.......CEGE Filled It's Downside Gap At 4.31

CEGE filled it's downside gap at 4.31 late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. This means that CEGE's Wave C should be bottoming (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CEGE&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), because 3.50 is a likely large bullish breakaway gap. There will probably be more downside early tomorrow, 4.27 probably isn't the Wave C cycle low.

There's no need to bottom fish though, waiting for a complete very short term (1-2 days, or even short term =2-5 days) cycle (Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle plus ABC downcycle), in which Wave C bottoms above the Wave C cycle low that occurs late today or (likely) early tomorrow, makes sense. I'm either going to buy a Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 1, or, I'll buy a short term Wave 2 down.

PPCO has clearly entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle that looks like it might bottom early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ppco&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

ERHE.OB is either in a Wave 3 short term upcycle or is still in a large Wave 1, but, could also still be in Wave 2 down if it takes out 0.36 tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It's huge spike move has complicated the monthly cycle Elliott Wave count. It should clear up in a day or two.

AVNR's large gap up to 3.71 from 3.34 appears to be a bullish breakaway gap, and, after putting in a very short term third/Wave 5 cycle high at 3.83 early today (Wave 4 short term cycle low at 3.17 last Thursday), it did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that appears to have bottomed at 3.49 late today, so, AVNR will probably be firm early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.

Rockets that appear to be very close to monthly cycle lows are CEGE, NGEN, and PPHM.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

AVNR Made A Large Likely Bullish Breakaway Gap And CALVF.OB Blasted Off

AVNR made a large likely bullish breakaway gap at today's open to 3.71 from 3.34 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), and, CALVF.OB has blasted off recently (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern) on strong volume, and, joined the rockets club (doing countertrend Wave B now), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, after a more than four year Cyclical Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. LMC is another mining stock (base metals, discussed previously) in the rockets club.

AVNR put in a very short term third/Wave 5 cycle high early today at 3.83 (Wave 4 short term cycle low occurred at 3.17 last Thursday), which is why, despite the large likely bullish breakaway gap at today's open to 3.71 from 3.34, it's been lethargic, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

CALVF.OB should be a great buy (technically/cyclewise) in the 10-14 cent range, probably more like 10-12 cents for the final Wave C cycle low target range, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Wave A bottomed at 0.15ish.

PPCO probably entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle early today, so, it should do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern the next day or two, and, a good entry point should occur once Wave 2 bottoms (or nearly so, obviously one rarely catches the exact bottom), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ppco&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

ERHE.OB did a nearly 1 day Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (huge spike) that's probably a Wave 1 short term upcycle, then did a Wave 2 short term downcycle/Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern for a few hours (very short short term cycles that normally last at least a few days), so, it appears to be in a Wave 3 short term upcycle, or, a large Wave 1 may still be in effect, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/04/some-rockets-that-appear-timely.html.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18 month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.

Rockets that appear to be very close to monthly cycle lows are NGEN and PPHM. CEGE could bottom soon at 4ish, after filling it's downside gap at 4.31. ERHE.OB and PPCO are in Wave 1 short term upcycles or could be early in Wave 2 down of monthly upcycles.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.............Some Rockets That Appear Timely

I said that AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN would probably be the main focus of rocket trading for a while, but, probably not.

NGEN appears to have recently entered a Cyclical Bull Market after a more than three year Cyclical Bear Market (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NGEN&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, but, must also look at 6 month chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NGEN&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=).

In the 6 month chart one can see that NGEN made a huge bullish breakaway gap to the upside on very high volume, and, did a textbook Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up monthly upcycle, and, appears to have nearly completed (might have completed) the down part of the monthly cycle, having done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern. There are no downside gaps that are likely to get filled, since the 1.26 is the huge 30 cent (25%ish) likely bullish breakaway gap (the nearest unfilled downside gap).

With rocket trading (for now) I'm probably going to wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle (wait for strength/hit a buy signal, which means that I wait for a monthly upcycle to clearly begin) and look to buy in Wave 2 down. Once I see how well my monthly cycle low targets work I may try to catch bottoms at some point.

Other rockets I might be trading in the near future are:

SUPG (Wave C target 5.75 but buy Wave 2 down, downside gaps at 6.08, 5.90, large bullish likely breakaway gaps at 4.89, 4.61), ERHE (Wave 1/early Wave 2 (huge spike)), PPHM (Wave C close to bottom, no downside gaps, bearish I Watch past week), PPCO (Wave 1, bullish I Watch), LMC (Wave C, buying RNO, target 10.50ish, downside gaps at 12.26, 11.45 (potential breakaway gap), 11.15 (potential breakaway gap), 10.69, 10.58, 9.59 (probably breakaway gap)).

