SPX (S & P 500) And NDX (NASDAQ 100) Probably Put In A Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Today
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low today 3-14 (jives with the bullish WMT Lead Indicator at +0.54% versus SPX today 3-14), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, as opposed to yesterday, when one appeared to occur, but, yesterday turned out to be a Wave B type move (the large spike move/rebound did look like a Wave B type move), probably because of the negative Bear Stearns news today that tanked the market. Very tough day, but, a Wave B intermediate term upcycle probably started on Monday 3-10 (bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low with the 1-23-08 SPX cycle low).
RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) is probably in a short term Wave 2 downcycle, since Wave 1 peaked in dramatic rollover mode just after today 3-14's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. There might be a great entry point/short term Wave 2 cycle low for RUT on Monday.
I day traded RUT ultra long today, buying UWM at 44.56 and selling it at 45.10. I didn't realize when I bought UWM that RUT had put in a slightly higher rollover short term Wave 1 cycle high after the open, and, I thought RUT was in a short term Wave 3 upcycle when I bought UWM, but, I figured out that I needed to exit later on.
Thanks to the great "Trade the Cycles" market timing system I haven't had a losing trade in months, and, it's been a very difficult market. Trade the Cycles helped me to nail the SPX/NDX/RUT Cyclical Bear Market cycle highs (know the big picture, I/really my system caught the very important turning point).
SPX has a partly bullish candle today 3-14, since there's a bullish large/medium inverse spike on a black candle, with the black candle indicating a close below the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx
From looking at today's intraday SPX chart, there will probably be some early weakness Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, after which I'll be looking to trade the major averages ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM.
Reliable lead indicator WMT put in a large bearish spike on it's intraday chart near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, looks like it'll do a Wave C type move at Monday's open, which supports the early major averages weakness scenario.
The WMT Lead Indicator turned more bullish near session's end, at +0.54% versus SPX today/3-14, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I'll be looking to day trade or very short term trade (a few days) the major averages ultra long on Monday via SSO, QLD, or UWM, since a short term Wave 3 upcycle probably began late today for SPX/NDX and probably will on Monday for RUT after likely early weakness/the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began shortly after today's open bottoms.
VIX rose a substantial +14.18% today/3-14 versus the S & P 500 falling a sharp -2.08% today/3-14, which is an unusually large +12.10% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +12.10% = +14.18% + +-2.08% = +12.10% rise in fear) that points to some significant early weakness followed by strength on Monday 3-17.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
HUI is approaching a minor intermediate term cycle (began mid December 2007) high that will probably be a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began November 2000) cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Despite what the simple minded gold nitwits say, life is complicated, and, Cyclical Bears and major corrections/downcycles within Cyclical Bulls happen (12-2-03 to 5-10-04 for HUI for example) and, if one waits for long term HUI/XAU/gold trendlines to break down, one experiences huge % declines (30-40-50%) that most feel are unacceptable. The Elliott Wave count helped me to know that very important peaking action was occurring in May 2006.
The 5% major sell signal in May 2006 worked well. HUI/XAU/gold were underwater for 17 months, and, there was plenty of opportunity for traders get back in. Long term Investors shouldn't be chasing this huge spike move anyway.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold I have little else to add to 3-10's post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/major-averages-might-have-bottomed_10.html). Today 3-14's NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.76% versus the XAU. Check out the links at the post above that show gold and silver's two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market. I think the links changed at Sharelynx for the charts and I need to put new chart links in.
Remember that gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
A Cyclical Bear Market looms in the near future for HUI/XAU/gold/silver, take it from a REAL gold bug. There's no place for all the goofy bullish agendas that permeate the gold sector. Agendas are obviously suicide for REAL investors and traders. The gold nitwits are very brave with YOUR money, but, are trembling terrified little school kids with their money.
HUI/XAU should soon enter a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, as I said many times before. Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows and might not peak for a few weeks or even months after HUI/XAU peak
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) is probably in a short term Wave 2 downcycle, since Wave 1 peaked in dramatic rollover mode just after today 3-14's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. There might be a great entry point/short term Wave 2 cycle low for RUT on Monday.
