Constructive Action By The Major Averages Today
SPX (S & P 500) plunged early today/3-13 as expected, and, put in a cycle low modestly above Tuesday 3-10's likely Wave A intermediate term cycle low (slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1-23-08 cycle low), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. After bottoming early in the session SPX quickly and dramatically reversed course, and, filled today's upside gap at mid session, which confirmed the bullish case.
SPX has a bullish candle today 3-13, since there's a bullish large inverse spike on a white candle, with the white candle indicating a close above the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
From looking at today's intraday SPX chart, it isn't crystal clear, but, there might be some early weakness tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, after which I'll be looking to trade the major averages ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM.
The WMT Lead Indicator turned slightly bullish near session's end, at +0.11% versus SPX today/3-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I'll be looking to day trade or very short term trade (a few days) the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, since a short term Wave 3 upcycle began early today.
VIX rose a modest +0.26% today/3-13 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +0.51% today/3-13, which is a significant +0.77% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +0.77% = +0.26% + +0.51% = +0.77% rise in fear) that points to some significant strength tomorrow 3-14.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold I have little to add to 3-10's post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/major-averages-might-have-bottomed_10.html). Today 3-13's NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.18% versus the XAU. Check out the links at the post above that show gold and silver's two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market.
From 3-4-08 to today/3-13-08 HUI rose a modest +0.60%, excuse me if I don't get excited.
Remember that gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
A Cyclical Bear Market looms in the near future for HUI/XAU/gold/silver and might have already begun for HUI/XAU, take it from a REAL gold bug. There's no place for all the goofy bullish agendas that permeate the gold sector. Agendas are obviously suicide for REAL investors and traders. The gold nitwits are very brave with YOUR money, but, are trembling terrified little school kids with their money.
HUI/XAU should soon enter a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, as I said many times before. Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows and might not peak for a few weeks or even months after HUI/XAU peak.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX has a bullish candle today 3-13, since there's a bullish large inverse spike on a white candle, with the white candle indicating a close above the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
From looking at today's intraday SPX chart, it isn't crystal clear, but, there might be some early weakness tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, after which I'll be looking to trade the major averages ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM.
The WMT Lead Indicator turned slightly bullish near session's end, at +0.11% versus SPX today/3-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I'll be looking to day trade or very short term trade (a few days) the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, since a short term Wave 3 upcycle began early today.
VIX rose a modest +0.26% today/3-13 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +0.51% today/3-13, which is a significant +0.77% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +0.77% = +0.26% + +0.51% = +0.77% rise in fear) that points to some significant strength tomorrow 3-14.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold I have little to add to 3-10's post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/major-averages-might-have-bottomed_10.html). Today 3-13's NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.18% versus the XAU. Check out the links at the post above that show gold and silver's two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market.
From 3-4-08 to today/3-13-08 HUI rose a modest +0.60%, excuse me if I don't get excited.
Remember that gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
A Cyclical Bear Market looms in the near future for HUI/XAU/gold/silver and might have already begun for HUI/XAU, take it from a REAL gold bug. There's no place for all the goofy bullish agendas that permeate the gold sector. Agendas are obviously suicide for REAL investors and traders. The gold nitwits are very brave with YOUR money, but, are trembling terrified little school kids with their money.
HUI/XAU should soon enter a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, as I said many times before. Gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows and might not peak for a few weeks or even months after HUI/XAU peak.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:44 PM
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