Reliable Broad Market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) Has a Downtrend

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a downtrend, going back to the cycle high at 63.85 in mid September 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Note the bearish large spike on today's bearish red (close below the open) candle.

So, since reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart's (WMT) chart is bearish, one has to be cautious about the major averages and most sectors. The broad market WMT Lead Indicator was a super bearish -6.75% versus the S & P 500 today 11-24-08.

The gold/silver stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) appears to have entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October (metals lag), but, has yet to hit a 5% major buy signal. The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.60% versus the XAU today 11-24, which is a very short term bearish indication.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) appears to have entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 11-20-08, after putting in a cycle low at 21.17, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, but, has yet to hit a 5% major buy signal. NEM has a large bullish inverse spike on 11-20-08's candle, and, has a large bearish spike on today 11-24-08's candle.

The XOI's (AMEX oil and Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) chart pattern obviously isn't a bullish one, so, one has to be cautious about trading it long, if one does so at all.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -3.52% versus the XOI today 11-24-08. DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) took out it's recent cycle low at 33.83 today, that appeared to be a major cycle low. Not surprising.

I'm on travel this week, and, won't be back home until December 1, so, the next full update probably won't be until the 2nd of December.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Reliable Broad Market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) Holds the Key

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) holds the key, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT needs to break out of the downtrending channel since early November's cycle high at 57.25.

Today 11-21-08's white candle with a large inverse spike is obviously a bullish candle, so, there's hope. However, the broad market WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.87% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-21.

Walmart's (WMT) very large very bearish spike on yesterday 11-20-08's candle is obviously a huge negative, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Also, WMT appears to possibly be in a big Wave C downcycle since the cycle high at 57.25 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

It isn't clearcut (funky chart, definitely bearish though), but, until WMT breaks out of it's downtrending channel since early November, one has to assume that a big Wave C downcycle is probably in effect. The cycle low at 47 appears to be a Wave A type cycle low, which means that WMT should bottom well below 47 in the near future, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

SPX's (S & P 500) white candle with a medium inverse spike is bullish, but, is probably just an important short term or very short term cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have broken out today in a huge way (up +25.17%!), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, potentially putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 21.17 yesterday 11-20-08, versus the bullish double bottom cycle low at 21.40 in late October 2008. Note that yesterday's candle has a bullish large inverse spike.

If NEM (and GDX/HUI/XAU, GDX was up +26.54%!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has finally bottomed/broken out and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, it should follow through for a session or two, but, it'll still have to hit a 5% major buy signal.

The fact that both the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator (-1.54% versus the XAU today/on 11-21), and, the broad market WMT Lead Indicator (-1.87% versus SPX today/on 11-21), that's used in concert with the sector lead indicator, were very bearish today, is obviously not a good sign. But, since volatility is "super extreme," the lead indicators might be less bearish than they seem. We'll see.

The XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) is probably doing a countertrend Wave B type rebound (probably a Wave B of Wave C move, which is probably Wave 4 up of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.

Reliable Oil and Gas sector lead indicator Exxon Mobil (XOM) is doing a countertrend Wave B up, after doing a Wave A down to 68.30, following the recent cycle high at 77.75, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom.

I'll be looking to ultra short the XOI via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?DUG) early on Monday, since the XOI ended the session in Wave 5 peaking (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since late Thursday 11-20-08), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

DUG appears to have put in a major cycle low at 33.83 recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?DUG, but, I'm glad I'm not long DUG overnight right now. The mind boggling volatility and chart is scary. Today's candle has a bearish large spike.

Ultra shorting SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM is an alternate trade on Monday. I'll be looking for large bearish breakaway type gaps at Monday's open.

I day traded DUG today, and, made 33.55 cents per share/$335.50 per each 1000 shares, in one minute and 24 seconds. Yesterday's trade was one minute and 7 seconds. I had another good day. The 10 minute chart (entire screen is just 10 minutes, and, the chart moves fast like a video game, pretty cool!, and, extremely useful) is helping a lot.

