Reliable Gold Sector Lead Indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) Has A Failed Elliott Wave 12345 Up Down Up Down Up Pattern Since Late October 2008
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) has a failed Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, since the late November 2008 cycle low ("Wave 2 down") took out the late October 2008 cycle low.
However, NEM has a bullish double bottom in late October 2008/late November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM has obviously acted extremely well since the late November 2008 likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low, approximately doubling.
Also, there's a good chance that NEM's 12-17-08 cycle high (large bearish spike on a bearish red (close below the open) candle) is a short term Wave 3 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, for the likely Wave 1 monthly upcycle (and the start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) that began in late November 2008, but, it's also a Wave 5 cycle high for the "upcycle" since late October 2008.
In this case, reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining's (NEM) failed Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) since late October 2008 is probably only near term bearish for NEM and GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector, because, NEM (great action, approximately doubled since late November 2008) and GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector broke out/hit a 5% major buy signal last week, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, have been acting extremely well.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) will probably succeed in completing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (Wave 1 monthly upcycle) since late November 2008's likely Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low, meaning that NEM will probably bottom above the early December 2008 likely short term Wave 2 cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), in this monster likely short term Wave 4 downcycle since 12-17-08.
However, GDX/HUI/XAU have probably entered a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, since they've done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late October 2008.
Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx).
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
HUI/XAU have a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, they broke out/hit a 5% major buy signal last week as previously discussed (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
So, the good times are very likely back (thanks to the breakout last week/5% major buy signal) for GDX/HUI/XAU and most of the gold/silver stock sector, but, a healthy correction has probably begun.
The fact that the major averages are probably about to break down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, means that the gold/silver stock sector correction is likely to be a severe one. It probably would have been severe anyway, given the spectacular gains that occurred in the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Another large bullish GDX/HUI/XAU breakaway gap was created at 12-15-08's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) gapped up from 28.67 to 29.65 at 12-15-08's open, adding to the two large bullish breakaway gaps from last week, at 25.41 and 23.23. Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.
It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
However, NEM has a bullish double bottom in late October 2008/late November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM has obviously acted extremely well since the late November 2008 likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low, approximately doubling.
Also, there's a good chance that NEM's 12-17-08 cycle high (large bearish spike on a bearish red (close below the open) candle) is a short term Wave 3 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, for the likely Wave 1 monthly upcycle (and the start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) that began in late November 2008, but, it's also a Wave 5 cycle high for the "upcycle" since late October 2008.
In this case, reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining's (NEM) failed Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) since late October 2008 is probably only near term bearish for NEM and GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector, because, NEM (great action, approximately doubled since late November 2008) and GDX/HUI/XAU/the gold/silver stock sector broke out/hit a 5% major buy signal last week, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, have been acting extremely well.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) will probably succeed in completing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (Wave 1 monthly upcycle) since late November 2008's likely Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low, meaning that NEM will probably bottom above the early December 2008 likely short term Wave 2 cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), in this monster likely short term Wave 4 downcycle since 12-17-08.
However, GDX/HUI/XAU have probably entered a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, since they've done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late October 2008.
Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx).
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
HUI/XAU have a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, they broke out/hit a 5% major buy signal last week as previously discussed (see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
So, the good times are very likely back (thanks to the breakout last week/5% major buy signal) for GDX/HUI/XAU and most of the gold/silver stock sector, but, a healthy correction has probably begun.
The fact that the major averages are probably about to break down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, means that the gold/silver stock sector correction is likely to be a severe one. It probably would have been severe anyway, given the spectacular gains that occurred in the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Another large bullish GDX/HUI/XAU breakaway gap was created at 12-15-08's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) gapped up from 28.67 to 29.65 at 12-15-08's open, adding to the two large bullish breakaway gaps from last week, at 25.41 and 23.23. Watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which will probably get filled in this Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 12-17-08.
It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:08 AM
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