Some Gold Analysts/Market Timers Have Turned Bearish

Here's a bearish gold article http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4159.html. Ski/Jeff Kern (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html) and Jack Chan (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan033108.html) have turned bearish also.

....... http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 4 Down Of The Big Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Probably Bottomed Just After Today's Open

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave 4 down (began mid session Monday 3-24) of the big short term Wave 1 Upcycle since 3-17 probably bottomed just after today 3-31's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX's decline that occurred during the last 2/3 of the Friday 3-28's session was a final Wave C type parabolic/steep decline as expected/discussed Friday.

Also, SPX put in a bullish large inverse spike on the 5 day intraday candlestick just before session's end Friday 3-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which was a sign that SPX might have put in a very short term Wave 4 (began 3-24) cycle low, or, in this case, that one was imminent/occurred right after today's open.

The WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) was a bullish +0.50% versus SPX today 3-31, was a modestly bullish +0.32% versus SPX on 3-28, was +0.15% on 3-27, and, was +0.60% on 3-26.

SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 that might get filled in the near future. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX fell a modest -0.39% today/on 3-31 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +0.57% on 3-31, which is a slight +0.18% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +0.18% = -0.39% + +0.57% = +0.18% rise in fear) that points to some slight strength on Tuesday 4-1.

I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Tuesday via SSO, QLD, or UWM. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Tuesday.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Here's a bearish gold article http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4159.html. Ski/Jeff Kern (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html) and Jack Chan (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan033108.html) have turned bearish also.

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Morons leaving phony comments (and most gold writers) don't even understand basic technical analysis.

Nearly all if not all gold writers have long term investors chase huge parabolic spike moves, which is poor advice. Any investment is only timely for long term investors near it's primary trendline.

I constantly get bogus comments from morons saying how gold can't fall to it's primary trendline, currently at $500ish. Gold HAS to fall to it's primary trendline. This is very basic stuff.

Try finding a link to a gold writer who shows (even if the trendline is wrong) and discusses gold's primary multi year uptrend line since April 2001, without which it's impossible to know when gold is timely for long term investors.

HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-20, following the week before last's huge short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions, and, bottomed on 3-20) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.

HUI/XAU/gold probably put in a Wave 2 cycle low of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle today 3-31, since there's an up down pattern on the daily chart since 3-20, when Wave B started, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

When the final short term countertrend Wave B (began 3-20) cycle high occurs there's likely to be a large bearish spike on the daily candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator should be extremely bearish. Also, waiting for a sharp very short term Wave A type downcycle (sell signal, look for the short term Wave B upcycle trendline to clearly break down) before holding a short position/puts overnight (look to enter trades in a very short term countertrend Wave B) makes a lot of sense.

From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart (intraday Elliott Wave count) it looks like a bit more strength/follow through will occur early on Tuesday 4-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.74% versus the XAU today/on 3-31, was a bullish +0.80% versus the XAU on 3-28, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 3-27, was a very bearish -1.44% on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time the week before last, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

China's Shanghai SSE Composite Index Is Crashing

China's Shanghai SSE Composite Index is crashing, down about 43-44% in only five months, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=. This is obviously very deflationary and doesn't bode well for commodities.

The major worldwide deflationary economic downcycle is a huge negative for commodities. Gold is a hedge against inflationary economic upcycles. The commodities game is basically over for about 18 months (Cyclical Bear within a Secular 20 yearish Bull). The scam artists and nitwits won't give up without a fight however.

It should be amusing to watch the scam artists and nitwits get exposed for exactly what they are in the coming weeks and months. The recent crash made very few of them get religion. Maybe some time behind bars (where some belong) will get them some religion.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

............"Get Out of Commodities - Barron's"

"Get Out of Commodities - Barron's," see http://seekingalpha.com/article/70389-get-out-of-commodities-barron-s?source=side_bar_comments.

Here's part of the article:

"Commodity bull Jim Rogers notes that there are about 70,000 mutual funds in the world, and only about 50 that invest in commodities. He thinks the speculative bubble has a few years to go. But looking at the 'smart money' -- farmers and others who actually trade in and use the physical commodities -- tells a different story. Net commercial shorts are 30% higher than a previous record."