The lead indicators are as follows:

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (-1.87% versus SPX today/on 11-21, +6.04% on 11-20, +2.89% on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (-1.54% versus the XAU today/on 11-21, +5.22% on 11-20, -0.26% on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at super bullish, which is a very short term very bearish indication (+1.76% versus the XOI today/on 11-21, +4.48% on 11-20, +2.60% on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

.............."Let Detroit Go Bankrupt"

"Let Detroit Go Bankrupt," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/opinion/19romney.html. Mitt Romney nails it. Part of the article is below.

"IF General Motors, Ford and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won’t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.

Without that bailout, Detroit will need to drastically restructure itself. With it, the automakers will stay the course — the suicidal course of declining market shares, insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product inferiority and never-ending job losses. Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check.

I love cars, American cars. I was born in Detroit, the son of an auto chief executive. In 1954, my dad, George Romney, was tapped to run American Motors when its president suddenly died. The company itself was on life support — banks were threatening to deal it a death blow. The stock collapsed. I watched Dad work to turn the company around — and years later at business school, they were still talking about it. From the lessons of that turnaround, and from my own experiences, I have several prescriptions for Detroit’s automakers.

First, their huge disadvantage in costs relative to foreign brands must be eliminated. That means new labor agreements to align pay and benefits to match those of workers at competitors like BMW, Honda, Nissan and Toyota. Furthermore, retiree benefits must be reduced so that the total burden per auto for domestic makers is not higher than that of foreign producers."

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

I've Got Some BAD News For The ENTIRE Market

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a very large very bearish spike on today 11-20-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

If you had hoped/assumed that today was an important cycle low for the market, and, that some relief was at hand, you will probably be greatly shaken during the next few days/weeks. There could be an oversold bounce at some point early tomorrow however.

Walmart's (WMT) very large very bearish spike on today 11-20-08's candle is obviously a huge negative. Also, WMT appears to be in a big Wave C downcycle since the cycle high at 57.25 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The cycle low at 47 appears to be a Wave A type cycle low, which means that WMT should bottom well below 47 in the near future, versus a close today at 50.66.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a super bullish +6.04% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-20, which is actually a very bearish indication very short term, because, it means that SPX/the market didn't respond to such a bullish WMT Lead Indicator, allowing it to become super bullish.

A positive very short term is that the market is extremely oversold, so, there could be a good bounce at some point early tomorrow.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) took out the late October cycle low at 21.40 today, that appeared to potentially be a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low, with a cycle low today at 21.17. This means that GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) are very likely still in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008.

Today's super bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +5.22% versus the XAU today/on 11-20, is a very bearish indication for tomorrow, because, it means that the XAU didn't respond to such a bullish NEM Lead Indicator, allowing it to become super bullish.

I'll be looking to day trade any bounce ultra short, via probably DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug), which broke out today, confirming that 33.83 is a major intermediate term cycle low, as expected.

XOM (Exxon Mobil, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom) has a very large very bearish spike today. The XOM Lead Indicator, at +4.48% versus the XOI today/on 11-20, is a very bearish indication for tomorrow.

Ultra shorting SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM is an alternate trade tomorrow. I'll be looking for large bearish breakaway type gaps at tomorrow's open.

I day traded SDS today, and, made a little over a 1.19 points. I had a good day.

The lead indicators are as follows:

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at super bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+6.04% versus SPX today/on 11-20, +2.89% on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+5.22% versus the XAU today/on 11-20, -0.26% on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+4.48% versus the XOI today/on 11-20, +2.60% on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

I've Got Some Bad News For My Fellow Gold Bugs

I've got some bad news for my fellow gold bugs. The gold/silver stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) might not have bottomed/entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008, see HUI's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note the large bearish spike on today 11-19-08's bearish red (close below the open) candle.