Here's all 7 stocks mentioned in this post (except AVNR and DNDN) 3 month TA charts http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ngen%2C+cege%2C+erhe.ob%2C+lmc%2C+supg%2C+ppco%2C+pphm&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18 month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.

Rockets that appear to be very close to monthly cycle lows are NGEN and PPHM. CEGE could bottom on Monday or Tuesday at 4ish, after filling it's downside gap at 4.31. ERHE and PPCO are in Wave 1 short term upcycles or could be early in Wave 2 down of monthly upcycles.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

..............TGIF And Some Useful Data/Info

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.73% versus SPX today/on 4-27, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.86% versus the XAU today/on 4-27, and, Weekly Fed Credit fell -$1.204 Billion in the 5 day period ending 4-25-07.

Dendreon's (DNDN) waiting on the FDA's May 15 deadline for its decision on Provenge, so, it obviously makes sense to wait for that decision before trading DNDN, unless you're very confident one way or the other about the FDA's decision, see http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/04/26/dendreon-is-worth-a-shot.aspx.

See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/04/avnr-entered-wave-5-short-term-upcycle.html.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

AVNR Entered A Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle Yesterday

AVNR entered a Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle yesterday, see the 5 day chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, and, see the 3 month chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c== (today's candle doesn't show up until tomorrow, weird/absurd).

Wave 3 peaked at 6.75, so, in Wave 5 AVNR is likely to fill the upside gap at 7.40 and peak at 7.75-8.00. My purchase at 4.17 last week is looking better, but, I should have realized that the move from 6.75 to 3.80ish was (likely to be) Wave A down of Wave 4. Despite that screwup I might still roughly double my money in a short term timeframe.

DNDN (the most notable) probably entered a new Cyclical Bull Market in late March after a 3 year Cyclical Bear Market. It made a huge bullish breakaway gap up from the 5 area on enormous volume, completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, is in the midst of Wave C of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. In the next few days to a week DNDN should complete the Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle and fill downside gaps at 14.65, 14.30, and 12.93, and bottom at 12.50ish.

CEGE is a similar situation (in the final Wave C), it should fill a downside gap at 4.31 in the next few days to a week and bottom at 4ish, with 3.50 probably being a bullish breakaway gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN will be the main focus for now of the "rocket trading" (hot stocks) discussion. All three recently appear to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market with a vengeance, hitting very strong buy signals due to great price/volume action, and, made huge bullish breakaway gaps to the upside, see their 3 month charts (scroll down to see CEGE and DNDN) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr%2C+cege%2C+dndn&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

AVNR, CEGE, And DNDN Cycles, Elliott Wave Count, And Gaps

AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN will be the main focus for now of the "rocket trading" (hot stocks) discussion. All three recently appear to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market with a vengeance, hitting very strong buy signals due to great price/volume action, and, made huge bullish breakaway gaps to the upside, see their 3 month charts (scroll down to see CEGE and DNDN) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr%2C+cege%2C+dndn&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

AVNR is doing a big Wave 4 short term downcycle after a huge Wave 3 up, and, the final Wave C of the big Wave 4 short term downcycle may have bottomed today at 3.17, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

DNDN (the most notable) probably entered a new Cyclical Bull Market in late March after a 3 year Cyclical Bear Market. It made a huge bullish breakaway gap up from the 5 area on enormous volume, completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, is in the midst of Wave C of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. In the next few days to a week DNDN should complete the Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle and fill downside gaps at 14.65, 14.30, and 12.93, and bottom at 12.50ish.

CEGE is a similar situation (in the final Wave C), it should fill a downside gap at 4.31 in the next few days to a week and bottom at 4ish, with 3.50 probably being a bullish breakaway gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

BQI Needs To Break It's Cyclical Bear Market Downtrend Line

BQI, a stock I mentioned yesterday, needs to break it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since May 2006, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=BQI&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. This is the first chart of BQI I've seen that goes back more than 8 months, I guess because it went from the OTC BB to the AMEX.