Note that even Jim Rogers indicates that it's a "speculative bubble."

It's obvious that the US and the world is in the midst of a deflationary major economic downcycle, that obviously will play a major factor in bursting the commodities bubble (many/some like gold have already burst). Many foreign stock markets like China are crashing, and, have been hit even harder than the US.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

..........Beware The Goofy Corrupt Gold Loons!

Gold's crash/5% major sell signal last week was a short term Wave A downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, which means that another vicious short term Wave C decline lies ahead in the near future, in which gold will bottom well below the Wave A cycle low, probably in the $850-875ish range.

Some/many of the goofy corrupt (and/or clueless) gold loons are saying that last week was a buying opportunity. Every dip, no matter how large or how severe the technical damage, is a buying opportunity to the gold dips. They would have investors/traders catch a falling knife and get crushed. What else is new?

Also, considering that gold is basically done/in an 18 month+ Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market now/soon (might put in a double top in a few months), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-is-basically-done-for-long-time.html, and, the process of the gold loons leading investors/traders to disaster will keep repeating itself over the next 18+ months. Ouch!

Gold is likely to put in a slightly higher bearish double top in the next few months, because, gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows. Gold will probably behave in a similar fashion to the S & P 500, after it (as gold did last week) hit a major 5% follow through sell signal in July 2007, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

SPX's (S & P 500) July 2007 cycle high was a potential Cyclical Bull Market cycle high because of the 5% major sell signal, but, thanks partly/largely to massive Fed credit injections, SPX put in a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high in October 2007, only +1.30% above the July cycle high, peaking in dramatic rollover mode, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. So, the 5% major sell signal worked well, as it almost always, if not always, does. One can't completely rule out the unusual/unexpected.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 4 Down Of The Big Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Might Have Bottomed Just Before Session's End

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave 4 down (began mid session Monday 3-24) of the big short term Wave 1 Upcycle since 3-17 might have bottomed just before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX's decline that occurred during the last 2/3 of the session appears to be a final Wave C type parabolic/steep decline.

Also, SPX put in a bullish large inverse spike on the 5 day intraday candlestick just before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which is a sign that SPX might have put in a very short term Wave 4 (began 3-24) cycle low.

The WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) was a modestly bullish +0.32% versus SPX today/on 3-28, was +0.15% on 3-27, and, was +0.60% on 3-26.

SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 that might get filled in the near future. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX fell a significant -0.66% today/on 3-28 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.80% on 3-28, which is a significant +1.46% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -1.46% = -0.66% + -0.80% = +1.46% rise in complacency) that points to some significant weakness on Monday 3-28.

I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Monday via SSO, QLD, or UWM once the very short term downcycle bottoms. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Monday.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-20, following last week's huge short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions, and, bottomed on 3-20) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.

HUI/XAU/gold probably entered Wave 5 of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle today, since there's an up down up down pattern on the daily chart since 3-20, when Wave B started, with a large bullish inverse spike on today 3-28's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

It's also possible and probably likely (as I think about it more) that today's cycle low was a Wave 2 of Wave B cycle low, since the first up down of the up down up down pattern on the daily chart might be part of Wave 1 of the short term Wave B. I'll have to put some thought into that (note that StockCharts didn't label the first up move cycle high but did label the second, which makes it a likely very short term Wave 1 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. I don't know what their criteria is for labeled important cycle highs, but, they seem to have a high batting average). Either way a very short term cycle low probably occurred today 3-28 for HUI/XAU.

When the final short term countertrend Wave B (began 3-20) cycle high occurs there's likely to be a large bearish spike on the daily candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator should be extremely bearish. Also, waiting for a sharp very short term Wave A type downcycle (sell signal, look for the short term Wave B upcycle trendline to clearly break down) before holding a short position/puts overnight (look to enter trades in a very short term countertrend Wave B) makes a lot of sense.

From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart it looks like a significant/sharp Wave C type decline will occur early on Monday 3-31, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, there might be a good shorting opportunity early on Monday. I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.

