..............Look Out Below HUI, XAU, Gold!!!
It looks like HUI/XAU/gold are going to implode tomorrow. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.69% versus the XAU today/3-5, and, it tended to get more bearish as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Also, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.16% versus the S & P 500 today/3-5, and, it tended to get more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. When the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators strongly agree that usually means that a "big move" will occur.
HUI failed to exceed yesterday 3-4's cycle high at 505.65 (potential Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's very sharp rebound might be a countertrend Wave B upcycle, and, in the next day or two HUI might do a severe Wave C type downcycle, in which it would bottom well below yesterday 3-4's (potential) Wave A cycle low at 476.98.
Look how flat the XAU's peaks are the past week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. That long flat action probably points to a substantial decline, because, that's probably an important flat topping area. It's unusual to see five peaks that close together.
I'll probably be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or GLD (Gold ETF) early tomorrow.
HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already/yesterday 3-4.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-550 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $990ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish the past month, it was a very bearish -1.69% versus the XAU today/3-5, it was -0.53% on 3-4, it was -0.89% on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. The strong follow through and the large bullish inverse spike on yesterday's candle (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) are good signs.
However, today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -1.16% versus the S & P 500, casts doubt on whether a short term Wave 3 upcycle is in effect. I bought the Ultra Long S & P 500 ETF SSO at 66.95 today, shortly after an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred at mid session (and a large bullish inverse spike occurred on the intraday chart), and, it closed at 68.09. I might exit that position early tomorrow and look to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or GLD (Gold ETF).
Index related program buying, fueled by massive Fed credit since last Thursday 2-28 (humongous $41 Billion on Thursday 2-28 alone), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, finally kicked in during the last two hours of yesterday's session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.16% versus SPX today/3-5, was +0.31% on 3-4, +0.56% on 3-3, +0.52% on 2-29, -0.53% on 2-28, +0.15% on 2-27, +1.44% on 2-26.
Watch SPX's upside gap at 1367.68 from Friday 2-29's open, and, watch WMT's upside gap at 50.70 from Friday 2-29's open, that should/might get filled in the next day or two.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Also, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.16% versus the S & P 500 today/3-5, and, it tended to get more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. When the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators strongly agree that usually means that a "big move" will occur.
HUI failed to exceed yesterday 3-4's cycle high at 505.65 (potential Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's very sharp rebound might be a countertrend Wave B upcycle, and, in the next day or two HUI might do a severe Wave C type downcycle, in which it would bottom well below yesterday 3-4's (potential) Wave A cycle low at 476.98.
Look how flat the XAU's peaks are the past week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. That long flat action probably points to a substantial decline, because, that's probably an important flat topping area. It's unusual to see five peaks that close together.
I'll probably be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or GLD (Gold ETF) early tomorrow.
HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already/yesterday 3-4.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-550 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $990ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish the past month, it was a very bearish -1.69% versus the XAU today/3-5, it was -0.53% on 3-4, it was -0.89% on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. The strong follow through and the large bullish inverse spike on yesterday's candle (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) are good signs.
However, today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -1.16% versus the S & P 500, casts doubt on whether a short term Wave 3 upcycle is in effect. I bought the Ultra Long S & P 500 ETF SSO at 66.95 today, shortly after an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred at mid session (and a large bullish inverse spike occurred on the intraday chart), and, it closed at 68.09. I might exit that position early tomorrow and look to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or GLD (Gold ETF).
Index related program buying, fueled by massive Fed credit since last Thursday 2-28 (humongous $41 Billion on Thursday 2-28 alone), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, finally kicked in during the last two hours of yesterday's session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.16% versus SPX today/3-5, was +0.31% on 3-4, +0.56% on 3-3, +0.52% on 2-29, -0.53% on 2-28, +0.15% on 2-27, +1.44% on 2-26.
Watch SPX's upside gap at 1367.68 from Friday 2-29's open, and, watch WMT's upside gap at 50.70 from Friday 2-29's open, that should/might get filled in the next day or two.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:02 PM
5 Comments:
HUI/XAU's rate of ascent since 11-7-07 has declined dramatically. They've only made upside progress in about 5 to 7 sessions since 11-7-07.
However, HUI/XAU might not have peaked yet, and, gold might blast through $1000. Normally a very obvious very large spike will occur on the candle the day a market peaks, and that didn't happen yet.
Because this is a very long seven+ year upcycle (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market) peaking, the amount of rollover action in terms of time and price is making it very difficult to nail the final cycle high. Good luck.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:30 AM
Since the major averages entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle on Tuesday 3-4 program buying will tend to boost HUI/XAU and gold short term, which is securitized now as GLD, IAU, etc.
Many of the gold dingbats portray gold as a "safe haven" from stock market turmoil. It only is on a Secular 20 year basis. T Bills and T bonds are a safe haven from stock market turmoil, not gold.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:45 AM
AVNR, Avanir Pharmaceuticals, broke out today (major breakout) on strong volume due to some positive news. I'm avoiding the Biotechs like the plague because they tend to be very newsdriven. I mentioned it because it's a stock I discussed in the past and it's a major breakout.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:01 AM
Notice how gold got whacked early today along with stocks?
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:48 AM
Concerning AVNR, Avanir Pharmaceuticals, if you're considering buying it, it makes sense to wait for another day or two of follow through (a clear buy signal), then look to buy during a 2-4 day short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:01 AM
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