It's very doubtful that HUI's 11-13-08 cycle low at 161.27 is a short term Wave 2 cycle low, and, it's now doubtful that HUI's cycle low at 150.27 in late October was a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.

A similar situation exists for reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM took out 11-13-08's cycle low at 22.58 today, which appeared to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low.

This means that it's very likely that HUI/XAU will take take out the 11-13-08 cycle low. There's also a good chance that NEM and HUI/XAU will take out their late October cycle lows, which means that they are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 for NEM, and, since mid March 2008 for HUI/XAU.

With the massive amount of commodity, real estate, and economic (very low consumer confidence, very low velocity of money, major economic downcycle, very tight lending, etc) deflation/deflationary factors, I won't be shocked if gold falls to $350-400 or less next year, or, even possibly by year's end.

All gold has to do to be in a Secular Bull Market (since April 2001's cycle low at $254ish) is to bottom above $254ish. Gold could bottom at $255 and it would be in a Secular Bull Market (since April 2001), it just has to be in an uptrend. Don't be shocked if gold bottoms BELOW $300. Below $300 will be surprising to me, but, below $400 won't be.

The S & P 500 (SPX) took out the 11-13-08 cycle low today, that looked like a potentially important cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Since late Friday 11-14-08 SPX (S & P 500) has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, that looks like it'll bottom early tomorrow.

Also, since the cycle high at 1007.51 in early November 2008, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, SPX (S & P 500) is doing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), that looks like it'll probably bottom early tomorrow 11-20-08.

Tomorrow I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM, or, I might trade the XOI ultra long via DIG, if the market bottoms. Since the market was very oversold at session's end, and, will probably be even more oversold early tomorrow, I probably won't day trade short early tomorrow.

Early today I actually day traded NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra long via QLD, and made a little over 11 cents per share/$110+ per each 1000 shares traded, in a four minute 14 second trade. If I had known how much weakness would occur shortly thereafter, I'm sure that I wouldn't have been able to pull the trigger.

For the XOI (Oil and Gas), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, it might have already peaked (the countertrend upcycle since 10-10-08), and, DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), might have bottomed recently at 33.83, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug.

DUG did do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), following it's cycle high at 86.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug. It did a huge Wave A down to 41.80, followed by a countertrend Wave B upcycle to 69.75, followed by a (probably) final Wave C downcycle to 33.83, that did a pronounced down up down pattern, which was Waves 3, 4, and 5 of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern.

I'll be taking a good look at DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug), and, if I'm convinced that DUG has bottomed (likely), I'll be looking to trade it. DUG will probably be my primary trading vehicle, once I'm convinced it's bottomed. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The lead indicators are as follows:

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+2.89% versus SPX today/on 11-19, +0.78% on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bearish, which is a very short term bullish indication (-0.26% versus the XAU today/on 11-19, +2.05% on 11-18, +1.23% on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish, which is a very short term bearish indication (+2.60% versus the XOI today/on 11-19, +0.50% on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/



NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Appears to Have Put in a Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Late Today

SPX (S & P 500) appears to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low late today 11-18-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bullish inverse spike on today's bullish white (close above the open) candle.

11-13-08's potentially important SPX (S & P 500) cycle low (Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) cycle low or maybe a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began) held today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, SPX (S & P 500) appears to have entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 2 downcycle (since late Friday 11-14-08) did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave A = Wave 1 down bottomed early yesterday 11-17-08, then, Wave B up = Wave 2 up peaked mid session yesterday, followed by Wave C down, which did a pronounced down up down pattern, that appears to have bottomed late today.

After SPX (S & P 500) completed the short term Wave 2 down's inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, I did an SSO day trade, and, netted 5 and a half cents per share late today (I'll take it, I made a significant amount of $).

The extremely bullish 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (+0.78% versus SPX today/on 11-18, +0.87% on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10) points to early weakness tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, because, the fact that SPX (S & P 500)/the market didn't respond much to such a bullish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, allowing it to become extremely bullish, is a very short term bearish indication.

