Trade the Cycles

Sunday, March 30, 2008

China's Shanghai SSE Composite Index Is Crashing

China's Shanghai SSE Composite Index is crashing, down about 43-44% in only five months, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=. This is obviously very deflationary and doesn't bode well for commodities.

The major worldwide deflationary economic downcycle is a huge negative for commodities. Gold is a hedge against inflationary economic upcycles. The commodities game is basically over for about 18 months (Cyclical Bear within a Secular 20 yearish Bull). The scam artists and nitwits won't give up without a fight however.

It should be amusing to watch the scam artists and nitwits get exposed for exactly what they are in the coming weeks and months. The recent crash made very few of them get religion. Maybe some time behind bars (where some belong) will get them some religion.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 12:48 PM

9 Comments:

  • I've read that China's lending practices almost make the US's look responsible. They "lend" money in many cases without expecting it to be repaid.

    China's very rapid pace of growth the past 10-15 years could easily/probably will result in a very deflationary economic bust, that's probably already begun.

    Remember in the 1980s when Japan was supposed to pass the US, then their economy/stock market went bust in 1989, and, the Nikkei Index is only about 1/3 of where it was at the 1989 peak NINETEEN YEARS later. Invest for the long term? Hell NO! Get cycles? Hell yes!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:20 PM  

  • More racial slurs about my Italian ancestry from the vile ignorant gold nitwits.

    To answer your question though, yes, ALL of gold's upside versus the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730 came in Wave 5 of the rollover long term upcycle that began after June 2006's cycle low at $542. Gold was underwater for 17 months versus the 5-11-06 cycle high.

    For long term investors IT DOESN'T MATTER because they should only buy gold near it's primary Secular Bull Market uptrend line at $500ish right now. The scam artists would have investors buy gold nearly all the time.

    Traders had plenty of opportunity to get back in and profit using cycle trendlines, the Elliott Wave count, gaps, etc.

    Note that in 3 sessions time gold gave back about $124, so, it's good to exit early.

    Will your vile ignorant piece of dogcrap hero get gold investors out now as he should be doing (at least urge caution), or, is he a scam artist/criminal?

    The reality is that the real world is much more complex than the vile ignorant gold nitwits will ever admit.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:32 PM  

  • Just remember, professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward.

    By the way, Trade the Cycles has always maintained that gold was probably (can never say 100%) in a Secular Bull Market, so, I can take credit for the spike to $1030just as most gold writers can, and, diehard buy and hold types would have stayed long if they were using my system/work.

    It isn't any great revelation that gold is probably in a Secular Bull Market heading for $2000ish. I seem to be the only one who gets that a Cyclical Bear is imminent/has basically already begun, there could be a double top.

    Gold is heading for $500-550, IGNORE THE GOOFY CORRUPT GOLD LOONS!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:42 PM  

  • Also, I've really been timing HUI/XAU for the most part (gold usually lags at important cycle highs/lows), and, they rolled over from the November cycle high to the January cycle high, which was a bearish sign.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:16 PM  

  • By the way a deception for personal gain is FRAUD, it's criminal activity.

    Also, trying to manipulate gold and/or certain gold stocks with nearly always if not always bullish articles and constant pumping on message boards is criminal activity. You better watch out if you're involved in criminal activity.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:24 PM  

  • Some dingbat just spent a lot of time writing a long comment attacking me. My system/work compares favorably with anything I've seen. Most gold writers always stay bullish.

    It isn't any great revelation that gold is in a Secular Bull Market. The fact is that the ONLY TIME that gold is timely for long term investors is near it's Secular Bull Market trendline, currently at $500ish. That's BASIC TA, yet, have you seen any other gold writer say that?

    I'll pit Trade the Cycles/my work against the best hedge funds, market timers, etc.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:48 PM  

  • By the way dude who just left that long pile of dogcrap disallowed comment, I KNOW how good my system and work is (I can't remember the last time I had a losing trade), and, it's obvious what a FRAUD you are.

    The reason you vile asswipes are attacking me nearly every day is becuase you KNOW what I say is true and I am a BIG threat (influential, possibly the best timer) to your fragile house of cards, that is imploding. Buh bye!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:01 PM  

  • The fact is that long term investors should NEVER chase huge spike moves. FACT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:48 PM  

  • OK dude who left another bogus disallowed comment, here's a challenge for you. Find a link to a gold writer who shows (even if the trendline is wrong) and discusses gold's primary multi year uptrend line since April 2001, without which it's impossible to know when gold is timely for long term investors.

    Not only am I the best for traders, I'm probably the ONLY one who discusses what's right for long term investors.

    Dude, you are an idiot. Nearly all if not all other gold writers have long term investors chase huge parabolic spike moves, which is poor advice.

    I constantly get bogus comments from morons like you saying how gold can't fall to it's primary trendline, currently at $500ish. Dude, gold HAS to fall to it's primary trendline. This is very basic stuff. You are a NITWIT!

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 6:50 AM  

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