Trade the Cycles

Sunday, March 09, 2008

......."High Commodity Prices No Gold Mine"

"High Commodity Prices No Gold Mine," see http://www.courant.com/business/hc-marksjarvis-ym0309.artmar09,0,492381.story.

Here's part of the article:

"One sure way to lose money as an investor is to buy something strictly because it keeps going up. Technology stocks proved it in 2000. Housing proved it in the years that followed.

Now, analysts are warning investors not to get carried away with commodities. Although gold, oil, metals and agricultural commodities have been breaking records and enriching investors while the stock market has been a loser, many analysts are growing skeptical.

"The price trend in wheat, oil and gold appears to be similar to the ones seen in the late 1990s for the Nasdaq, and in the mid-2000s for home builders," Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich said last week.

If investors were to see the prices of many commodities charted on a graph, they would see a line that shoots almost straight up over a short time period. That's known as a "parabolic curve," and it usually portends danger for investors — a sign of over-optimism that entices naive followers to join the herd toward the end of a cycle."

What can I say, got cycles?

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

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