Tomorrow, I'll look to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM, or, I'll look to day trade GDX/AEM/EGO/SSRI long, if the very short term Wave 2 down bottoms, or, I might trade the XOI ultra long via DIG, if the XOI bottoms. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

GDX/HUI/XAU (the gold/silver stock sector) appear to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 11-13-08, and, an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in late October, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. It looks like 11-13-08's cycle low will hold tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The extremely bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +2.05% versus the XAU today/on 11-18, and, at +1.23% on 11-17, is a very short term bearish indication.

The XOI probably put in a Wave 4 of Wave 3 cycle low on 11-13-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, of an anemic countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle, that began on 10-10-08.

The extremely bullish XOM Lead Indicator, at +0.50% versus the XOI today/on 11-18, +2.61% on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, is a very short term bearish indication.

For more info see yesterday's update at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/11/spx-s-p-500-will-probably-test-thursday.html.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Will Probably Test Thursday 11-13-08's Cycle Low Early Tomorrow

SPX (S & P 500) will probably test Thursday 11-13-08's cycle low early tomorrow, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. From a glance at the five day intraday candlestick chart it won't be surprising if SPX (S & P 500) takes out the 11-13-08 cycle low.

For the gold/silver stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) it looks like Thursday 11-13-08's cycle low was a short term Wave 2 cycle low (161.27 for HUI), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, the cycle low in late October (150.27 for HUI) appears to be an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low, but, a 5% follow through major buy signal has yet to occur.

GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave C of the very short term Wave 2 downcycle (since early Friday 11-14-08) at mid session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. It looks like GDX (Gold Miners ETF) will bottom between 18 and 19 early tomorrow, after which I'll look to trade GDX or AEM/EGO/SSRI long. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

Note that GDX/HUI/XAU's very short term Wave 2 downcycle (since early Friday 11-14-08) is doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Wave A of the very short term Wave 2 downcycle, that bottomed early today, did a pronounced down up down pattern, that's down up down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, followed by a countertrend Wave B of Wave 2, that peaked at mid session (Wave 4 up of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), and, the rest of the session was Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (also is Wave C of the very short term Wave 2 downcycle), that should bottom early tomorrow.

FXI (ETF for FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fxi) wasn't a good short today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FXI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I was looking to day trade the UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Proshare (FXP) ETF today.

What I've been referring to as a black candle (close below the open) is usually a red candle at StockCharts.com, and, is a blue candle in Yahoo.

Based on the nature of cycles, SPX and NDX/RUT/any other indexes that potentially put in an important cycle low on 11-13-08, should put in a cycle low tomorrow not far above 11-13's cycle low, such that the important upcycle's trendline begins relatively flat.

Once Wave 2 down of the SPX/NDX/RUT short term Wave 1 upcycle since on 11-13-08 bottoms (if 11-13's cycle low holds, which is doubtful), I'll obviously be looking to trade ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM and/or (most likely) I'll look to trade the gold/silver stock sector long via GDX/AEM/EGO/SSRI, or, the oil & gas sector ultra long via DIG.

Because DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) is in a Wave C of Wave C downcycle since 11-13-08's cycle high at 48.50, I won't be trading it again until it bottoms.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish
+0.87% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-17, was a slightly bullish +0.13% on 11-14, and, was an extremely bearish -2.53% on 11-13 (+1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5).

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at extremely bullish (2%+), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which points to SPX/market weakness early on Tuesday, because, the fact that SPX (S & P 500)/the market didn't respond to such a bullish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, allowing it to become extremely bullish, is a very short term bearish indication.

HUI's recent very bullish triple bottom is a great example of a very important upcycle (likely Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) beginning very flat, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 22.58 on 11-13-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, versus a recent likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 21.40, is another good example of a very important upcycle (Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) beginning relatively flat.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a Secular Bull Market in November 2000/October 2000, versus gold doing so in April 2001 and silver doing so in late 2001, so, gold and silver will probably lag HUI/XAU again, and, will probably bottom in 3 to 6 months, silver maybe longer, assuming that HUI/XAU recently bottomed and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.

GDX/HUI/XAU probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 11-13-08 (GDX filled 18.69 as expected), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note that HUI's daily candlestick chart has a very large very bullish inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle on 11-13-08.

I'm on the verge (the system waits for a 5% major buy signal, I DO NOT officially call bottoms or tops, I wait for major buy/sell signals, only proven systems can consistently time the market) of becoming very bullish on this sector, but, I might wait for a 5% major buy signal.

Another important development is that DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug, and, note that DUG has a very large very bearish spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle on 11-13-08. 11-13-08's cycle high is probably/very likely a countertrend Wave B of Wave C cycle high.

The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) is doing a very anemic likely countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle since 10-10-08, and, put in a Wave 4 down cycle low of a very long short term (like an anemic monthly upcycle) Wave 3 upcycle on 11-13-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.

So, DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) should bottom when the XOI's very anemic countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle since 10-10-08 peaks. The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.

DUG had an upside gap at 41.50 (filled 11-12). The XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) had a downside gap at 900.39 (filled 11-11), and, has an upside gap at 952.76 (filled 11-14-08). XOM (Exxon Mobil) has downside gaps at 69.96 (filled 11-12) and 66.09, and, has an upside gap at 77.49 (filled 11-14-08).

The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.

The lead indicators jive with strength (began 11-13-08, maybe), for most sectors/indexes.

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish (which is a very short term bearish indication, +0.87% versus SPX today/on 11-17, +0.13% on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at bearish (+1.23% versus the XAU today/on 11-17, -2.13% on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish (which is a very short term bearish indication, +2.61% versus the XOI today/on 11-17, +0.65% on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.

Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market (SPX's might have ended on 11-13-08), see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market (NDX's might have ended on 11-13-08), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have ended on 11-13-08), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Looks Like A Good Short On Monday

FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fxi) looks like a good short on Monday 11-17-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fxi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Note that FTSE/Xinhua China 25 put in a very large very bearish spike shortly before session's end on Friday 11-14-08, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FXI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ended the session (Friday 11-14-08) in Wave A of Wave C of the very short term downcycle that began shortly before session's end on Thursday 11-13-08. Note that Wave A down of the very short term downcycle, that bottomed mid session on Friday 11-14-08, did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern.

The entire FTSE/Xinhua China 25 very short term downcycle (began shortly before session's end on 11-13-08) will also probably do an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, and, will probably/very likely take out 11-13-08's cycle low (Wave A of Wave C might test 11-13-08's cycle low), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fxi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

I'm probably going to trade the UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Proshare (FXP) ETF on Monday, up +15.36% on Friday 11-14-08. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fxi) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, while the major averages (some at least) might have entered a Cyclical Bull Market on Thursday 11-13-08, or, at least probably put in some type of important cycle low.

Here's FXP's (UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Proshare, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fxp) Elliott Wave count, since it's major cycle high at 200. FXP did a huge Wave A downcycle to 81.11, followed by a huge countertrend Wave B upcycle to 183.99. Then FXP did a huge Wave A of Wave C to 73.98, followed by Wave B of Wave C to 102.60, culminating (probably) in Wave C of Wave C to 59.60 on Thursday 11-13-08. Note that FXP did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern.

The major clue that 73.98 probably wasn't the final Wave C cycle low is that it was relatively close to the Wave A cycle low at 81.11, given the extreme volatility. Also, the candle at 73.98 would be a very atypical one for an important cycle low, though, the one at 59.60 on Thursday 11-13-08 is also atypical, however, the next day (Friday 11-14-08) FXP put in a modestly higher cycle low, that does have a typical candle (white, indicating a close above the open, with a bullish large inverse spike).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX (S & P 500) Put in a Slightly Higher Bearish Double Top Very Short Term Wave 1 Cycle High Late Today

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) put in a slightly higher bearish double top very short term Wave 1 cycle high late today 11-14-08 (Wave 1 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle since yesterday 11-13-08), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. At session's end SPX was doing Wave A down of a very short term Wave 2 downcycle.

Based on the nature of cycles, SPX and NDX/RUT/any other indexes that put in important cycle lows yesterday, should put in a cycle low early next week not far above yesterday 11-13's cycle low, such that the important upcycle's trendline begins relatively flat. This means that I'll be looking to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS/QID/TWM early on Monday.

Because DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) is in a Wave C of Wave C downcycle since yesterday 11-13-08's cycle high at 48.50, I won't be trading it again until it bottoms.

Once Wave 2 down of the SPX/NDX/RUT short term Wave 1 upcycle since yesterday 11-13-08 bottoms, I'll obviously be looking to trade ultra long via SSO/QLD/UWM and/or I'll look to trade the gold/silver stock sector long via GDX/AEM/EGO/SSRI or the oil & gas sector ultra long via DIG.

Looking at the gold/silver stock sector, GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) ended the session in Wave A of Wave C of the very short term Wave 2 downcycle that began shortly after today 11-14-08's open, of the short term Wave 3 upcycle since yesterday 11-13-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The very short term GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 downcycle will probably do an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down), that's also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern. The inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern (down up down up down) tends to be a good check of whether an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern has bottomed.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), based on the nature of cycles, should bottom not far above yesterday 11-13-08's cycle lows, though, yesterday's cycle low was a short term Wave 2 cycle low, which obviously isn't nearly as important as SPX/NDX/RUT's, that might be a very important Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.

So, GDX/HUI/XAU will probably bottom farther above yesterday 11-13-08's cycle lows than SPX/NDX/RUT will, but, the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.13% versus the XAU today/on 11-14, and, was a super bearish -5.07% on 11-13, so, maybe there won't be much of a difference in this case.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.13% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-14, and, was an extremely bearish -2.53% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday/on 11-13 (+1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5).

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at extremely bullish (2%+), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which points to SPX/market weakness early on Monday, because, the fact that SPX (S & P 500)/the market didn't respond to such a bullish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, allowing it to become extremely bullish, is a very short term bearish indication.

HUI's recent very bullish triple bottom is a great example of a very important upcycle (likely Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) beginning very flat, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's short term Wave 2 cycle low yesterday at 22.58, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, versus a recent likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 21.40, is another good example of a very important upcycle (Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) beginning relatively flat.

Other important developments yesterday are the fact that the gold/silver stock sector (gold and silver probably didn't bottom yet) has very likely recently entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a Secular Bull Market in November 2000/October 2000, versus gold doing so in April 2001 and silver doing so in late 2001, so, gold and silver will probably lag HUI/XAU again, and, will probably bottom in 3 to 6 months, silver maybe longer, assuming that HUI/XAU recently bottomed and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.

GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low yesterday (GDX filled 18.69 as expected), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note that HUI's daily candlestick chart has a very large very bullish inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle yesterday 11-13-08.

I'm on the verge (the system waits for a 5% major buy signal, I DO NOT officially call bottoms or tops, I wait for major buy/sell signals, only proven systems can consistently time the market) of becoming very bullish on this sector, but, I might wait for a 5% major buy signal.

Another important development yesterday is that DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug, and, note that DUG has a very large very bearish spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle yesterday 11-13-08. Yesterday's cycle high is probably/very likely a countertrend Wave B of Wave C cycle high.

The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) is doing a very anemic likely countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle since 10-10-08, and, put in a Wave 4 down cycle low of a very long short term (like an anemic monthly upcycle) Wave 3 upcycle yesterday 11-13-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.

So, DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) should bottom when the XOI's very anemic countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle since 10-10-08 peaks. The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.

DUG had an upside gap at 41.50 (filled 11-12). The XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) had a downside gap at 900.39 (filled 11-11), and, has an upside gap at 952.76. XOM (Exxon Mobil) has downside gaps at 69.96 (filled 11-12) and 66.09, and, has an upside gap at 77.49.

The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.

The lead indicators jive with strength (began 11-13-08), for most sectors/indexes.

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish (which is a very short term bearish indication, +0.13% versus SPX today/on 11-14, -2.53% on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at very bearish (-2.13% versus the XAU today/on 11-14, -5.07% on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish (which is a very short term bearish indication, +0.65% versus the XOI today/on 11-14, -1.91% on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.

Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market (SPX's might have ended yesterday 11-13-08), see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market (NDX's might have ended yesterday 11-13-08), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have ended yesterday 11-13-08), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Wave C Downcycle Since 11-5-08 Probably Bottomed, And, The Cyclical Bear Market Might Have Ended

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave C downcycle since 11-5-08 probably bottomed today 11-13-08, and, the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07 might have bottomed today at the 818.69 cycle low (a good but obviously questionable probability, but, a 5% major buy signal must occur anyway, before Trade the Cycles indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note that SPX's daily candlestick chart has a very large very bullish inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle today 11-13-08.

Looking at SPX's 5 day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, a very strong intraday/very short term Wave 1 upcycle was peaking late today, and, an intraday/very short term Wave 2 downcycle should occur early tomorrow, after which some good long trading opportunities should arise for most indexes/sectors of the market. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.53% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 11-13 (+1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5), which is a very short term bullish indication.

The five day intraday Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at very bullish (from +1% to +2%), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which points to SPX/market strength very early on tomorrow.

The nature of cycles strongly suggests that SPX (S & P 500), and, any other indexes/sectors that put in an important cycle low today, will put in a Wave 2 type cycle low in the next day or two, such that the upcycle's trendline begins relatively flat.

HUI's recent very bullish triple bottom is a great example of a very important upcycle (likely Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) beginning very flat, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's short term Wave 2 cycle low today at 22.58, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, versus a recent Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market cycle low at 21.40, is another good example of a very important upcycle (Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market) beginning relatively flat.

Other important developments today are the fact that the gold/silver stock sector (gold and silver probably didn't bottom yet) has very likely recently entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a Secular Bull Market in November 2000/October 2000, versus gold doing so in April 2001 and silver doing so in late 2001, so, gold and silver will probably lag HUI/XAU again, and, will probably bottom in 3 to 6 months, silver maybe longer, assuming that HUI/XAU recently bottomed and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.

GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low today (GDX filled 18.69 as expected), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note that HUI's daily candlestick chart has a very large very bullish inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle today 11-13-08.

I'm on the verge (the system waits for a 5% major buy signal, I DO NOT officially call bottoms or tops, I wait for major buy/sell signals, only proven systems can consistently time the market) of becoming very bullish on this sector, but, I might wait for a 5% major buy signal.

Another important development today is that DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug, and, note that DUG has a very large very bearish spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle today 11-13-08. Today's cycle high is probably/very likely a countertrend Wave B of Wave C cycle high.

The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) is doing a very anemic likely countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle since 10-10-08, and, put in a Wave 4 down cycle low of a very long short term (like an anemic monthly upcycle) Wave 3 upcycle today 11-13-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.

So, DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) should bottom when the XOI's very anemic countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle since 10-10-08 peaks. The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.

Early tomorrow I'll look to day trade the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) ultra long via DIG, and/or, I'll look to trade GDX/AEM/CDE long. Today I day traded DUG twice (each less than two minutes, the large 10 minute chart that fills my screen helps a lot with finetuning entry/exit points) and netted 43 cents/$430 for each 1000 shares traded.

DUG had an upside gap at 41.50 (filled 11-12). The XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) had a downside gap at 900.39 (filled 11-11), and, has an upside gap at 952.76. XOM (Exxon Mobil) has downside gaps at 69.96 (filled 11-12) and 66.09, and, has an upside gap at 77.49.

The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.

The lead indicators jive with strength (began 11-13-08), for most sectors/indexes.

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at very bullish (-2.53% versus SPX today/on 11-13, +1.20% on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is/closed at neutral (-5.07% versus the XAU today/on 11-13, +2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is/closed at extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish, -1.91% versus the XOI today/on 11-13, +2.39% on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.

Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market (SPX's might have ended today 11-13-08), see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market (NDX's might have ended today 11-13-08), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have ended today 11-13-08), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Wave C Downcycle Since 11-5-08 Might Bottom Tomorrow

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term Wave C downcycle since 11-5-08 might bottom tomorrow 11-13-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, note that SPX put in a large bearish spike shortly before session's end.

SPX (and other indexes/sectors) will probably take out it's 10-10-08 cycle low at 839.80 tomorrow, confirming that it remains in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07.

Looking at the broad market 5 day intraday Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (+1.20% versus SPX today/on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, the fact that it's extremely bullish is a very short term bearish sign, that points to early weakness tomorrow.

However, after early weakness, a substantial rally is likely due to today's very bullish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +1.20% versus SPX today/on 11-12, the fact that SPX will be extremely oversold, and, the extreme volatility is a sign that an important cycle low (could be a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low) is imminent.

Some type of important cycle low might occur in the next few days, because, SPX (S & P 500) is doing (assumes 10-10-08 cycle low is taken out) a month long Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Early tomorrow I'll look to day trade the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) ultra short via DUG, then, after the (if the) market bottoms I'll look to trade DIG or GDX/AEM long. Today I day traded DUG and netted 47 cents/$470 for each 1000 shares traded.

DUG had an upside gap at 41.50 (filled today 11-12). The XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) had a downside gap at 900.39 (filled 11-11), and, has an upside gap at 952.76. XOM (Exxon Mobil) has downside gaps at 69.96 (filled today 11-12) and 66.09, and, has an upside gap at 77.49.

Also, note that DUG has a large bullish inverse spike on 11-5's bullish white (close above the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug, which is a bullish double bottom with 11-4's cycle low at 33.83, that appears to be a major intermediate term cycle low (see second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug), because, DUG completed a huge three week+ Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern = down up down up down). Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

It looks like GDX (Gold Miners ETF) will fill it's downside gap at 18.69 early tomorrow, and, the gold sector (GDX/HUI/XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market recently, but, has yet to hit a 5% follow through major buy signal. GDX's recent likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low is 15.83.

The fact that the NEM Lead Indicator (+2.74% on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10) has turned extremely bullish the past few days, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, plus, assessing the GDX/HUI/XAU(http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) charts/cycle patterns (HUI very bullish triple bottom, NEM double bottom at 21.40/21.47), it looks like the sector has bottomed, which obviously doesn't mean that ALL stocks in the sector have bottomed.

The current dramatic weakness makes perfect sense cyclewise. After doing a huge short term Wave 1 upcycle (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx), GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a huge short term Wave 2 downcycle, such that the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market's uptrend line begins relatively flat.

An SPX short term Wave C downcycle began on 11-5-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, in which SPX (S & P 500) should take out it's cycle low at 839.80 that occurred on 10-10-08, confirming that SPX and most other indexes/sectors remain in a Cyclical Bear Market.

The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.

In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX and the XOI). The lead indicators jive with severe weakness (began 11-5-08), for most sectors/indexes.

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish, +1.20% versus SPX today/on 11-12, +1.42% on 11-11, +2.72% on 11-10, -1.21% on 11-7, +3.85% on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish, +2.74% versus the XAU today/on 11-12, +1.72% on 11-11, +0.97% on 11-10, -1.54% on 11-7, +0.13% on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish, +2.39% versus the XOI today/on 11-12, +2.23% on 11-11, -0.53% on 11-10, +0.65% on 11-7, +0.44% on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.

Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI