The Major Averages Were Strong Early Then Turned Down As Expected
The major averages were strong early then turned down as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24spx) might have bottomed at session's end, or, might do so early tomorrow, based on the intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, the sharp rise in fear revealed by VIX (discussed later), and, today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +0.98% versus SPX today 3-12, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
After putting in a slightly higher bullish double bottom Wave A intermediate term cycle low late on Monday 3-10 (with the 1-23-08 cycle low) SPX did a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle that peaked early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. A short term Wave 2 downcycle might have bottomed late today or will probably do so early tomorrow.
SPX's large bearish spike on today's bearish black candle, see http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24spx, that indicates a close below the open, suggests that SPX (S & P 500) might have more downside tomorrow.
I'll be looking to day trade or very short term trade (a few days) the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began early today has bottomed. Today I sold SSO at 67.2641 versus an entry point at 66.9499.
VIX rose a very sharp +3.26% today/3-12 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.90% today/3-12, which is a sharp +2.36% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +2.36% = +3.26% + -0.90% = +2.36% rise in fear) that points to some significant/potentially sharp strength tomorrow, after possibly some early weakness as discussed earlier.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold I have little to add to 3-10's post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/major-averages-might-have-bottomed_10.html). Today 3-12's NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.34% versus the XAU. Check out the links at the post above that show gold and silver's two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market.
A Cyclical Bear Market looms in the near future for HUI/XAU/gold/silver and might have already begun for HUI/XAU, take it from a REAL gold bug. There's no place for all the goofy bullish agendas that permeate the gold sector. Agendas are obviously suicide for REAL investors and traders. The gold nitwits are very brave with YOUR money, but, are trembling terrified little school kids with their money.
It's possible (and starting to look likely) that HUI/XAU entered a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 3-4-08 as I said many times before. Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows and might not peak for a few weeks or even months after HUI/XAU peak.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24spx) might have bottomed at session's end, or, might do so early tomorrow, based on the intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, the sharp rise in fear revealed by VIX (discussed later), and, today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +0.98% versus SPX today 3-12, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
After putting in a slightly higher bullish double bottom Wave A intermediate term cycle low late on Monday 3-10 (with the 1-23-08 cycle low) SPX did a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle that peaked early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. A short term Wave 2 downcycle might have bottomed late today or will probably do so early tomorrow.
SPX's large bearish spike on today's bearish black candle, see http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24spx, that indicates a close below the open, suggests that SPX (S & P 500) might have more downside tomorrow.
I'll be looking to day trade or very short term trade (a few days) the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began early today has bottomed. Today I sold SSO at 67.2641 versus an entry point at 66.9499.
VIX rose a very sharp +3.26% today/3-12 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.90% today/3-12, which is a sharp +2.36% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +2.36% = +3.26% + -0.90% = +2.36% rise in fear) that points to some significant/potentially sharp strength tomorrow, after possibly some early weakness as discussed earlier.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold I have little to add to 3-10's post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/major-averages-might-have-bottomed_10.html). Today 3-12's NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.34% versus the XAU. Check out the links at the post above that show gold and silver's two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market.
A Cyclical Bear Market looms in the near future for HUI/XAU/gold/silver and might have already begun for HUI/XAU, take it from a REAL gold bug. There's no place for all the goofy bullish agendas that permeate the gold sector. Agendas are obviously suicide for REAL investors and traders. The gold nitwits are very brave with YOUR money, but, are trembling terrified little school kids with their money.
It's possible (and starting to look likely) that HUI/XAU entered a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 3-4-08 as I said many times before. Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows and might not peak for a few weeks or even months after HUI/XAU peak.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:21 PM
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