A Massive Program Buying And Short Covering Rally Occurred Today
A massive index related program buying and short covering Bear Market type rally occurred today 3-18 for the major averages, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, whereas, HUI/XAU/gold experienced a mini-crash, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
SPX (S & P 500) has a likely bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from today 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95. SPX's upside gap at 1333.70 will probably get filled early tomorrow, then watch the upside gap at 1367.68.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) (obviously) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows yesterday 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
HUI/XAU might have put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since November/October 2000) cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, which has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.56% versus the XAU today 3-18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
SPX (S & P 500) closed right at it's session cycle high at 1330.74 today 3-18, which points to more upside early tomorrow, as does the intraday chart's Elliott Wave count. SPX appears to be in Wave 3 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle that began mid/late yesterday 3-17, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.18% versus SPX today 3-18, which got more bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Given that this is a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle (since late yesterday 3-17), the WMT Lead Indicator will tend to be more bearish than it normally would be. One should use the Elliott Wave count, cycles, and gaps, the basis/crux of Trade the Cycles, and not let a scary WMT Lead Indicator harm your trading.
VIX fell a dramatic -20.01% today/3-18 versus the S & P 500 rising a very sharp +4.24% today/3-18, which is an unusually large +15.77% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry fell by -15.77% = -20.01% + +4.24% = +15.77% rise in complacency) that points to some significant/potentially sharp strength on Wednesday 3-19.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX (S & P 500) has a likely bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from today 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95. SPX's upside gap at 1333.70 will probably get filled early tomorrow, then watch the upside gap at 1367.68.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) (obviously) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows yesterday 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
HUI/XAU might have put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since November/October 2000) cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, which has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.56% versus the XAU today 3-18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
SPX (S & P 500) closed right at it's session cycle high at 1330.74 today 3-18, which points to more upside early tomorrow, as does the intraday chart's Elliott Wave count. SPX appears to be in Wave 3 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle that began mid/late yesterday 3-17, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The WMT Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.18% versus SPX today 3-18, which got more bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Given that this is a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle (since late yesterday 3-17), the WMT Lead Indicator will tend to be more bearish than it normally would be. One should use the Elliott Wave count, cycles, and gaps, the basis/crux of Trade the Cycles, and not let a scary WMT Lead Indicator harm your trading.
VIX fell a dramatic -20.01% today/3-18 versus the S & P 500 rising a very sharp +4.24% today/3-18, which is an unusually large +15.77% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry fell by -15.77% = -20.01% + +4.24% = +15.77% rise in complacency) that points to some significant/potentially sharp strength on Wednesday 3-19.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:28 PM
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