The five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.80% versus the XAU today/on 3-28, was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU on 3-27, was a very bearish -1.44% on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

............Gold Is Basically Done For A Long Time

Gold hit a major 5% follow through sell signal last week (broke the multi month uptrend line by more than 5%), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. This is BASIC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. When a well established uptrend line clearly breaks down you CAN'T ignore that. What you should ignore are the gold SCAM ARTISTS and nitwits.

Even if you doubt Trade the Cycles basic technical analysis indicates that gold should be avoided for a long time. Gold might put in a modestly higher double top in a few months, but, gold is basically done for 18 months or more (will probably experience a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear market).

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish right now, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, so, gold is very untimely for long term investors. Gold/any investment is only timely for long term investors near it's primary trendline.

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

Trust me, IGNORE the con artists. I know for a fact that some of the gold writers have gotten into trouble in the past. I believe that at least one even has a criminal record.

Any gold writer who deceives readers about gold's prospects for personal gain is engaged in criminal fraudulent activity, keep that in mind, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/fraud-is-deception-made-for-personal.html.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

SPX's Wave 4 Of The Big Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Might Still Be In Effect

SPX's Wave 4 of the big short term Wave 1 upcycle (since 3-17) might still be in effect. Yesterday's rising bottoms uptrend was very flat/anemic, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, so, today's downside wasn't too surprising.

Also, reliable lead indicator Walmart (WMT) is correcting the big spike move it made recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.15% versus SPX on 3-27 and was +0.60% on 3-26. The 5 day WMT Lead Indicator is modestly bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 that might get filled in the near future, and, has a downside gap at 1329.51. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX fell a significant -1.23% today/on 3-27 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -1.15% on 3-27, which is a sharp +2.38% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -2.38% = -1.23% + -1.15% = +2.38% rise in complacency) that points to some significant/potentially sharp weakness on Friday 3-27.

I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Friday via SSO, QLD, or UWM once the very short term downcycle bottoms, and, I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Friday.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, following last week's huge short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions, and, bottomed on 3-20) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.

HUI/XAU/gold are probably still in (began today 3-27 as expected) Wave 4 of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, since there's an up down up down pattern on the daily chart since 3-20, when Wave B started.

The five day NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU today/on 3-27, was a very bearish -1.44% versus the XAU on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart it looks like Wave 4 down of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (began 3-20) might bottom tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, there might be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.

Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX (S & P 500) Appears To Have Entered Wave 5 Of A Big Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle

SPX (S & P 500) appears to have entered Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1 upcycle early today, because, SPX has done an up down up down pattern on the daily chart since the likely Wave A intermediate term cycle low occurred on 3-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. The Elliott Wave count jives with today 3-26's bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +0.60% versus SPX, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

On SPX's 5 day intraday candlestick chart one can see that SPX did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern from mid session on Monday 3-24 until early today 3-26, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, that probably was Wave 4 down of a big short term Wave 1 upcycle since 3-17.

SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 that might get filled in the current very short term Wave 5 upcycle, and, has a downside gap at 1329.51. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX rose a significant +1.40% today/on 3-26 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.88% on 3-26, which is a significant +0.52% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +0.52% = +1.40% + -0.88% = +0.52% rise in fear) that points to some significant strength on Thursday 3-27.

I'll be looking to day trade SPX ultra long early on Thursday via SSO, and, I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably SPX calls) on Thursday. Today I bought some SPX April 1450 calls (SXZDJ) at 1.10.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, following last week's huge short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions, and, bottomed on 3-20) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. HUI/XAU/gold are in Wave 3 of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, since there's an up down up pattern on the daily chart since 3-20, when Wave B started.

The five day NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.44% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% versus the XAU on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% versus the XAU on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart it looks like Wave 4 down of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (began 3-20) might start tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, there might be a good shorting opportunity tomorrow. I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.

Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Tomorrow Will Probably Bring Good Shorting Opportunities

After early weakness SPX (S & P 500) spent most of the session doing what appears to be a countertrend Wave B type move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, which jives with today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -1.31% versus SPX today 3-25 (-0.78% yesterday), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The Fed's massive $17 Billion credit injection today (unusual for a Tuesday), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, fueled index related program traders/buying, and, propped up the market today.

