SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 4 Down Of The Big Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Probably Bottomed Just After Today's Open
SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave 4 down (began mid session Monday 3-24) of the big short term Wave 1 Upcycle since 3-17 probably bottomed just after today 3-31's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX's decline that occurred during the last 2/3 of the Friday 3-28's session was a final Wave C type parabolic/steep decline as expected/discussed Friday.
Also, SPX put in a bullish large inverse spike on the 5 day intraday candlestick just before session's end Friday 3-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which was a sign that SPX might have put in a very short term Wave 4 (began 3-24) cycle low, or, in this case, that one was imminent/occurred right after today's open.
The WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) was a bullish +0.50% versus SPX today 3-31, was a modestly bullish +0.32% versus SPX on 3-28, was +0.15% on 3-27, and, was +0.60% on 3-26.
SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 that might get filled in the near future. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
VIX fell a modest -0.39% today/on 3-31 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +0.57% on 3-31, which is a slight +0.18% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +0.18% = -0.39% + +0.57% = +0.18% rise in fear) that points to some slight strength on Tuesday 4-1.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Tuesday via SSO, QLD, or UWM. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Tuesday.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Here's a bearish gold article http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4159.html. Ski/Jeff Kern (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html) and Jack Chan (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan033108.html) have turned bearish also.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Morons leaving phony comments (and most gold writers) don't even understand basic technical analysis.
Nearly all if not all gold writers have long term investors chase huge parabolic spike moves, which is poor advice. Any investment is only timely for long term investors near it's primary trendline.
I constantly get bogus comments from morons saying how gold can't fall to it's primary trendline, currently at $500ish. Gold HAS to fall to it's primary trendline. This is very basic stuff.
Try finding a link to a gold writer who shows (even if the trendline is wrong) and discusses gold's primary multi year uptrend line since April 2001, without which it's impossible to know when gold is timely for long term investors.
HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-20, following the week before last's huge short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions, and, bottomed on 3-20) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
HUI/XAU/gold probably put in a Wave 2 cycle low of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle today 3-31, since there's an up down pattern on the daily chart since 3-20, when Wave B started, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
When the final short term countertrend Wave B (began 3-20) cycle high occurs there's likely to be a large bearish spike on the daily candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator should be extremely bearish. Also, waiting for a sharp very short term Wave A type downcycle (sell signal, look for the short term Wave B upcycle trendline to clearly break down) before holding a short position/puts overnight (look to enter trades in a very short term countertrend Wave B) makes a lot of sense.
From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart (intraday Elliott Wave count) it looks like a bit more strength/follow through will occur early on Tuesday 4-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.74% versus the XAU today/on 3-31, was a bullish +0.80% versus the XAU on 3-28, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 3-27, was a very bearish -1.44% on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The -18.29% HUI short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time the week before last, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.
The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
....... http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Also, SPX put in a bullish large inverse spike on the 5 day intraday candlestick just before session's end Friday 3-28, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which was a sign that SPX might have put in a very short term Wave 4 (began 3-24) cycle low, or, in this case, that one was imminent/occurred right after today's open.
The WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) was a bullish +0.50% versus SPX today 3-31, was a modestly bullish +0.32% versus SPX on 3-28, was +0.15% on 3-27, and, was +0.60% on 3-26.
SPX (S & P 500) has an upside gap at 1367.68 that might get filled in the near future. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) probably did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
VIX fell a modest -0.39% today/on 3-31 versus the S & P 500 rising a significant +0.57% on 3-31, which is a slight +0.18% rise in fear (the SPX wall of worry grew by +0.18% = -0.39% + +0.57% = +0.18% rise in fear) that points to some slight strength on Tuesday 4-1.
I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Tuesday via SSO, QLD, or UWM. I'll also be looking at trading some major averages options (probably calls) on Tuesday.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Here's a bearish gold article http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4159.html. Ski/Jeff Kern (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html) and Jack Chan (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan033108.html) have turned bearish also.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line is at $500ish, see chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Morons leaving phony comments (and most gold writers) don't even understand basic technical analysis.
Nearly all if not all gold writers have long term investors chase huge parabolic spike moves, which is poor advice. Any investment is only timely for long term investors near it's primary trendline.
I constantly get bogus comments from morons saying how gold can't fall to it's primary trendline, currently at $500ish. Gold HAS to fall to it's primary trendline. This is very basic stuff.
Try finding a link to a gold writer who shows (even if the trendline is wrong) and discusses gold's primary multi year uptrend line since April 2001, without which it's impossible to know when gold is timely for long term investors.
HUI/XAU/gold are doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-20, following the week before last's huge short term Wave A downcycle (HUI fell -18.29% in a little under three sessions, and, bottomed on 3-20) that triggered a very important 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
HUI/XAU/gold probably put in a Wave 2 cycle low of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle today 3-31, since there's an up down pattern on the daily chart since 3-20, when Wave B started, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
When the final short term countertrend Wave B (began 3-20) cycle high occurs there's likely to be a large bearish spike on the daily candle, and, the NEM Lead Indicator should be extremely bearish. Also, waiting for a sharp very short term Wave A type downcycle (sell signal, look for the short term Wave B upcycle trendline to clearly break down) before holding a short position/puts overnight (look to enter trades in a very short term countertrend Wave B) makes a lot of sense.
From HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart (intraday Elliott Wave count) it looks like a bit more strength/follow through will occur early on Tuesday 4-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.74% versus the XAU today/on 3-31, was a bullish +0.80% versus the XAU on 3-28, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 3-27, was a very bearish -1.44% on 3-26, was an extremely bearish -1.85% on 3-25, was an extremely bearish -2.19% on 3-20, and, was a bearish -0.63% on 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Concerning HUI/XAU/gold, the important thing now is that HUI/XAU/gold hit a 5% follow through major sell signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The multi month uptrend lines broke down and 5%+ follow through occurred to the downside. HUI/XAU/gold (gold might lag and peak in rollover mode) are in the midst of a major intermediate term downcycle, that's probably the start of an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. HUI/XAU/gold will probably fall -50%+ in this bear market. Got cycles?
Gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the previous Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-silvers-two-cyclical-bear.html.
HUI/XAU very likely put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The -18.29% HUI short term Wave A downcycle in a little under three sessions time the week before last, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is very likely an (probably extremely) important turning point/very strong sell signal. The more severe the weakness the stronger the sell signal tends to be, and, the weakness was about as severe as it gets.
The severe weakness/action recently tells us something, just as the severe weakness/5% sell signal that occurred in May 2006 was a good one, since HUI/XAU/gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were underwater versus the May 2006 cycle high for about 17 months.
A rollover long term upcycle was in effect from June 2006 (from October 2006 for the XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) until the recent cycle highs, that was probably the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU and in April 2001 for gold, which was a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the 1999 cycle low) peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the May 2006 cycle high. One can only discuss likely scenarios, not certainties.
Gold and gold mining scams are commonplace, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/03/gold-and-gold-mining-scams-are.html.
....... http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:22 PM
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