SPX (S & P 500) And NDX (NASDAQ 100) 2-7-08 Cycle Lows Held
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX's (NASDAQ 100) 2-7-08 (short term Wave 2) cycle lows held (so far at least), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, but, RUT's (Russell 2000) failed today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. It looks like RUT probably just entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle today, whereas SPX and NDX did so on 2-7-08.
Thursday's humongous $41 Billion in Repos, Friday's large $12.75 Billion, and, today's large $11.75 Billion, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is massive Fed credit that typically would result in very strong program buying, is a good reason why today is probably an important very short term cycle low for SPX/NDX, and, is probably a short term Wave 2 cycle low for RUT.
Note in the five day period ending 2-13-08 that Fed credit declined a significant -$3.367 Billion, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20080214/, and, the market/SPX (S & P 500) was weak for over a week after that, see the SPX historical data at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC.
In the five day period ending 2-20-08 the Fed added a large +8.524 Billion, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20080221/, and, the market/SPX bottomed two days later, then rallied very sharply for a few days.
In the five day period ending 2-27-08 Fed credit fell by a modest -$253 Million, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, and, the most recent market weakness occurred.
It's a fact that program trading is a huge part of the market (70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE I think), and, the info above supports that view. It would be interesting to do an exhaustive study of weekly Fed credit data versus % gains or losses. It probably couldn't be a mechanical one week later % gain/loss study, since cycles obviously don't follow exact timeframes.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
Thursday's humongous $41 Billion in Repos, Friday's large $12.75 Billion, and, today's large $11.75 Billion, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is massive Fed credit that typically would result in very strong program buying, is a good reason why today is probably an important very short term cycle low for SPX/NDX, and, is probably a short term Wave 2 cycle low for RUT.
Note in the five day period ending 2-13-08 that Fed credit declined a significant -$3.367 Billion, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20080214/, and, the market/SPX (S & P 500) was weak for over a week after that, see the SPX historical data at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC.
In the five day period ending 2-20-08 the Fed added a large +8.524 Billion, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20080221/, and, the market/SPX bottomed two days later, then rallied very sharply for a few days.
In the five day period ending 2-27-08 Fed credit fell by a modest -$253 Million, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, and, the most recent market weakness occurred.
It's a fact that program trading is a huge part of the market (70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE I think), and, the info above supports that view. It would be interesting to do an exhaustive study of weekly Fed credit data versus % gains or losses. It probably couldn't be a mechanical one week later % gain/loss study, since cycles obviously don't follow exact timeframes.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
Labels: SPX
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:18 AM
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