SPX (S & P 500) Might Fill 12-8-08's Downside Gap at 876.07 Early Tomorrow

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) might fill 12-8-08's downside gap at 876.07 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The extremely bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -2.19% versus SPX today/on 12-10-08, points to early strength tomorrow 12-11-08, since it's a very bullish indication on a very short term basis, because, the market didn't decline as it normally would, with such a bearish WMT Lead Indicator.

SPX (S & P 500) put in a Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 (since 12-1-08) cycle high late on 12-8-08 (mistakenly said 12-9-08 yesterday), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Since the Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 (since 12-1-08) cycle high on 12-8-08 SPX (S & P 500) did a Wave A down move that bottomed late yesterday, followed by a Wave B up type move that peaked at mid session today, then, SPX did Wave A of Wave C, and, was in a likely countertrend Wave B of Wave C type move at session's end today 12-10-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

I'll probably trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) long tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, after likely early weakness. I might trade the UltraShort Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF TWM early tomorrow.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Today I day traded SDS (UltraShort SPX) and made 4 cents/share/$40+ per 1000 shares traded.

GDX has very large very bullish breakaway gaps down at 25.41 and 23.23, created at today 12-10-08's and at 12-8-08's open.

The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.03% versus the XAU today/on 12-10-08, but, the five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator closed at very bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Friday 12-5-08's cycle low is a short term Wave 2 cycle low for GDX/HUI/XAU (as opposed to Wave 4 discussed previously, which jives with NEM's count. The long previous "Wave 3 down," during most of November 2008, was probably/very likely a monthly downcycle, hence, 12-5-08's cycle low is probably a short term Wave 2 cycle low, which is good news for we gold bugs), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, with the short term cycles obviously being huge long ones.

The oil and gas XOM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.61% versus XOI today/on 12-10, and, was -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.

The Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) has upside gaps at 473.14 (filled 12-8-08), 491.23 (filled 12-9-08), 545.97, 619.40, 671.59, 679.58, 704.79, 705.74, and 753.74. There are probably more upside gaps, but, for now, that's all one needs to be concerned with.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed!, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) might finally be over for most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday 12-5-08's bullish white (close above the open) candle, for the XAU, NEM, and, also GDX/HUI.

The fact that reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out it's late October 2008 cycle low (21.40) on Thursday 11-20-08 (21.17), means that GDX/HUI/XAU have a "good chance" of doing the same, though it LOOKS LIKE (MAYBE) they've bottomed.

It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG, and, HUI/XAU might not have even bottomed yet.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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