I day traded RUT ultra long today, buying UWM at 44.56 and selling it at 45.10. I didn't realize when I bought UWM that RUT had put in a slightly higher rollover short term Wave 1 cycle high after the open, and, I thought RUT was in a short term Wave 3 upcycle when I bought UWM, but, I figured out that I needed to exit later on.
Thanks to the great "Trade the Cycles" market timing system I haven't had a losing trade in months, and, it's been a very difficult market. Trade the Cycles helped me to nail the SPX/NDX/RUT Cyclical Bear Market cycle highs (know the big picture, I/really my system caught the very important turning point).
SPX has a partly bullish candle today 3-14, since there's a bullish large/medium inverse spike on a black candle, with the black candle indicating a close below the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx
From looking at today's intraday SPX chart, there will probably be some early weakness Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, after which I'll be looking to trade the major averages ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM.
Reliable lead indicator WMT put in a large bearish spike on it's intraday chart near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, looks like it'll do a Wave C type move at Monday's open, which supports the early major averages weakness scenario.
The WMT Lead Indicator turned more bullish near session's end, at +0.54% versus SPX today/3-14, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I'll be looking to day trade or very short term trade (a few days) the major averages ultra long on Monday via SSO, QLD, or UWM, since a short term Wave 3 upcycle probably began late today for SPX/NDX and probably will on Monday for RUT after likely early weakness/the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began shortly after today's open bottoms.
VIX rose a substantial +14.18% today/3-14 versus the S & P 500 falling a sharp -2.08% today/3-14, which is an unusually large +12.10% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +12.10% = +14.18% + +-2.08% = +12.10% rise in fear) that points to some significant early weakness followed by strength on Monday 3-17.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
HUI is approaching a minor intermediate term cycle (began mid December 2007) high that will probably be a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began November 2000) cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Despite what the simple minded gold nitwits say, life is complicated, and, Cyclical Bears and major corrections/downcycles within Cyclical Bulls happen (12-2-03 to 5-10-04 for HUI for example) and, if one waits for long term HUI/XAU/gold trendlines to break down, one experiences huge % declines (30-40-50%) that most feel are unacceptable. The Elliott Wave count helped me to know that very important peaking action was occurring in May 2006.
The 5% major sell signal in May 2006 worked well. HUI/XAU/gold were underwater for 17 months, and, there was plenty of opportunity for traders get back in. Long term Investors shouldn't be chasing this huge spike move anyway.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold I have little else to add to 3-10's post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/major-averages-might-have-bottomed_10.html). Today 3-14's NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.76% versus the XAU. Check out the links at the post above that show gold and silver's two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market. I think the links changed at Sharelynx for the charts and I need to put new chart links in.
Remember that gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
A Cyclical Bear Market looms in the near future for HUI/XAU/gold/silver, take it from a REAL gold bug. There's no place for all the goofy bullish agendas that permeate the gold sector. Agendas are obviously suicide for REAL investors and traders. The gold nitwits are very brave with YOUR money, but, are trembling terrified little school kids with their money.
HUI/XAU should soon enter a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, as I said many times before. Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows and might not peak for a few weeks or even months after HUI/XAU peak
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:00 PM
4 Comments:
Great work, Joe. I love your stuff. I've been shorting gold and certain stocks of the XAU like crazy, just like you recommended. I'm looking forward to gold returning to $500! Right now, all my trades a big big losers, but I know they'll turn around soon! You're the best Joe!
By
Anonymous, at 4:26 PM
On this Blog I don't provide specific investment or trading advice to ANYONE. This Blog documents what I'm doing and how I use the (my) great Trade the Cycles market timing system.
Nearly all of my trades have been day trades in recent months in a very difficult market, and, all have been profitable.
Recently I've been saying that I suspect that HUI/XAU and gold (which lags HUI/XAU) had more upside. You are full of crap. No trader or investor worth his salt will blame someone else for his failings.
There are many gold/silver stock weaklings that would be good short sale candidates, just as there are high relative strength gold/silver stocks that would be candidates for long trades.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:15 PM
By the way clown, I never recommended that people short XAU components or anything else for that matter. I say what I'M looking to do not what anyone else should do.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:17 PM
People like you, Mr. Cowardly Anonymous, aren't bright enough to realize that the vast majority of people know BS when they see it, and, they know the real deal when they see it. Guess which one you and the gold nitwits are and guess which one I am?
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:16 PM
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