It Could Have Been Much Worse For The Major Averages
The major averages had another tough day thanks to the Bear Stearns debacle/dirt cheap buyout, but, by session's end SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) was down only -0.90%, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. Also, the intraday Elliott Wave pattern points to a likely Wave 5 move early tomorrow, in which SPX will probably fill today 3-17's upside gap at 1288.14 (almost got filled late today).
SPX has a large bullish inverse spike on today's black candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, the five day WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish (+1.16% versus SPX today/on 3-17, +0.54% on 3-14, +0.11% on 3-13, +0.98% on 3-12), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, so, today might have been a Wave A intermediate term cycle low for SPX, but, it's obviously a very newsdriven market and waiting for a few days of strong follow through (buy signal) makes a lot of sense.
VIX rose a very sharp +3.47% today/3-17 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.90% today/3-17, which is a sharp +2.57% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +2.57% = +3.47% + + -0.90% = +2.57% rise in fear) that points to some significant/potentially sharp strength on Tuesday 3-18.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, but, the Fed FOMC is tomorrow, and, it's a very newsdriven market, so, I might trade a smaller position than I normally would, if I trade at all.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" (once an intermediate term upcycle clearly begins obviously) due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Trade the Cycles has been correct about gold's Secular Bull Market. I can take credit for this strength just like many gold writers can. It isn't any great revelation that gold is in a Secular Bull Market.
I'm the only one who seems to get that gold and silver will soon be in a (Wave 2) Cyclical Bear Market, which of course means that Wave 3 and Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Markets probably lie ahead for gold and silver. You people who keep leaving obvious phony agenda comments, I'm about pure science, what are you about?
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX has a large bullish inverse spike on today's black candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, the five day WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish (+1.16% versus SPX today/on 3-17, +0.54% on 3-14, +0.11% on 3-13, +0.98% on 3-12), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, so, today might have been a Wave A intermediate term cycle low for SPX, but, it's obviously a very newsdriven market and waiting for a few days of strong follow through (buy signal) makes a lot of sense.
VIX rose a very sharp +3.47% today/3-17 versus the S & P 500 falling a significant -0.90% today/3-17, which is a sharp +2.57% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry rose by +2.57% = +3.47% + + -0.90% = +2.57% rise in fear) that points to some significant/potentially sharp strength on Tuesday 3-18.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long tomorrow via SSO, QLD, or UWM, but, the Fed FOMC is tomorrow, and, it's a very newsdriven market, so, I might trade a smaller position than I normally would, if I trade at all.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" (once an intermediate term upcycle clearly begins obviously) due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Trade the Cycles has been correct about gold's Secular Bull Market. I can take credit for this strength just like many gold writers can. It isn't any great revelation that gold is in a Secular Bull Market.
I'm the only one who seems to get that gold and silver will soon be in a (Wave 2) Cyclical Bear Market, which of course means that Wave 3 and Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Markets probably lie ahead for gold and silver. You people who keep leaving obvious phony agenda comments, I'm about pure science, what are you about?
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:48 PM
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