The Major Averages Might Have Bottomed Today
The major averages might have bottomed today, see
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) put in a bullish double bottom near session's end on the intraday chart, and, might have put in a bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low with the 1-23-08 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The major averages are trying to put in an important Wave A intermediate term cycle low. Even if SPX's cycle low from 1-23-08 holds, a double bottom intermediate term cycle low would occur.
Walmart (WMT) might have bottomed near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and note that volume picked up dramatically near session's end.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.55% versus SPX today, but, the five day WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. Today's bearish WMT Lead Indicator might already be factored in.
The major averages' technical indicators like RSI and Williams %R are extremely oversold right now.
VIX rose a substantial +6.84% versus the S & P 500 falling -1.55%, which is a very sharp +5.29% rise in fear (+6.84% + -1.55% = +5.29% rise in the SPX wall of worry/fear) that points to potentially substantial strength tomorrow.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT.
HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already/on 3-4.
HUI/XAU might have put in a very short term cycle low today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
As I said in the comments area:
"HUI/XAU's rate of ascent since 11-7-07 has declined dramatically. They've only made upside progress in about 5 to 7 sessions since 11-7-07. However, HUI/XAU might not have peaked yet, and, gold might blast through $1000. Normally, a very obvious very large spike will occur on the candle the day a market peaks, and that didn't happen yet.
Because this is a very long seven+ year upcycle (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market) peaking, the amount of rollover action in terms of time and price is making it very difficult to nail the final cycle high."
Gold had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-had-two-cyclical-bear-markets-in.html, as did silver, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/silvers-two-cyclical-bear-markets-in.html.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-550 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $975ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.42% versus the XAU today 3-10, it was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the XAU on 3-7, it was -0.51% on 3-6, it was -1.69% on 3-5, it was -0.53% on 3-4, it was -0.89% on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) put in a bullish double bottom near session's end on the intraday chart, and, might have put in a bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low with the 1-23-08 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The major averages are trying to put in an important Wave A intermediate term cycle low. Even if SPX's cycle low from 1-23-08 holds, a double bottom intermediate term cycle low would occur.
Walmart (WMT) might have bottomed near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and note that volume picked up dramatically near session's end.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.55% versus SPX today, but, the five day WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. Today's bearish WMT Lead Indicator might already be factored in.
The major averages' technical indicators like RSI and Williams %R are extremely oversold right now.
VIX rose a substantial +6.84% versus the S & P 500 falling -1.55%, which is a very sharp +5.29% rise in fear (+6.84% + -1.55% = +5.29% rise in the SPX wall of worry/fear) that points to potentially substantial strength tomorrow.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT.
HUI/XAU are in the process of putting in a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high. An 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already/on 3-4.
HUI/XAU might have put in a very short term cycle low today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
As I said in the comments area:
"HUI/XAU's rate of ascent since 11-7-07 has declined dramatically. They've only made upside progress in about 5 to 7 sessions since 11-7-07. However, HUI/XAU might not have peaked yet, and, gold might blast through $1000. Normally, a very obvious very large spike will occur on the candle the day a market peaks, and that didn't happen yet.
Because this is a very long seven+ year upcycle (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market) peaking, the amount of rollover action in terms of time and price is making it very difficult to nail the final cycle high."
Gold had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-had-two-cyclical-bear-markets-in.html, as did silver, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/silvers-two-cyclical-bear-markets-in.html.
The action in HUI/XAU/gold clearly points to very important peaking action. See a previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/huixau-are-in-wave-5-of-rollover-wave-5.html.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-550 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
Gold is extremely untimely from a long term investor's point of view, since it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish versus a spot price at $975ish now, which is basic technical analysis.
See the five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.42% versus the XAU today 3-10, it was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the XAU on 3-7, it was -0.51% on 3-6, it was -1.69% on 3-5, it was -0.53% on 3-4, it was -0.89% on 3-3, -0.07% on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:19 PM
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