SPX (S & P 500) And NDX (NASDAQ 100) Took Out The 2-7-08 Cycle Lows
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) took out the 2-7-08 cycle lows that looked like short term Wave 2 cycle lows, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. The early February decline did look like and turned out to be a Wave A type decline. Normally a short term Wave 2 downcycle only lasts a few days, so, this long four weekish short term Wave 2 downcycle is very deceptive action.
SPX and NDX might be putting in a short term Wave 2 cycle low today, modestly below the 2-7-08 cycle lows. If so then this downside surprise isn't a big deal pricewise, but, took a long time/about four weeks.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) are experiencing severe weakness today after very brief early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Note how HUI's cycle highs in recent days have been flattening out/rolling over. HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-525 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $970ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish the past month, at -0.89% versus the XAU on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX and NDX might be putting in a short term Wave 2 cycle low today, modestly below the 2-7-08 cycle lows. If so then this downside surprise isn't a big deal pricewise, but, took a long time/about four weeks.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) are experiencing severe weakness today after very brief early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Note how HUI's cycle highs in recent days have been flattening out/rolling over. HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-525 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $970ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish the past month, at -0.89% versus the XAU on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:02 AM
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