So, I didn't realize that it needed to establish a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low. It might have bottomed in March, but one has to wait for it to clearly break it's downtrend line since May 2006 (rise to 5+). BQI was a rocket in it's previous Cyclical Bull Market, rising over 2000% in less than a year. It'll probably be a rocket again after it breaks it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since May 2006.

AVNR, which I bought at 4.17 about a week ago (not on Monday that I said yesterday), so, I botched the entry point, but, should still roughly double my money in a very short time if the upside gap at 7.40 gets filled as expected (Wave 3 peaked at 6.75), might have hit a short term Wave 4 cycle low today at 3.17, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken, and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback). I'll be discussing that also.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

................Welcome To Rocket Trading

The focus of this blog is switching to timing red hot stocks (with decent/strong volume) from potentially any sector using "Trade the Cycles," what I call "rockets," from timing HUI/NEM/XAU, because, my trading focus is shifting to rockets.

At this point I feel that I'm beating HUI/NEM/XAU to death anyway. HUI should fall to it's primary multi year trendline at 200-220 and the XAU should fall to 85-90 in the next few months. See charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

It looks like the short term Wave A downcycle since intermediate term cycle highs occurred on 4-16-07 for HUI/XAU has more downside. HUI/XAU failed to break the Wave A downtrend line today, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.76% versus SPX today, and, became much more bearish toward session's end, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.04% versus the XAU today, and, became more bearish toward session's end.

I'll start the Rocket Trading discussion by discussing three rockets: AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN. If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

DNDN (the most notable) probably entered a new Cyclical Bull Market in late March after a 3 year Cyclical Bear Market. It made a huge bullish breakaway gap up from the 5 area on huge volume, completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, is in the midst of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. In the next week or two DNDN should complete the Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle and fill downside gaps at 14.65, 14.30, and 12.93, and bottom at 12.50ish.

CEGE is a similar situation, it should fill a downside gap at 4.31 and bottom at 4ish, with 3.50 probably being a bullish breakaway gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

AVNR is another similar story, except that it's doing a Wave 4 down (Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern) that might have bottomed today at 3.33, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Yahoo won't show today's candle until tomorrow, why I'd love to know. I'm expecting AVNR to fill an upside gap at 7.40 in Wave 5 (Wave 3 reached 6.75).

I bought a modest AVNR position in an IRA at 4.17 two days ago in the huge Wave A type move down, so, I botched the entry point, but, should still roughly double my money in a very short time if the upside gap at 7.40 gets filled as expected. Why I didn't realize that it was a likely Wave A type (fell off a cliff) move down I don't know. I was probably overeager (clouded my judgement maybe) after looking at the great charts of these stocks and the great buy signals they hit (price/volume action).

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal) and there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish). I'll be discussing that also. An example of waiting is BQI, it hit my 2.90-3.00 target for Wave 4 down, but, needs to break it's well established downtrend since early April, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bqi&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/XAU Short Term Wave A Appears To Be Bottoming

HUI/XAU's short term Wave A downcycle, since intermediate term cycle highs occurred on 4-16-07 (HUI's cycle began 10-4-06, XAU's cycle that began 10-4-06 peaked on 12-5-06), appears to be bottoming/might have bottomed late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. HUI/XAU became very flat in the last two hours of trading, and, flat action often points to a cycle low/high either having occurred or being imminent.

Also, the NEM Lead Indicator became progressively more bullish as the session progressed (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) and closed at a bullish +0.78% versus the XAU today. The WMT Lead Indicator turned bullish about two hours into the session (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), but, closed at a bearish -0.46% versus the S & P 500.

The XAU's cycle that began on 3-14-07 and peaked on 4-16-07 was a minor intermediate term upcycle. NEM's upcycle since 3-14-07 is really a minor intermediate term upcycle at this point. There isn't a big difference between a minor intermediate term upcycle and a monthly upcycle. A minor intermediate term upcycle is usually a one weekish Wave 5 short term upcycle "on top of" a complete monthly cycle (Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle plus ABC downcycle), in which a longer Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle is created (obviously) than the one that occurred in the monthly upcycle.

Thomson I Watch that was bullish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem), for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi), and, for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt).

The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish again in the 5 day period ending 4-17-07, especially on an intermediate term cycle (weeks/months) basis, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively net short, mostly by short selling, while the clueless (from a big picture standpoint especially) gold Speculators did the opposite, mostly by aggressively adding to their long position, as gold approaches a very important Wave B cycle high (might have occurred Friday) of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began at $730ish last May 2006.

Fed Credit for the 5 day period ending 4-18-07 rose a significant +$1.778 Billion, which points to a sharp rebound (very short term countertrend Wave B) in the 5 day period ending 4-25-07, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Mildly Likely," because, a 2% intermediate term cycle sell signal occurred yesterday/4-19, which indicates that the cycle peaked on Monday. The sharp -$2.823 Billion decline in the 5 day period ending 4-11-07 correctly pointed to some sustained significant weakness (late Monday through Wednesday 4-21) in the 5 day period ending 4-18-07.

Cycles indicate that a big decline is coming. HUI/XAU are 40-45% above their primary multi year trendlines (Secular Bull Market since late 2000), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. There's no way in hell that HUI's extremely anemic uptrend of recent months is bullish, it's actually extremely flat lengthy rollover action since 12-5-06's cycle high. There's no way in hell that the XAU's downtrend since 5-11-06 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000) is bullish. Actually, the XAU managed to put in a slightly higher bearish double top cycle high at 148.50 on Monday 4-16 versus the cycle high at 148.11 on 2-23-07. Big deal.

In the next week or two the XAU should fill downside gaps at 143.58 (filled), 133.31 and possibly also at 129.65, and, NEM should fill it's downside gaps at 43.57 (filled), 43.45 (filled), 43.34 (filled), 42.89, and at 41.44. The XAU should bottom at 133ish or 129ish and NEM should bottom at 42.50ish or 41ish, shortly after filling 42.89 and (big) maybe 41.44 (monthly cycle low at 40.53 occurred on 3-14-07).

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM has an upside gap at 47.06. NEM has downside gaps at 42.89 and 41.44, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 45%+ (from 4-16-07's intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/XAU Short Term Wave A Downcycle Is Still In Effect

An HUI/XAU short term Wave A downcycle is still in effect since Monday 4-16-07's intermediate term cycle highs for HUI (cycle began 10-4-06)/XAU (cycle that began 10-4-06 peaked on 12-5-06), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. A 2% intermediate term cycle sell signal occurred on Thursday 4-19-07.

The XAU's cycle that began on 3-14-07 and peaked on 4-16-07 was a minor intermediate term upcycle. NEM's upcycle since 3-14-07 is really a minor intermediate term upcycle at this point. There isn't a big difference between a minor intermediate term upcycle and a monthly upcycle. A minor intermediate term upcycle is usually a one weekish Wave 5 short term upcycle "on top of" a complete monthly cycle (Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle plus ABC downcycle), in which a longer Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle is created (obviously) than the one that occurred in the monthly upcycle.

All HUI/XAU managed today was to very briefly spike at the open and rise to the very short term Wave A downtrend lines, then resumed their downtrend since late Monday 4-16-07, when intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Reliable lead indicator WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 that it probably won't fill, because, it's cycle high today at 49.95 missed filling that upside gap by only 3 cents, and, WMT fell sharply after that, closing at 48.93 today.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% versus the XAU today/on 4-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The WMT Lead Indicator, was an extremely bearish -1.44% versus the S & P 500 today, and, became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Thomson I Watch that was somewhat bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem) and for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi), but, was bullish for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt).

The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish again in the 5 day period ending 4-17-07, especially on an intermediate term cycle (weeks/months) basis, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively net short, mostly by short selling, while the clueless (from a big picture standpoint especially) gold Speculators did the opposite, mostly by aggressively adding to their long position, as gold approaches a very important Wave B cycle high (might have occurred Friday) of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began at $730ish last May 2006.

Fed Credit for the 5 day period ending 4-18-07 rose a significant +$1.778 Billion, which points to a sharp rebound (very short term countertrend Wave B) in the 5 day period ending 4-25-07, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Mildly Likely," because, a 2% intermediate term cycle sell signal occurred yesterday/4-19, which indicates that the cycle peaked on Monday. The sharp -$2.823 Billion decline in the 5 day period ending 4-11-07 correctly pointed to some sustained significant weakness (late Monday through Wednesday 4-21) in the 5 day period ending 4-18-07.

Cycles indicate that a big decline is coming. HUI/XAU are 40-45% above their primary multi year trendlines (Secular Bull Market since late 2000), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. There's no way in hell that HUI's extremely anemic uptrend of recent months is bullish, it's actually extremely flat lengthy rollover action since 12-5-06's cycle high. There's no way in hell that the XAU's downtrend since 5-11-06 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000) is bullish. Actually, the XAU managed to put in a slightly higher bearish double top cycle high at 148.50 on Monday 4-16 versus the cycle high at 148.11 on 2-23-07. Big deal.

In the next week or two the XAU should fill downside gaps at 143.58 (filled), 133.31 and possibly also at 129.65, and, NEM should fill it's downside gaps at 43.57 (filled), 43.45 (filled), 43.34 (filled), 42.89, and at 41.44. The XAU should bottom at 133ish or 129ish and NEM should bottom at 42.50ish or 41ish, shortly after filling 42.89 and (big) maybe 41.44 (monthly cycle low at 40.53 occurred on 3-14-07).

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM has an upside gap at 47.06. NEM has downside gaps at 42.89 and 41.44, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 45%+ (from 4-16-07's intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

............More Bearish, Crappy, Anemic Action!

All HUI/XAU managed today was to very briefly spike at the open and rise to the very short term Wave A downtrend lines, then resumed their downtrend since late Monday, when intermediate term cycle highs occurred (2% sell signal occurred yesterday), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Reliable lead indicator NEM filled it's upside gap at 44.29 very early on, then resumed it's short term Wave 4 downcycle since Tuesday (monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07). Reliable lead indicator WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 that it's probably in the process of filling. It closed at 49.76.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.16% versus the XAU today/on 4-20, but, became less bullish/turned bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The WMT Lead Indicator, because WMT is spiking and filling (likely) it's upside gap at 49.98, was an "off the charts" bullish +2.01% versus the S & P 500 today, and, became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Looking at HUI's 5 day chart (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) it looks like it'll plunge early on Monday, because, it appeared to be on the early flat part of a downcycle at session's end, and, should "go parabolic" and plunge early on Monday.

The fact that HUI/XAU trended down nearly the entire session, despite a very bullish WMT Lead Indicator and an NEM Lead Indicator that was in plus territory most of the session, is a very bearish sign. This jives with a Thomson I Watch that was bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem), for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi), and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt).

Also, the COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish again this week, especially on an intermediate term cycle (weeks/months) basis, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively net short, mostly by short selling, while the clueless (from a big picture standpoint especially) gold Speculators did the opposite, mostly by aggressively adding to their long position, as gold approaches a very important Wave B cycle high (might have occurred today) of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began at $730ish last May 2006.

Fed Credit for the 5 day period ending 4-18-07 rose a significant +$1.778 Billion, which points to a sharp rebound (very short term countertrend Wave B) in the 5 day period ending 4-25-07, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Mildly Likely," because, a 2% intermediate term cycle sell signal occurred yesterday/4-19, which indicates that the cycle peaked on Monday. The sharp -$2.823 Billion decline in the 5 day period ending 4-11-07 correctly pointed to some sustained significant weakness (late Monday through Wednesday) in the 5 day period ending 4-18-07.

Cycles indicate that a big decline is coming. HUI/XAU are 45% above their primary multi year trendlines (Secular Bull Market since late 2000), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. There's no way in hell that HUI's extremely anemic uptrend of recent months is bullish, it's actually extremely flat lengthy rollover action since 12-5-06's cycle high. There's no way in hell that the XAU's downtrend since 5-11-06 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000) is bullish. Actually, the XAU managed to put in a slightly higher bearish double top cycle high at 148.50 on Monday 4-16 versus the cycle high at 148.11 on 2-23-07. Big deal.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders made an unusually large (> 10% increase in short position) short trade in the 5 day period ending 4-10-07 (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm), which correctly pointed to strength last week, and, correctly pointed to some this week as well. The clueless gold Speculators went massively long, probably near an important cycle high.

In the next week or two the XAU should fill downside gaps at 143.58 (filled), 133.31 and possibly also at 129.65, and, NEM should fill it's downside gaps at 43.57 (filled), 43.45 (filled), 43.34 (filled), 42.89, and at 41.44. The XAU should bottom at 133ish or 129ish and NEM should bottom at 42.50ish or 41ish, shortly after filling 42.89 and (big) maybe 41.44 (monthly cycle low at 40.53 occurred on 3-14-07).

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM has an upside gap at 47.06. NEM has downside gaps at 42.89 and 41.44, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 45%+ (from 4-16-07's likely intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

...........More Anemic HUI/NEM/XAU Action

Since Monday's likely HUI/XAU intermediate term cycle highs (2% sell signal occurred today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, HUI/XAU have plunged at each open, then staged anemic rallies, followed soon thereafter by a resumption of the downtrend (very short term Wave A). It's been very bearish sickly action, with today being by far the most severe.

However, the lead indicators were very bullish today, at +1.22% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at +0.89% versus the S & P 500 for the WMT Lead Indicator. They both became more bullish as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem for the NEM Lead Indicator, and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC for the WMT Lead Indicator. So, a sharp rebound may occur tomorrow, possibly after another plunge at the open. The fact that reliable lead indicator NEM didn't fill today's upside gap at 44.29 points to likely weakness early tomorrow.

Thomson I Watch was somewhat bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem), for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi), and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt).

NEM is in a Wave 4 short term downcycle of a monthly upcycle since 3-14-07 (cycle low at 40.53), and, filled it's upside gap at 45.10 on Monday.

Fed Credit for the 5 day period ending 4-18-07 rose a significant +$1.778 Billion, which points to a sharp rebound (very short term countertrend Wave B) in the 5 day period ending 4-25-07, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Mildly Likely," because, a 2% intermediate term cycle sell signal occurred today, which indicates that the cycle peaked on Monday. The sharp -$2.823 Billion decline in the 5 day period ending 4-11-07 correctly pointed to some sustained significant weakness (late Monday through Wednesday) in the 5 day period ending 4-18-07.

Cycles indicate that a big decline is coming. HUI/XAU are 45% above their primary multi year trendlines (Secular Bull Market since late 2000), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. There's no way in hell that HUI's extremely anemic uptrend of recent months is bullish, it's actually extremely flat lengthy rollover action since 12-5-06's cycle high. There's no way in hell that the XAU's downtrend since 5-11-06 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000) is bullish. Actually, the XAU managed to put in a slightly higher bearish double top cycle high at 148.50 on Monday 4-16 versus the cycle high at 148.11 on 2-23-07. Big deal.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders made an unusually large (> 10% increase in short position) short trade in the 5 day period ending 4-10-07 (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm), which correctly pointed to strength last week, and, correctly pointed to some this week as well. The clueless gold Speculators went massively long, probably near an important cycle high.

In the next week or two the XAU should fill downside gaps at 143.58 (filled today), 133.31 and possibly also at 129.65, and, NEM should fill it's downside gaps at 43.57 (filled), 43.45 (filled), 43.34 (filled today), 42.89, and at 41.44. The XAU should bottom at 133ish or 129ish and NEM should bottom at 42.50ish or 41ish, shortly after filling 42.89 and maybe 41.44 (monthly cycle low at 40.53 occurred on 3-14-07).

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM has upside gaps at 44.29 and 47.06. NEM has downside gaps at 42.89 and 41.44, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 45%+ (from 4-16-07's likely intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI's Intermediate Term Upcycle Since 10-4-06 Appears To Have Peaked On Monday At 369.69

HUI's Intermediate Term Upcycle since 10-4-06 appears to have peaked on Monday at 369.69, less than 2% (obviously bearish extremely anemic uptrend) above the nearly perfect bearish double top cycle highs at 362.53 on 12-5-06 and at 362.58 on 2-23-07, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

The XAU's Intermediate Term Upcycle since 10-4-06 probably peaked on 12-5-06 (more than four months ago) at 150ish. All the XAU managed to do was to put in a bearish double top at 148.50 on Monday with it's cycle high at 148.11 on 2-23-07.

I want to see more downside before I conclude that the cycle highs are in (one can draw a trendline since 3-14-07 and use a 2% follow through sell signal to conclude that the cycle highs are in), but, the fact that HUI/XAU had such an anemic bounce today, despite completing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since late Monday and yesterday's bullish NEM Lead Indicator (+0.57%), is probably a sign that the cycle highs are in. Also, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -2.41% vs SPX last week and I Watch has been bearish (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem).

The lead indicators were bearish today, at -0.53% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.49% versus the S & P 500 for the WMT Lead Indicator. They both became more bearish as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem for the NEM Lead Indicator, and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC for the WMT Lead Indicator.

Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem), for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi), and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt).

NEM is in a Wave 4 short term downcycle of a monthly upcycle since 3-14-07 (cycle low at 40.53), and, filled it's upside gap at 45.10 on Monday.

Cycles indicate that a big decline is coming. HUI/XAU are 45% above their primary multi year trendlines (Secular Bull Market since late 2000), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. There's no way in hell that HUI's super anemic uptrend of recent months is bullish, it's actually extremely flat lengthy rollover action since 12-5-06's cycle high. There's no way in hell that the XAU's downtrend since 5-11-06 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000) is bullish. Actually, the XAU managed to put in a slightly higher bearish double top cycle high at 148.50 on Monday 4-16 versus the cycle high at 148.11 on 2-23-07. Big deal.
The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders made an unusually large (> 10% increase in short position) short trade in the 5 day period ending 4-10-07 (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm), which correctly pointed to strength last week, and, correctly pointed to some this week as well. The clueless gold Speculators went massively long, probably near an important cycle high.

In the next week or two the XAU should fill downside gaps at 143.58, 133.31 and possibly also at 129.65, and, NEM should fill it's downside gaps at 43.57 (filled), 43.45 (filled), 43.34, 42.89, and at 41.44. The XAU should bottom at 133ish or 129ish and NEM should bottom at 42.50ish or 41ish, shortly after filling 42.89 and maybe 41.44 (monthly cycle low at 40.53 occurred on 3-14-07).

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM has an upside gap at 47.06. NEM has downside gaps at 43.34, 42.89 and 41.44, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 143,58, 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 45%+ (from 4-16-07's likely intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/XAU Intermediate Term Upcycle Might Not Have Peaked

HUI/XAU's Intermediate Term Upcycle (HUI since 10-4-06, XAU since 3-14-07) might not have peaked late yesterday (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), because, reliable lead indicator NEM made a higher short term Wave 3 cycle high today at 45.25, versus yesterday's cycle high at 45.11. NEM usually peaks ahead of HUI/XAU, so, HUI/XAU may take out yesterday's cycle highs tomorrow, which jives with a bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +0.57% versus the XAU today, and, with a neutral WMT Lead Indicator at +0.00% versus the S & P 500 today.

The NEM Lead Indicator became more bullish as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. HUI/XAU might experience early weakness tomorrow, since they were in Wave C of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle since late yesterday at session's end, that might have more downside early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.

Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem), for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi), and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt).

NEM is in or should soon enter a Wave 4 short term downcycle of a monthly upcycle since 3-14-07 (cycle low at 40.53), and, filled it's upside gap at 45.10 yesterday.

Cycles indicate that a big decline is coming. HUI/XAU are 45%+ above their primary multi year trendlines (Secular Bull Market since late 2000), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. There's no way in hell that HUI's super anemic uptrend of recent months is bullish, it's actually extremely flat lengthy rollover action since 12-5-06's cycle high. There's no way in hell that the XAU's downtrend since 5-11-06 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market since late 2000) is bullish. Actually, the XAU managed to put in a slightly higher bearish double top cycle high at 148.50 yesterday versus the cycle high at 148.11 on 2-23-07. Big deal.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders made an unusually large (> 10% increase in short position) short trade in the 5 day period ending 4-10-07 (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm), which correctly pointed to strength last week, and, correctly pointed to some this week as well. The clueless gold Speculators went massively long, probably near an important cycle high.

In the next week or two the XAU should fill downside gaps at 143.58, 133.31 and possibly also at 129.65, and, NEM should fill it's downside gaps at 43.57 (filled), 43.45 (filled), 43.34, 42.89, and at 41.44. The XAU should bottom at 133ish or 129ish and NEM should bottom at 42.50ish or 41ish, shortly after filling 42.89 and maybe 41.44 (monthly cycle low at 40.53 occurred on 3-14-07).

Fed Credit (fuels index fund program traders) for the 5 day period ending 4-11-07 fell a sharp -$2.823 Billion (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/), so, the Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Unlikely." The sharp drop in Fed Credit points to severe weakness for the 5 day period ending 4-18-07.

I bought XAU April 130 puts (XAVPF) on 3-28 at 1.20, and, I doubled up at 0.55 for an average cost/basis of 0.875, and, will look to exit in the next few days. I shorted GLD, the gold ETF, at 65.61 on 3-29, which will probably bottom at 63.50ish in the next few days, shortly after filling a downside gap at 63.98 (there are also downside gaps at 62.26 and 60.63). I sold all my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) at 0.50 versus a basis of 0.77.

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM has an upside gap at 47.06. NEM has downside gaps at 43.34, 42.89 and 41.44, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 143,58, 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 45%+ (from 4-16-07's potential intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU