It's Likely That SPX (S & P 500) Will Fill 12-1-08's Upside Gap at 896.24 Early Tomorrow
It now appears likely that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will fill 12-1-08's upside gap at 896.24 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX ended the session in the third/final Wave 5 of the countertrend Wave B type rebound (or similar rollover peaking action), which began just before 12-1's close, and, looks like it'll peak early tomorrow.
Note that SPX put in a very large very bullish inverse spike shortly before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which suggests that SPX will probably fill 12-1-08's upside gap at 896.24 early tomorrow. I'll be looking to ultra short SPX via SDS early tomorrow, probably shortly after that upside gap gets filled.
The substantial SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/market bounce (began just before 12-1's close) is a countertrend Wave B type rebound, or, is similar rollover peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, following 12-1-08's Wave A type crash.
I'll be looking to ultra short SPX via SDS early tomorrow. I day traded SDS today, and, made about 65 cents per share/$650 for each 1000 shares traded, in one minute and 52 seconds.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at a bearish
-0.84% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-3-08, and, at an extremely bearish -3.16% on 12-2, points to likely severe weakness tomorrow 12-4, following likely early strength. Most sectors/indexes will probably experience severe weakness tomorrow.
Also, the SPX Volatility Index VIX fell -3.59% today 12-3, versus SPX (S & P 500) rising +2.58%, which is a significant +1.01% rise in complacency (-1.01% decline in the SPX wall of worry), that points to some significant weakness early tomorrow 12-4-08.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart's (WMT) upcycle since early/mid October 2008's cycle low at 47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, obviously isn't a strong/bullish one, which suggests that the market (SPX and most indexes/sectors) probably hasn't bottomed yet.
The fact that reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out it's late October 2008 cycle low (21.40) on Thursday 11-20-08 (21.17), means that GDX/HUI/XAU have a good chance of doing the same.
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -4.37% versus the XAU today/on 12-3-08.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
SPX ended the session in the third/final Wave 5 of the countertrend Wave B type rebound (or similar rollover peaking action), which began just before 12-1's close, and, looks like it'll peak early tomorrow.
Note that SPX put in a very large very bullish inverse spike shortly before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which suggests that SPX will probably fill 12-1-08's upside gap at 896.24 early tomorrow. I'll be looking to ultra short SPX via SDS early tomorrow, probably shortly after that upside gap gets filled.
The substantial SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/market bounce (began just before 12-1's close) is a countertrend Wave B type rebound, or, is similar rollover peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, following 12-1-08's Wave A type crash.
I'll be looking to ultra short SPX via SDS early tomorrow. I day traded SDS today, and, made about 65 cents per share/$650 for each 1000 shares traded, in one minute and 52 seconds.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at a bearish
-0.84% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-3-08, and, at an extremely bearish -3.16% on 12-2, points to likely severe weakness tomorrow 12-4, following likely early strength. Most sectors/indexes will probably experience severe weakness tomorrow.
Also, the SPX Volatility Index VIX fell -3.59% today 12-3, versus SPX (S & P 500) rising +2.58%, which is a significant +1.01% rise in complacency (-1.01% decline in the SPX wall of worry), that points to some significant weakness early tomorrow 12-4-08.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart's (WMT) upcycle since early/mid October 2008's cycle low at 47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, obviously isn't a strong/bullish one, which suggests that the market (SPX and most indexes/sectors) probably hasn't bottomed yet.
The fact that reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out it's late October 2008 cycle low (21.40) on Thursday 11-20-08 (21.17), means that GDX/HUI/XAU have a good chance of doing the same.
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -4.37% versus the XAU today/on 12-3-08.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:45 PM
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