open) candle.
It's very doubtful that HUI's 11-13-08 cycle low at 161.27 is a short term Wave 2 cycle low, and, it's now doubtful that HUI's cycle low at 150.27 in late October was a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
A similar situation exists for reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM took out 11-13-08's cycle low at 22.58 today, which appeared to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low.
This means that it's very likely that HUI/XAU will take take out the 11-13-08 cycle low. There's also a good chance that NEM and HUI/XAU will take out their late October cycle lows, which means that they are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 for NEM, and, since mid March 2008 for HUI/XAU.
With the massive amount of commodity, real estate, and economic (very low consumer confidence, very low velocity of money, major economic downcycle, very tight lending, etc) deflation/deflationary factors, I won't be shocked if gold falls to $350-400 or less next year, or, even possibly by year's end.
All gold has to do to be in a Secular Bull Market (since April 2001's cycle low at $254ish) is to bottom above $254ish. Gold could bottom at $255 and it would be in a Secular Bull Market (since April 2001), it just has to be in an uptrend. Don't be shocked if gold bottoms BELOW $300. Below $300 will be surprising to me, but, below $400 won't be.
The S & P 500 (SPX) took out the 11-13-08 cycle low today, that looked like a potentially important cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Since late Friday 11-14-08 SPX (S & P 500) has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, that looks like it'll bottom early tomorrow.
Also, since the cycle high at 1007.51 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, SPX (S & P 500) is doing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), that looks like it'll probably bottom early tomorrow 11-20-08.
Tomorrow I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM, or, I might trade the XOI ultra long via DIG, if the market bottoms. Since the market was very oversold at session's end, and, will probably be even more oversold early tomorrow, I probably won't day trade short early tomorrow.
Early today I actually day traded NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra long via QLD, and made a little over 11 cents per share/$110+ per each 1000 shares traded, in a four minute 14 second trade. If I had known how much weakness would occur shortly thereafter, I'm sure that I wouldn't have been able to pull the trigger.
For the XOI (Oil and Gas), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, it might have already peaked (the countertrend upcycle since 10-10-08), and, DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), might have bottomed recently at 33.83, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug.
DUG did do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), following it's cycle high at 86.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug. It did a huge Wave A down to 41.80, followed by a countertrend Wave B upcycle to 69.75, followed by a (probably) final Wave C downcycle to 33.83, that did a pronounced down up down pattern, which was Waves 3, 4, and 5 of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern.
I'll be taking a good look at DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug), and, if I'm convinced that DUG has bottomed (likely), I'll be looking to trade it. DUG will probably be my primary trading vehicle, once I'm convinced it's bottomed. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The lead indicators are as follows:
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+2.89% versus SPX today/on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bearish, which is a very short term bullish indication (-0.26% versus the XAU today/on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+2.60% versus the XOI today/on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
It's very doubtful that HUI's 11-13-08 cycle low at 161.27 is a short term Wave 2 cycle low, and, it's now doubtful that HUI's cycle low at 150.27 in late October was a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
A similar situation exists for reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM took out 11-13-08's cycle low at 22.58 today, which appeared to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low.
This means that it's very likely that HUI/XAU will take take out the 11-13-08 cycle low. There's also a good chance that NEM and HUI/XAU will take out their late October cycle lows, which means that they are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 for NEM, and, since mid March 2008 for HUI/XAU.
With the massive amount of commodity, real estate, and economic (very low consumer confidence, very low velocity of money, major economic downcycle, very tight lending, etc) deflation/deflationary factors, I won't be shocked if gold falls to $350-400 or less next year, or, even possibly by year's end.
All gold has to do to be in a Secular Bull Market (since April 2001's cycle low at $254ish) is to bottom above $254ish. Gold could bottom at $255 and it would be in a Secular Bull Market (since April 2001), it just has to be in an uptrend. Don't be shocked if gold bottoms BELOW $300. Below $300 will be surprising to me, but, below $400 won't be.
The S & P 500 (SPX) took out the 11-13-08 cycle low today, that looked like a potentially important cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Since late Friday 11-14-08 SPX (S & P 500) has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, that looks like it'll bottom early tomorrow.
Also, since the cycle high at 1007.51 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, SPX (S & P 500) is doing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), that looks like it'll probably bottom early tomorrow 11-20-08.
Tomorrow I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM, or, I might trade the XOI ultra long via DIG, if the market bottoms. Since the market was very oversold at session's end, and, will probably be even more oversold early tomorrow, I probably won't day trade short early tomorrow.
Early today I actually day traded NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra long via QLD, and made a little over 11 cents per share/$110+ per each 1000 shares traded, in a four minute 14 second trade. If I had known how much weakness would occur shortly thereafter, I'm sure that I wouldn't have been able to pull the trigger.
For the XOI (Oil and Gas), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, it might have already peaked (the countertrend upcycle since 10-10-08), and, DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), might have bottomed recently at 33.83, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug.
DUG did do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), following it's cycle high at 86.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug. It did a huge Wave A down to 41.80, followed by a countertrend Wave B upcycle to 69.75, followed by a (probably) final Wave C downcycle to 33.83, that did a pronounced down up down pattern, which was Waves 3, 4, and 5 of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern.
I'll be taking a good look at DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug), and, if I'm convinced that DUG has bottomed (likely), I'll be looking to trade it. DUG will probably be my primary trading vehicle, once I'm convinced it's bottomed. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The lead indicators are as follows:
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+2.89% versus SPX today/on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bearish, which is a very short term bullish indication (-0.26% versus the XAU today/on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+2.60% versus the XOI today/on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:32 PM
1 Comments:
Reliable lead indicator NEM took out it's late October cycle low at 21.40 today 11-20-08, with a cycle low so far at 21.17. HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector remains in a Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008.
It looks like Ford (F) might be a penny stock at session's end today, we'll see. It hit 1.01 a few minutes ago. GM could be a penny stock at session's end today, it hit 1.70 so far. Insane. They need to take drastic action.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:27 AM
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