Trade the Cycles

Saturday, December 06, 2008

The Russell 2000 (RUT) Looks Like a Better Long Than SPX (S & P 500) Or NDX (NASDAQ 100)

The Russell 2000 (RUT) looks like a better long than SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) or NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) right now, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, note the healthy Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle (Wave 1 up of a short term Wave 3) this week ending 12-5-08 (from just before 12-1's close to early 12-4-08), and, note the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle (Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 3) from early 12-4 to early 12-5-08.

The Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) has shown more strength (about +27.50% from trough to peak) since the mid November 2008 potential major cycle low than SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, about +21% from trough to peak) or NDX (NASDAQ 100) have (NDX was about +17%). I'll be looking to trade RUT ultra long via UWM early on Monday.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) has upside gaps at 473.14, 491.23, 545.97, 619.40, 671.59, 679.58, 704.79, 705.74, and 753.74. There are probably more upside gaps, but, for now, that's all one needs to be concerned with.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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