...........The Program Buying Finally Kicked In
The index related program buying, fueled by massive Fed credit since last Thursday 2-28 (humongous $41 Billion on Thursday 2-28 alone), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, finally kicked in during the last two hours of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500) has a large bullish inverse spike on today 3-4's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) hit a short term Wave 2 cycle low today, which jives with the very bullish five day WMT Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.31% versus SPX today/on 3-4, +0.56% on 3-3, +0.52% on 2-29, -0.53% on 2-28, +0.15% on 2-27, +1.44% on 2-26.
Watch SPX's upside gaps at 1331.34 (nearly got filled late today) from today's open and at 1367.68 from Friday 2-29's open, and, watch WMT's upside gap at 50.70 from Friday 2-29's open, that should/might get filled in the next day or two.
I'll be looking to trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, and, I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or GLD (Gold ETF). I might even "double short" gold via the new ETN DZZ, except that it's thinly traded right now. I might wait for DZZ's volume to pick up before possibly starting to trade it.
Supposedly, with an ETF (as opposed to an ETN) there isn't a liquidity problem (getting into and out of a trade easily) even if the volume is very low (0 to 100,00 shares average daily volume). I don't think that's the case with Exchange Traded Notes like DZZ. I need to research ETNs and DZZ specifically some more.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) experienced severe weakness today (HUI fell -5.67% peak to trough) after very brief early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Note how HUI's cycle highs in recent days had flattened out/rolled over.
HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't today 3-4.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-525 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me. The gold sector is littered with cheerleader dinosaurs from the 1970s that in some cases behave like 12 year olds, and, many younger people that act no better.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $960ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish the past month, at -0.53% versus the XAU today/3-4, at -0.89% on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX (S & P 500) has a large bullish inverse spike on today 3-4's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) hit a short term Wave 2 cycle low today, which jives with the very bullish five day WMT Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.31% versus SPX today/on 3-4, +0.56% on 3-3, +0.52% on 2-29, -0.53% on 2-28, +0.15% on 2-27, +1.44% on 2-26.
Watch SPX's upside gaps at 1331.34 (nearly got filled late today) from today's open and at 1367.68 from Friday 2-29's open, and, watch WMT's upside gap at 50.70 from Friday 2-29's open, that should/might get filled in the next day or two.
I'll be looking to trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, and, I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or GLD (Gold ETF). I might even "double short" gold via the new ETN DZZ, except that it's thinly traded right now. I might wait for DZZ's volume to pick up before possibly starting to trade it.
Supposedly, with an ETF (as opposed to an ETN) there isn't a liquidity problem (getting into and out of a trade easily) even if the volume is very low (0 to 100,00 shares average daily volume). I don't think that's the case with Exchange Traded Notes like DZZ. I need to research ETNs and DZZ specifically some more.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) experienced severe weakness today (HUI fell -5.67% peak to trough) after very brief early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Note how HUI's cycle highs in recent days had flattened out/rolled over.
HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't today 3-4.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-525 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me. The gold sector is littered with cheerleader dinosaurs from the 1970s that in some cases behave like 12 year olds, and, many younger people that act no better.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $960ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the very bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish the past month, at -0.53% versus the XAU today/3-4, at -0.89% on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:21 PM
6 Comments:
How are those GOLD shorts working out??
By
Anonymous, at 9:58 AM
What gold short? I didn't say I was short or that I even would short gold today if I did go short, it might have been GDX, the Gold Miners ETF. I'm short neither right now. Singular not plural by the way is proper English. Gold short NOT gold shorts.
You're a good example of the goofy oddball loser bullish agenda mentality that permeates the gold sector, which is very sad and tragic.
Losers like you have left many phony goofball messages that I don't usually allow. One was full of ethnic slurs regarding my Italian ancestry. Ignorant nitwits/POSs will be POSs I guess. Is a scam artist your "big hero?"
There should be many great opportunities to short gold and gold stocks in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that will soon begin.
Bullish agendas are for rank amateurs and scam artists. An agenda with trading or investing is suicide. You obviously have to do what makes sense. Gold's primary multi year trendline is at $500ish right now. Do you like losing money?
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:14 AM
By the way Goofy, if HUI fails to exceed yesterday 3-4's cycle high at 505.65 (potential Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high) today, then today's very sharp rebound might be a countertrend Wave B upcycle, and, in the next day or two HUI might do a severe Wave C type downcycle, in which it would bottom well below yesterday's cycle low at 476.98.
If you stay on the path you're on Goofy you're DOOMED. Agendas are suicide when it comes to trading/investing.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:40 AM
There was an 18 to 20 month gold/XAU Cyclical Bear Market in 1975/1976, in the midst of what was a Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, and, that's very likely what's about to transpire over the next 18 to 20 months once gold/HUI/XAU turn down.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:21 AM
From early 1975 until late Summer/early Fall 1976 gold fell about 45% in about 18 months. A similar decline over the next 18 months or so would bring gold down to about $545, which is close to the $500-525 I've mentioned many times.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:54 AM
As I said before, I'm a REAL goldbug, not some trumped up scam artist ignorant nitwit. Agendas don't cut it and don't work. The market is ruled by program trading. The attempts to manipulate gold are futile. Gold tends to follow the S & P 500 on a very short term basis especially due to program trading. Your hero doesn't even understand how the market works.
It's only on a very long term 20 yearish Secular basis that gold's correlation with the S & P 500 becomes clearly negative.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 12:29 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home