Very Long Term Gold Chart Shows The Two Cyclical Bear Markets In The Prior Secular Bull Market
This very long term gold chart shows the two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980 at $875ish (might have been the price at the close of the session, actual cycle high might have been $887ish), see http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/GC1970.gif.
There was a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market from May 1969 into 1970, in which gold fell -20%+, and, there was a Wave 4 Cyclical Bear Market from December 1974 until August 1976 (18 months), in which gold fell -45%+.
After gold peaked/put in a Secular Bull Market cycle high at $875ish in 1980, it quickly fell dramatically, hitting $296 in 1982 and $282 by the mid 1980s.
A Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high might be imminent for gold, and, if one doesn't occur in the next few days/weeks, one is likely to occur in the next few weeks/months.
Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows. Gold put in a Wave 3 long term cycle high in April 2004 (slightly higher double top with the January 2004 cycle high) versus HUI doing so on 12-2-03 and the XAU doing so on 1-6-04.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-550 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $975ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
The only time a market is timely from a long term investor's point of view is near it's primary uptrend line. How much faith should one put in all the gold writers who don't even get basic technical analysis?
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
There was a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market from May 1969 into 1970, in which gold fell -20%+, and, there was a Wave 4 Cyclical Bear Market from December 1974 until August 1976 (18 months), in which gold fell -45%+.
After gold peaked/put in a Secular Bull Market cycle high at $875ish in 1980, it quickly fell dramatically, hitting $296 in 1982 and $282 by the mid 1980s.
A Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high might be imminent for gold, and, if one doesn't occur in the next few days/weeks, one is likely to occur in the next few weeks/months.
Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows. Gold put in a Wave 3 long term cycle high in April 2004 (slightly higher double top with the January 2004 cycle high) versus HUI doing so on 12-2-03 and the XAU doing so on 1-6-04.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-550 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $975ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
The only time a market is timely from a long term investor's point of view is near it's primary uptrend line. How much faith should one put in all the gold writers who don't even get basic technical analysis?
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
Labels: Gold
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:27 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home