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 3 of a big short term Wave 1 upcycle appears to have peaked yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. SPX has a large bearish spike on 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 and a downside gap at 1329.51. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX fell a slight -0.04% today/on 3-25 versus the S & P 500 rising a slight +0.23% on 3-25, which is a slight +0.19% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +0.19% = -0.04% + +0.23% = +0.19% rise in fear) that points to some slight strength (probably early) on Wednesday 3-26.

I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Wednesday via SDS, QID, or TWM, and, I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably puts) on Wednesday.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -1.85% versus the XAU today/3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% versus the XAU on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Looking at HUI's five day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, the upcycle that began early on 3-20 is a very short term countertrend Wave B type move, so, it looks like another potentially large decline might begin tomorrow/on Wednesday.

The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Exau. I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners Index, early tomorrow.

Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI Wave A type decline in a little under three sessions time last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.

The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 3 Of A Big Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Appears To Have Peaked Today

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 3 of a big short term Wave 1 upcycle appears to have peaked today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

SPX has a large bearish spike on today 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.78% versus SPX today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 and a downside gap at 1329.51 from today's open. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX fell a very sharp -3.34% on 3-24 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +1.53% on 3-24, which is a significant +1.81% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -1.81% = -3.34% + +1.53% = +1.81% rise in complacency) that points to some significant weakness on Tuesday 3-25.

I'll probably be looking to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Tuesday via SDS, QID, or TWM. I'm also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably puts) on Tuesday. Today I day traded SSO, buying it a hair under 69.20 and selling it a hair over 69.41.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.19% versus the XAU on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Looking at HUI's five day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, the upcycle from early 3-20 to early today 3-24 appears to have been a very short term countertrend Wave B type move, so, it looks like another potentially large decline might occur tomorrow/on Tuesday.

The XAU has a large bearish spike on today 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Exau. I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners Index, early tomorrow.

Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI Wave A type decline in a little under three sessions time last week (might not have bottomed yet), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, this weakness has been about as severe as it gets.

The severe weakness/action in recent days tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

................"What Created This Monster?"

"What Created This Monster?," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/23/business/23how.html.

Here's part of the article:

"LIKE Noah building his ark as thunderheads gathered, Bill Gross has spent the last two years anticipating the flood that swamped Bear Stearns about 10 days ago. As manager of the world’s biggest bond fund and custodian of nearly a trillion dollars in assets, Mr. Gross amassed a cash hoard of $50 billion in case trading partners suddenly demanded payment from his firm, Pimco.

And every day for the last three weeks he has convened meetings in a war room in Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, Calif., “to make sure the ark doesn’t have any leaks,” Mr. Gross said. “We come in every day at 3:30 a.m. and leave at 6 p.m. I’m not used to setting my alarm for 2:45 a.m., but these are extraordinary times.”

Even though Mr. Gross, 63, is a market veteran who has lived through the collapse of other banks and brokerage firms, the 1987 stock market crash, and the near meltdown of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund a decade ago, he says the current crisis feels different — in both size and significance.

The Federal Reserve not only taken has action unprecedented since the Great Depression — by lending money directly to major investment banks — but also has put taxpayers on the hook for billions of dollars in questionable trades these same bankers made when the good times were rolling.

“Bear Stearns has made it obvious that things have gone too far,” says Mr. Gross, who plans to use some of his cash to bargain-shop. “The investment community has morphed into something beyond banks and something beyond regulation. We call it the shadow banking system.”"

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

"A Fraud Is A Deception Made For Personal Gain"

"In the broadest sense, a fraud is a deception made for personal gain. The specific legal definition varies by legal jurisdiction. Fraud is a crime, and is also a civil law violation. Many hoaxes are fraudulent, although those not made for personal gain are not technically frauds. Defrauding people of money is presumably the most common type of fraud, but there have also been many fraudulent "discoveries" in art, archaeology, and science." From this link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud.

Isn't this what many gold/precious metals sector writers appear to be doing? Aren't they purposely misrepresenting gold's, silver's, or HUI/XAU's prospects in order to benefit their newsletter, their web site, their gold and/or silver mining company, etc?

It's obvious that many gold/precious metals writers live in a very goofy and/or corrupt world of make believe, in which major corrections/downcycles and bear markets supposedly never happen. Aren't they engaged in a deception made for personal gain, which is fraud?

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX (S & P 500) Entered A Short Term Wave 3 Upcycle Early Yesterday 3-20

SPX (S & P 500) entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle early yesterday 3-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Yesterday 3-20's WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.44% versus the S & P 500 (SPX), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, the five day WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

After a likely Wave A intermediate term cycle low occurred for SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100) late on Monday 3-17, a very sharp short term Wave 1 upcycle/spike move occurred that peaked just after 3-19's open (filled upside gap at 1333.70 as expected), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, then, the remainder of 3-19's session was a sharp decline/Wave 2 type decline (bottomed just after 3-20's open, some early weakness was expected) that corrected the very sharp rally/Wave 1 type move.

At session's end SPX appeared to be doing a modest Wave B type move and looks like it'll experience a brief plunge early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. So, some brief weakness is likely at Monday 3-24's open followed by significant/potentially sharp strength. The SPX wall of worry discussed three paragraphs down typically points to strength followed by weakness however.

SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95. SPX's upside gap at 1333.70 got filled early on 3-19, now watch the upside gap at 1367.68.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX fell a dramatic -10.79% on 3-20 versus the S & P 500 rising a sharp +2.39% on 3-20, which is an unusually large +8.40% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -8.40% = -10.79% + +2.39% = +8.40% rise in complacency) that points to some strength followed by weakness on Monday 3-24.

I'll probably be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long on Monday via SSO, QLD, or UWM. If a big spike move occurs early on I obviously might look to day trade short. I'm also looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Monday.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now obviously is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside.

HUI/XAU/gold are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, got more bearish at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Looking at HUI's five day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, the spike move early in the session/on 3-20 appears to be a countertrend Wave B type move, so, it looks like another potentially large decline might occur early on Monday.

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI Wave A type decline in a little under three sessions time so far (might not have bottomed yet), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, this weakness has been about as severe as it gets.

This severe weakness/action in recent days tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

The same excessive greed, blind bullishness, and criminal activity (very serious attempts to manipulate gold, silver, and some gold/silver stocks) seen in the 1999-2000 timeframe for growth stocks has been seen in recent months/years in the precious metals sector. Money (the allure of get rich quick) and ego (or lack thereof, I contend that someone who constantly needs to have his ego stroked has a very fragile ego) make many people do stupid things.

The gold nitwits and scam artists are no better (just as greedy and irresponsible) than the mortgage lenders making loans (adjustable rate mortgages) that they should have known would "blow up" in the near future and not be affordable. Gold will probably drop -40% to -50%+ in the next 18 months. Gold's primary Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The work of many gold writers reads like a scam. Gold will skyrocket (it already did obviously), gold won't go down this time (BS), the US is falling apart, etc etc. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Gold and silver are great investments timed properly.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/XAU/Gold Hit A 5% Follow Through Major Sell Signal

HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?

Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.

HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The -18.29% HUI Wave A type decline in a little under three sessions time so far (might not have bottomed yet), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, this weakness has been about as severe as it gets.

This severe weakness/action in recent days tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.

A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.

The same excessive greed, blind bullishness, and criminal activity (very serious attempts to manipulate gold, silver, and some gold/silver stocks) seen in the 1999-2000 timeframe for growth stocks has been seen in recent months/years in the precious metals sector. Money (the allure of get rich quick) and ego (or lack thereof, I contend that someone who constantly needs to have his ego stroked has a very fragile ego) make many people do stupid things.

The gold nitwits and scam artists are no better (just as greedy and irresponsible) than the mortgage lenders making loans (adjustable rate mortgages) that they should have known would "blow up" in the near future and not be affordable. Gold will probably drop -40% to -50%+ in the next 18 months. Gold's primary Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The work of many gold writers reads like a scam. Gold will skyrocket (it already did obviously), gold won't go down this time (BS), the US is falling apart, etc etc. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Gold and silver are great investments timed properly.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......Today's Major Averages Action Made Sense

After a likely Wave A intermediate term cycle low occurred for SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100) late on Monday 3-17, a very sharp rally/Wave 1 type spike move occurred that peaked just after today's open (filled upside gap at 1333.70 as expected), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, then, the remainder of the session was a sharp decline/Wave 2 type decline that corrected the very sharp rally/Wave 1 type move.

