SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 3 Of A Big Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Appears To Have Peaked Today
SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 3 of a big short term Wave 1 upcycle appears to have peaked today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
SPX has a large bearish spike on today 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.78% versus SPX today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 and a downside gap at 1329.51 from today's open. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
VIX fell a very sharp -3.34% on 3-24 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +1.53% on 3-24, which is a significant +1.81% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -1.81% = -3.34% + +1.53% = +1.81% rise in complacency) that points to some significant weakness on Tuesday 3-25.
I'll probably be looking to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Tuesday via SDS, QID, or TWM. I'm also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably puts) on Tuesday. Today I day traded SSO, buying it a hair under 69.20 and selling it a hair over 69.41.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.19% versus the XAU on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Looking at HUI's five day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, the upcycle from early 3-20 to early today 3-24 appears to have been a very short term countertrend Wave B type move, so, it looks like another potentially large decline might occur tomorrow/on Tuesday.
The XAU has a large bearish spike on today 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Exau. I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners Index, early tomorrow.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The -18.29% HUI Wave A type decline in a little under three sessions time last week (might not have bottomed yet), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, this weakness has been about as severe as it gets.
The severe weakness/action in recent days tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX has a large bearish spike on today 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.78% versus SPX today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 and a downside gap at 1329.51 from today's open. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
VIX fell a very sharp -3.34% on 3-24 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +1.53% on 3-24, which is a significant +1.81% rise in complacency (the SPX wall of worry shrank by -1.81% = -3.34% + +1.53% = +1.81% rise in complacency) that points to some significant weakness on Tuesday 3-25.
I'll probably be looking to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Tuesday via SDS, QID, or TWM. I'm also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably puts) on Tuesday. Today I day traded SSO, buying it a hair under 69.20 and selling it a hair over 69.41.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.19% versus the XAU on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Looking at HUI's five day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, the upcycle from early 3-20 to early today 3-24 appears to have been a very short term countertrend Wave B type move, so, it looks like another potentially large decline might occur tomorrow/on Tuesday.
The XAU has a large bearish spike on today 3-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Exau. I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners Index, early tomorrow.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The -18.29% HUI Wave A type decline in a little under three sessions time last week (might not have bottomed yet), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, this weakness has been about as severe as it gets.
The severe weakness/action in recent days tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:01 PM
3 Comments:
The very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early 3-20 appears to be peaking in rollover mode early today. HUI/XAU/gold spiked at the open then declined as expected.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:00 AM
To whoever left the BS phony comment. HUI/XAU/gold have had such an obvious major sell signal/technical breakdown of well established uptrend lines, that, the fact that you would even take/waste the time to write such drivel shows what a loser/nitwit you are. As I said before, NEM is probably in a Cyclical Bull Market.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:13 AM
And Mr. Yellow Anonymous, the huge difference between myself and you/many gold writers is that I always give my God's honest opinion, whereas, trash like you are criminals engaged in fraud (deception for personal gain, criminal activity). You misrepresent gold's propects for personal gain. FRAUD. Look out because it might catch up to you.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:22 AM
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