At session's end SPX's Wave 2 down move (began just after today's open) appeared to be near a cycle low, because, it appeared to be in the final Wave C move of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. This jives with today 3-19's extremely bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +2.04% versus the S & P 500, that became more bullish as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. So, some brief weakness is likely at tomorrow 3-20's open followed by significant/potentially sharp strength.

SPX (S & P 500) has a likely bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from yesterday 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95. SPX's upside gap at 1333.70 got filled early today, now watch the upside gap at 1367.68.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

VIX rose a dramatic +15.70% today/3-19 versus the S & P 500 falling a sharp -2.43% today/3-19, which is an unusually large +13.27% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +13.27% = +15.70% + -2.43% = +13.27% rise in fear) that points to some weakness followed by strength on Thursday 3-20.

I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

HUI crashed -6.93% today 3-19 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui), the XAU crashed -7.67%, and, gold crashed about -6% from it's session cycle high to it's session cycle low. They appear to be done (This Is It!!!), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-appear-to-be-done.html.

The fact that the NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.41% today 3-19 actually points to likely more downside early tomorrow 3-20, because, NEM outperforming strongly didn't rally HUI/XAU, see HUI's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

...............HUI/XAU Appear To Be Done

HUI/XAU appear to have put in intermediate term and Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The -12% HUI Wave A type decline in about two sessions time so far (might not have bottomed yet), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, appears to be a very important turning point.

A 5% follow through (after breaking the uptrend line since 8-16-07) major sell signal for HUI/XAU will confirm that an intermediate term and probably also a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred.

A 5% sell signal might occur in the short term Wave C downcycle that will follow a countertrend Wave B rebound, and, will probably bottom well below where the Wave A move bottomed (might have bottomed at 456.05 for HUI early today 3-19).

If this HUI/XAU crash caught you by surprise and you want to exit some positions, there should be a reasonably good opportunity to exit in the next few days, when a very sharp countertrend Wave B rebound should occur.

See this post http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html for charts and info regarding prior gold and silver Cyclical Bear Markets.

The gold nitwits and scam artists are no better (just as greedy and irresponsible) than the mortgage lenders making loans (adjustable rate mortgages) that they should have known would "blow up" in the near future and not be affordable. Gold will probably drop -40% to -50% in the next 18 months. Gold's primary Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The work of many gold writers reads like a scam. Gold will skyrocket (it already did obviously), gold won't go down this time (BS), the US is falling apart, etc etc. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Gold and silver are great investments timed properly.

Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

A Massive Program Buying And Short Covering Rally Occurred Today

A massive index related program buying and short covering Bear Market type rally occurred today 3-18 for the major averages, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, whereas, HUI/XAU/gold experienced a mini-crash, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

SPX (S & P 500) has a likely bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from today 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95. SPX's upside gap at 1333.70 will probably get filled early tomorrow, then watch the upside gap at 1367.68.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) (obviously) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows yesterday 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.

HUI/XAU might have put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since November/October 2000) cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, which has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.56% versus the XAU today 3-18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

SPX (S & P 500) closed right at it's session cycle high at 1330.74 today 3-18, which points to more upside early tomorrow, as does the intraday chart's Elliott Wave count. SPX appears to be in Wave 3 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle that began mid/late yesterday 3-17, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

The WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.18% versus SPX today 3-18, which got more bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Given that this is a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle (since late yesterday 3-17), the WMT Lead Indicator will tend to be more bearish than it normally would be. One should use the Elliott Wave count, cycles, and gaps, the basis/crux of Trade the Cycles, and not let a scary WMT Lead Indicator harm your trading.

VIX fell a dramatic -20.01% today/3-18 versus the S & P 500 rising a very sharp +4.24% today/3-18, which is an unusually large +15.77% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry fell by -15.77% = -20.01% + +4.24% = +15.77% rise in complacency) that points to some significant/potentially sharp strength on Wednesday 3-19.

I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU