The SPX (S & P 500) Countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle Appears To Have Peaked Late Today

The SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle since late yesterday 3-30-09 appears to have peaked late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which means that the upside gap at 815.94 from yesterday's open is probably a bearish breakaway gap, and, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) upside gap at 52.57 appears to also be a bearish breakaway gap.

So, a short term Wave 3 downcycle/very large move down probably began late today 3-31-09. Watch downside gaps at 790.88 from today 3-31's open, and, at 768.54, then 676.53.

Today's broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.65% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on 3-31.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a significant +1.76% rise in complacency/-1.76% decline in the wall of worry today 3-31, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +1.31% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -3.07%, which points to likely significant/maybe severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Wednesday 4-1-09.

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a large bearish spike shortly before session's end again today 3-31-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was extremely bullish at session's end today 3-31-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish indication.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish since 3-6-09, at -0.65% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

The SPX (S & P 500) inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle from very late on 3-26-09 to late yesterday 3-30-09 was a short term Wave 1 downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, that was probably the start of a Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle, which is Wave C down of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09.

In SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) daily chart one can see the Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle that bottomed yesterday 3-30, and, one can see the Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle since late yesterday 3-30-09, that probably peaked late today, note the medium bearish spike on today's candle.

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data reeks of countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle from 3-6-09 to 3-26-09 (countertrend Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09), see the major averages COT data that starts about two thirds of the way down (S & P 500 is the first set of data) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.

The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and other major averages Commercial Traders experienced a gigantic short squeeze, since they covered a massive amount of short futures, but, they also liquidated a massive amount of their long futures position, which strongly jives with the monthly upcycle from 3-6-09 to 3-26-09 being countertrend action. Why would they liquidate a massive amount of their long futures position, if they believed that a new bull market had begun?

Given that it's very unlikely that the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07 bottomed on 3-6-09, then, the upcycle from 3-6-09 to 3-26-09 basically HAS to be countertrend action.

Late today I entered a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position at 20.70 (21.20 after hours) in an IRA.

My strategy this week will be to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or some other ultra short ETF (like FAZ maybe), overnight trade a substantial ultra short position, and, I'll also overnight trade a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position in an IRA. For the overnight trades I'll be careful to wait for a very large Wave A down type move to occur first (in progress), then I'll look to go long QID/FAZ shortly after a countertrend Wave B type upcycle peaks.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12 (filled 3-25), 52.57, and 55.54, and, has a bullish breakaway downside gap at 51.68 from 3-26-09's open (filled 3-30-09).

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (created 3-30-09), 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a downside gap at 813.88 from 3-26's open (filled 3-30-09), one at 790.88 from 3-31-09's open, one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, one at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

The XAU is doing Wave 4 down of a big short term Wave 3 upcycle, of the monster Wave 5 rollover monthly upcycle (of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) since early March, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI are doing a short term Wave 4 downcycle.

The slightly lower XAU cycle high in mid March, versus the one in early March, is probably Wave 1 up of a big short term Wave 3 upcycle, note that it's slightly lower than the short term Wave 1 cycle high in early March.

This GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 4 down move since 3-26-09 is correcting the huge spike move that began after the FOMC on 3-18-09, so, this weakness makes perfect sense. As I've said before, the next week or two should be very interesting on the upside.

The monster spike move on 3-18-09, following the huge $1 Trillion Fed action announced after the FOMC, was a short term breakout.

Also, the reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since the 3-18-09 GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) short term breakout, at -1.62% versus the XAU today/on 3-31, +0.87% on 3-30, +0.38% on 3-27, +1.54% on 3-26, +1.43% on 3-25, +0.07% on 3-24, +0.00% on 3-23, +3.26% on 3-20, +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18.

Also, one must factor in the fact that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since Tuesday 3-24-09, at -0.65% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, and, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at extremely bullish today 3-31-09 (+2.00% or more versus the S & P 500), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data continues to jive with a short term bullish and an intermediate term bearish scenario, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded a respectable long gold futures and options position in the five day period ending 3-24-09, while adding even more short gold futures and options, in anticipation of a substantial correction/intermediate term downcycle.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.34 (filled 3-18), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal nine weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.04% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 3-31, it was +1.96% on 3-30, it was +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2, -1.89% on 2-27, -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Is Doing A Countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is doing a countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. The inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle from very late on 3-26-09 to late yesterday 3-30-09 was a short term Wave 1 downcycle.

The SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since late yesterday 3-30-09 is a short term Wave 2 upcycle, in which it should fail to fill yesterday's upside gap at 815.94, making it a bearish breakaway gap. So, a short term Wave 3 downcycle/very large move down should soon begin.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX (S & P 500) Is In A Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle

SPX (S & P 500) is probably in a Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle (since 3-26-09) of a Wave A Monthly Downcycle, of the Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09, of the Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The monster countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 3-6-09 (Wave B up of the Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) probably peaked on 3-26-09, for reasons discussed below.

SPX (S & P 500) created a likely bearish breakaway upside gap at 815.94 at today 3-30's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) did so at 52.57, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a large bearish spike shortly before session's end today 3-30-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, SPX (S & P 500) should fail to fill today's upside gap at 815.94 early tomorrow, and, will probably fill it's downside gap at 768.54 tomorrow. If 815.94 doesn't get filled/is a bearish breakaway gap, that'll be an obvious sign to enter an overnight short/ultra short trade and/or a day trade.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was extremely bullish at session's end today 3-30-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish indication.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed near extremely bullish territory (+2.00% versus SPX (S & P 500) or greater) today 3-30-09, at +1.94% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-30, which probably jives with SPX (S & P 500) failing to the fill today's upside gap at 815.94 early tomorrow, then probably filling the downside gap at 768.54.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish since 3-6-09, at +1.67% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced an unusually large +7.48% rise in fear/+7.48% rise in the wall of worry today 3-30, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -3.48% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +10.96%, which points to likely significant/maybe severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness on Tuesday 3-31-09, after likely early strength.

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data reeks of countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle from 3-6-09 to 3-26-09 (countertrend Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09), see the major averages COT data that starts about two thirds of the way down (S & P 500 is the first set of data) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.

The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and other major averages Commercial Traders experienced a gigantic short squeeze, since they covered a massive amount of short futures, but, they also liquidated a massive amount of their long futures position, which strongly jives with the monthly upcycle from 3-6-09 to 3-26-09 being countertrend action. Why would they liquidate a massive amount of their long futures position, if they believed that a new bull market had begun?

Given that it's very unlikely that the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07 bottomed on 3-6-09, then, the upcycle from 3-6-09 to 3-26-09 basically HAS to be countertrend action.

My strategy this week will be to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or some other ultra short ETF (like FAZ maybe), overnight trade a substantial ultra short position, and, I'll also overnight trade a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position in an IRA. For the overnight trades I'll be careful to wait for a very large Wave A down type move to occur first (in progress), then I'll look to go long QID/FAZ shortly after a countertrend Wave B type upcycle peaks.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12 (filled 3-25), 52.57, and 55.54, and, has a bullish breakaway downside gap at 51.68 from 3-26-09's open (filled 3-30-09).

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (created 3-30-09), 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a downside gap at 813.88 from 3-26's open (filled 3-30-09), one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, one at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

The XAU is doing Wave 4 down of a big short term Wave 3 upcycle, of the monster Wave 5 rollover monthly upcycle (of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) since early March, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI are doing a short term Wave 4 downcycle.

The monster spike move on 3-18-09, following the huge $1 Trillion Fed action announced after the FOMC, was a short term breakout.

Also, the reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since the 3-18-09 GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) short term breakout, at +0.87% versus the XAU today/on 3-30, +0.38% on 3-27, +1.54% on 3-26, +1.43% on 3-25, +0.07% on 3-24, +0.00% on 3-23, +3.26% on 3-20, +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18. So, the next week or two should be very interesting.

Also, one must factor in the fact that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since Tuesday 3-24-09, at +1.94% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, and, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at extremely bullish today 3-30-09 (+2.00% or more versus the S & P 500), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data continues to jive with a short term bullish and an intermediate term bearish scenario, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded a respectable long gold futures and options position in the five day period ending 3-24-09, while adding even more short gold futures and options, in anticipation of a substantial correction/intermediate term downcycle.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.34 (filled 3-18), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal nine weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.96% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 3-30, it was +1.27% on 3-27, it was +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2, -1.89% on 2-27, -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The S & P 500 COT Data Reeks Of Countertrend Monthly Upcycle Since 3-6-09

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data reeks of countertrend Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09), see the major averages COT data that starts about two thirds of the way down (S & P 500 is the first set of data) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.

The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and other major averages Commercial Traders experienced a gigantic short squeeze, since they covered a massive amount of short futures, but, they also liquidated a massive amount of their long futures position, which strongly jives with the monthly upcycle since 3-6-09 being countertrend action. Why would they liquidate a massive amount of their long futures position, if they believed that a new bull market had begun?

Given that it's very unlikely that the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07 bottomed on 3-6-09, then, the upcycle since 3-6-09 basically HAS to be countertrend action.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

GDX/HUI/XAU Are Doing Wave 4 Down Of A Big Wave 3 Upcycle

GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave 4 down of a big short term Wave 3 upcycle, of the monster Wave 5 rollover monthly upcycle (of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) since early March, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.

I've been thinking/suspecting this for a few days, but, now it's obvious. This is a big change (from a short term perspective, I wouldn't chase this monster rally as a long term investor) from being in Wave 5 peaking obviously, but, one has to be conservative (professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward).

The monster spike move on 3-18-09, following the huge $1 Trillion (might have been $1.2 Trillion, whatever, the point is that it was huge and the gold/silver sector broke out short term) Fed action announced after the FOMC, was a short term breakout.

Also, the reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since the 3-18-09 GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) short term breakout, at +0.38% versus the XAU today/on 3-27, +1.54% on 3-26, +1.43% on 3-25, +0.07% on 3-24, +0.00% on 3-23, +3.26% on 3-20, +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18. So, the next week or two should be very interesting.

Also, one must factor in the fact that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since Tuesday, at +1.67% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, and, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at very bullish today 3-27-09 (from +1.00% to +1.99% versus the S & P 500), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data continues to jive with a short term bullish and an intermediate term bearish scenario, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded a respectable long gold futures and options position in the five day period ending 3-24-09, while adding even more short gold futures and options, in anticipation of a substantial correction/intermediate term downcycle.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

I Got Verizon FIOS Internet/TV/Phone Bundle Installed Today

I got Verizon FIOS Internet/TV/Phone bundle installed today. Stay tuned.

I can say that SPX (S & P 500) was doing Wave 5 down at session's end today 3-27-09, of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle that began shortly before yesterday's close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, should fill yesterday's downside gap at 813.88 early on Monday 3-30-09.

Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) looks like it'll probably fill it's downside gap at 51.68 on Monday (likely severe market weakness early on Monday based on a quick glance/what I know right now), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, maybe the SPX (S & P 500) monster countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 peaked yesterday, though it doesn't look like it from looking at the daily candlestick chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) has a perfect bearish double top at 53 yesterday and today 3-27-09 on the daily candlestick chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The intraday chart has a lot of cycle highs at about the same level yesterday and today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

That's it for now.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX (S & P 500) Filled The Upside Gap At 826.84 Today

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled the upside gap at 826.84 today, which means that the monster countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 (Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09) should soon peak, since that was the last of a series of upside gaps that were likely to get filled got filled (at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 869.89, and 934.70), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. However, watch 869.89 obviously.

In the daily SPX (S & P 500) chart one can see that SPX is doing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B upcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with bearish spikes on 3-9's and 3-16's candles, corresponding to Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs, of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09.

Since 3-17-09, when Wave 4 down of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 bottomed, SPX (S & P 500) has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with Wave 5 up probably peaking tomorrow 3-27-09.

SPX's (S & P 500) stochastics (93.59, 91.61) and Williams %R (-0.07, out of a 0 to -100 range, with 0 being the most overbought) are extremely/super overbought now.

The more SPX (S & P 500) defies gravity, and, the fact that the downcycles since 3-6-09 have been so brief and relatively modest (compared to the upcycles), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, jives well with the upcycle since 3-6-09 being the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09. The move since 3-6-09 is a huge spike move, that looks much more like important peaking action (which jives with countertrend Wave B action) than a Wave 1 type move.

The indicators and the fact that SPX's (S & P 500) upcycle since late yesterday 3-25 is rolling over (the Wave 1 spike move peaked just after the open, Wave 3 peaked about 2/3 into the session) point to potentially severe weakness early tomorrow, after likely very early strength (Wave 5 up of the upcycle since late yesterday very early on), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Also, SPX (S & P 500) has only gained a little over 1% the past three days versus Monday's cycle high, so, the monster upcycle since late Friday 3-20-09 is rolling over dramatically since Monday.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was modestly bearish at session's end today 3-26-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.14% rise in complacency/-2.14% decline in the wall of worry today 3-26, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +2.33% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -4.47%, which points to likely significant/maybe severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Friday 3-27-09, after likely early strength.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only slightly bearish today, closing at -0.24% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-26, but, it's super bearish recently, at +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

SPX's (S & P 500) Elliott Wave count is that SPX (S & P 500) is probably about to (once the Wave B move since 3-6-09 peaks) enter a Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

There might be a good shorting opportunity some time in the next week or less. I'm looking at trading FAZ (3x Finance Bear), which has an upside gap from Monday's open at 35, versus a close today at 18.80. This means that one might be able to make about 75% or more on FAZ in a day or two, if one buys it at 20ish and sells it at 35ish. This is why so many people are trading FAZ. Today's volume was a staggering 88.6 million shares!

The recent S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data jives with a very large move down occurring in the near future. See the SPX COT data about two thirds of the way down (or do edit find S & P 500 in your browser) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.

The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders anticipated the countertrend Wave B monster rise since 3-6-09, adding a massive 26,118 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, and, they added 31,172 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09.

But, they added a massive 35,332 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09, and, they added 3,696 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, in anticipation of a very large downcycle.

3-18's first post discusses the new Elliott Wave count, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/03/different-but-equivalent-spx-s-p-500.html.

One can basically prove that SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is very likely countertrend action, from WMT's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, since WMT is putting in an important countertrend Wave B type cycle high now.

Also, SPX's action since 3-6-09 has countertrend (and important peaking action) written all over it, due to a great deal of very large spiking action. In one session SPX (S & P 500) rose more than 6%, and, on 3-23-09 SPX rose a massive "supa dupa" +7.08%.

My strategy this week will be to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or some other ultra short ETF (like FAZ maybe), overnight trade a substantial QID (UltraShort QQQ (NDX basically) ProShares) position, and, I'll also overnight trade a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position in an IRA. For the overnight trades I'll be careful to wait for a very large Wave A down type move to occur first, then I'll look to go long QID/FAZ shortly after a countertrend Wave B type upcycle peaks.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The size of the SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is a clear sign that it is probably a countertrend upcycle and not a Wave 1 type upcycle/start of an important upcycle. This type of huge short term rise is the kind of substantial spiking action that occurs near important cycle highs, not very early in important upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 813.88 from 3-26's open, one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open, which one should watch, because, one might want to exit a (day trade and maybe also overnight timeframe short positions) short position shortly after a downside gap gets filled.

If one looks at the second Weekly View chart (at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) one can see that SPX (S & P 500) probably didn't bottom yet/on 3-6-09 (the huge spike move since 3-6-09 is probably a countertrend Wave B upcycle), because, the inverse spike three weeks ago is too small/not bullish enough, and, the candle is red/bearish, indicating a weekly close below the weekly open.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12 (filled 3-25), and 55.54, and, has a bullish breakaway downside gap at 51.68 from 3-26-09's open. SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a downside gap at 813.88 from 3-26's open, one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, one at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

GDX/HUI/XAU are in Wave 5 up of the huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.54% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, and, it was a very bullish +1.43% on 3-25. The huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) might peak tomorrow.

The extremely bullish five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator suggests that when Wave 5 peaks (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), as one would expect, there should be a very large spike move (in progress), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the 2-17-09 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, due to the Fed's huge additional action announced last week, that led to an enormous spike/short term breakout on 3-18-09, right after the announcement was made.

A good entry point for long term investors will arise AFTER a 3 to 6 week Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle/correction occurs. Be patient and wise, and, ignore the noise! Cycles rule.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold (probably not now, GLD will probably peak in dramatic rollover mode, along with GDX/HUI/XAU) put in a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high on 2-20-09, lagging GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM as they tend to do.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, is not a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), but, NEM might peak tomorrow or monday.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.54% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, it was a very bullish +1.43% on 3-25, it was +0.07% on 3-24, it was +0.00% on 3-23, it was an extremely bullish +3.26% on 3-20, it was a very bullish +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18, -0.77% on 3-17, -1.76% on 3-16, +1.13% on 3-13, -1.43% on 3-12, -0.78% on 3-11, it was an extremely bearish -2.51% on 3-10, which correctly was a very short term bullish indication, +0.55% on 3-9, it was a super bearish -4.07% on 3-6, -0.84% on 3-5, +0.21% on 3-4, -0.95% on 3-3, it was a very bearish -1.38% on 3-2, it was an extremely bullish +2.97% on 2-27, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication, -0.07% on 2-26, +0.64% on 2-25, +1.98% on 2-24, +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17.

The bullish short term and bearish minor intermediate term scenario jives with the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past eight weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for four straight weeks prior to the last four weeks, when they traded a significant long position, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The past four weeks the savvy gold Commercial Traders took some profits on their huge short trade, and, they traded a significant long position. These guys know what they're doing.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.34 (filled 3-18), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eight weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.70% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 3-26, it was +0.04% on 3-25, it was +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2, -1.89% on 2-27, -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The S & P 500 (SPX) Huge Wave 5 Rollover Spike Move Is Peaking In Dramatic Rollover Mode

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge Wave 5 rollover spike move since late on Friday 3-20-09 (rollover Wave 5 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09) is peaking in dramatic rollover mode (bearish triple top today 3-25 at 826.78, versus 823.65 yesterday and 3-23's 823.37 cycle high), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that the monster countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 (Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09) might have finally peaked today, or, might do so after flling the upside gap at 826.84.

The fact that the S & P 500 (SPX) came so close to filling the upside gap at 826.84 today, but failed, might mean that SPX has finally peaked. Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) filled the upside gap at 52.12 today.

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) might have been doing (was doing if SPX peaked today) a countertrend Wave B up move at session's end today 3-25-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. If so, then SPX (S & P 500) and other indices should try to fill their downside gaps from Monday 3-23's open (SPX downside gap at 768.54) in the next day or two.

So, there might be a good shorting opportunity the next day or two. I'm looking at trading FAZ (3x Finance Bear), which has an upside gap from Monday's open at 35, versus a close today at 19.46. This means that one might be able to make about 75% on FAZ in the next day or two!, if one buys it at 20ish and sells it at 35ish. This is why so many people are trading FAZ. Today's volume was a staggering 106.7 million shares!

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was extremely bullish at session's end today 3-25-09, which points to early SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, because, it's a very short term bearish indication.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a significant +0.63% rise in complacency/-0.63% decline in the wall of worry today 3-25, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +0.95% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -1.58%, which points to likely significant SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Thursday 3-26-09.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only slightly bullish today, closing at +0.22% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-25, and, it's super bearish recently, at +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6

SPX's (S & P 500) Elliott Wave count is that SPX (S & P 500) is probably about to (or did today, if the Wave B move since 3-6-09 peaked) enter a Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The recent S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data jives with a very large move down occurring in the near future. See the SPX COT data about two thirds of the way down (or do edit find S & P 500 in your browser) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.

The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders anticipated the countertrend Wave B monster rise since 3-6-09, adding a massive 26,118 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, and, they added 31,172 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09.

But, they added a massive 35,332 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09, and, they added 3,696 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, in anticipation of a very large downcycle.

3-18's first post discusses the new Elliott Wave count, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/03/different-but-equivalent-spx-s-p-500.html.

One can basically prove that SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is very likely countertrend action, from WMT's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, since WMT is putting in an important countertrend Wave B type cycle high now.

Another very strong sign that SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is very likely countertrend action is that NDX's (NASDAQ 100) upcycle since 3-9-09 is clearly countertrend action, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, since NDX (NASDAQ 100) did a huge Wave A down move until 3-9-09, after peaking and putting in a slightly higher near perfect bearish double top in February 2009 versus early January 2009's cycle high.

Also, SPX's action since 3-6-09 has countertrend (and important peaking action) written all over it, due to a great deal of very large spiking action. In one session SPX (S & P 500) rose more than 6%, and, on 3-23-09 SPX rose a massive "supa dupa" +7.08%.

My strategy this week will be to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or some other ultra short ETF (like FAZ maybe), overnight trade a substantial QID (UltraShort QQQ (NDX basically) ProShares) position, and, I'll also overnight trade a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position in an IRA. For the overnight trades I'll be careful to wait for a very large Wave A down type move to occur first, then I'll look to go long QID/FAZ shortly after a countertrend Wave B type upcycle peaks.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

In the daily SPX (S & P 500) chart one can see that SPX is doing/did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B upcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with bearish spikes on 3-9's and 3-16's candles, corresponding to Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs, of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09. Wave 5 probably peaked today 3-25-09, or, will do so tomorrow.

The size of the SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is a clear sign that it is probably a countertrend upcycle and not a Wave 1 type upcycle/start of an important upcycle. This type of huge short term rise is the kind of substantial spiking action that occurs near important cycle highs, not very early in important upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open, which one should watch, because, one might want to exit a (day trade and maybe also overnight timeframe short positions) short position shortly after a downside gap gets filled.

If one looks at the second Weekly View chart (at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) one can see that SPX (S & P 500) probably didn't bottom yet/on 3-6-09 (the huge spike move since 3-6-09 is probably a countertrend Wave B upcycle), because, the inverse spike three weeks ago is too small/not bullish enough, and, the candle is red/bearish, indicating a weekly close below the weekly open.

A good short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12 (filled 3-25), and 55.54. SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a downside gap 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, one at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave 5 up of the huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.43% versus the XAU today/on 3-25. The huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) might peak tomorrow.

The extremely bullish five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator suggests that when Wave 5 peaks (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), as one would expect, there should be a very large spike move (in progress), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the 2-17-09 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, due to the Fed's huge additional action announced last week, that led to an enormous spike/short term breakout on 3-18-09, right after the announcement was made.

A good entry point for long term investors will arise AFTER a 3 to 6 week Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle/correction occurs. Be patient and wise, and, ignore the noise! Cycles rule.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold (probably not now, GLD will probably peak in dramatic rollover mode, along with GDX/HUI/XAU) put in a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high on 2-20-09, lagging GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM as they tend to do.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, is not a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), but, NEM may peak tomorrow or Friday.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.43% versus the XAU today/on 3-25, it was +0.07% on 3-24, it was +0.00% on 3-23, it was an extremely bullish +3.26% on 3-20, it was a very bullish +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18, -0.77% on 3-17, -1.76% on 3-16, +1.13% on 3-13, -1.43% on 3-12, -0.78% on 3-11, it was an extremely bearish -2.51% on 3-10, which correctly was a very short term bullish indication, +0.55% on 3-9, it was a super bearish -4.07% on 3-6, -0.84% on 3-5, +0.21% on 3-4, -0.95% on 3-3, it was a very bearish -1.38% on 3-2, it was an extremely bullish +2.97% on 2-27, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication, -0.07% on 2-26, +0.64% on 2-25, +1.98% on 2-24, +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17.

The bullish short term and bearish minor intermediate term scenario jives with the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past eight weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for four straight weeks prior to the last four weeks, when they traded a significant long position, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The past four weeks the savvy gold Commercial Traders took some profits on their huge short trade, and, they traded a significant long position. These guys know what they're doing.

GDX created an upside gap at 37.71 yesterday (filled 3-25), and, NEM created one at 44.67 (filled 3-25). GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.34 (filled 3-18), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eight weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.04% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 3-25, it was +0.82% on 3-24, it was -0.15% on 3-23, it was +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2, -1.89% on 2-27, -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The S & P 500 (SPX) Huge Wave 5 Rollover Spike Move Appears To Have Peaked

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge Wave 5 rollover spike move since late on Friday 3-20-09 (rollover Wave 5 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09) appears to have peaked at 823.65 today (near perfect bearish double top with yesterday 3-23's 823.37 cycle high), about two thirds of the way into the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that the monster countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 (Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09) has probably peaked.

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) was probably doing a big Wave 3 down of a Wave A down move at session's end today 3-24-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Today's very bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, which was +1.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-24, points to a sharp countertrend Wave B upcycle tomorrow 3-25-09 (opportunity to go short, if you're looking to do so, I don't make recommendations), once the Wave A down move that began late today bottoms.

A likely scenario is that SPX (S & P 500) will try to fill yesterday 3-23's downside gap at 768.54 tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which jives with the very bearish five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (see next paragraph), and, jives with the sharp rise in complacency today, since VIX fell -0.69% versus SPX falling -2.01%, which is a sharp +2.70% rise in complacency/-2.70% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was very bearish at session's end today 3-24-09, which points to early potentially severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) appears to have entered an intraday/very short term Wave 3 type downcycle late today 3-24, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note that Walmart (WMT) led SPX (S & P 500) today, peaking shortly after the open, versus SPX (S & P 500) doing so much later in the session.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish
+1.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-24, but, is super bearish recently, at -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

The recent S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data jives with a very large move down occurring in the near future. See the SPX COT data about two thirds of the way down (or do edit find S & P 500 in your browser) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.

The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders anticipated the countertrend Wave B monster rise since 3-6-09, adding a massive 26,118 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, and, they added 31,172 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09.

But, they added a massive 35,332 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09, and, they added 3,696 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, in anticipation of a very large downcycle.

3-18's first post discusses the new Elliott Wave count, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/03/different-but-equivalent-spx-s-p-500.html.

One can basically prove that SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is very likely countertrend action, from WMT's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, since WMT is putting in an important countertrend Wave B type cycle high now.

Another very strong sign that SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is very likely countertrend action is that NDX's (NASDAQ 100) upcycle since 3-9-09 is clearly countertrend action, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, since NDX (NASDAQ 100) did a huge Wave A down move until 3-9-09, after peaking and putting in a slightly higher near perfect bearish double top in February 2009 versus early January 2009's cycle high.

Also, SPX's action since 3-6-09 has countertrend (and important peaking action) written all over it, due to a great deal of very large spiking action. In one session SPX (S & P 500) rose more than 6%, and, yesterday 3-23-09 SPX rose a massive "supa dupa" +7.08%.

My strategy this week will be to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or some other ultra short ETF (like FAZ maybe), overnight trade a substantial QID (UltraShort QQQ (NDX basically) ProShares) position, and, I'll also overnight trade a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position in an IRA. For the overnight trades I'll be careful to wait for a very large Wave A down type move to occur first, then I'll look to go long QID/FAZ shortly after a countertrend Wave B type upcycle peaks.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

In the daily SPX (S & P 500) chart one can see that SPX is doing/did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B upcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with bearish spikes on 3-9's and 3-16's candles, corresponding to Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs, of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09. Wave 5 probably peaked late today 3-24-09.

The size of the SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is a clear sign that it is probably a countertrend upcycle and not a Wave 1 type upcycle/start of an important upcycle. This type of huge short term rise is the kind of substantial spiking action that occurs near important cycle highs, not very early in important upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open, which one should watch, because, one might want to exit a (day trade and maybe also overnight timeframe short positions) short position shortly after a downside gap gets filled.

If one looks at the second Weekly View chart (at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) one can see that SPX (S & P 500) probably didn't bottom yet/on 3-6-09 (the huge spike move since 3-6-09 is probably a countertrend Wave B upcycle), because, the inverse spike three weeks ago is too small/not bullish enough, and, the candle is red/bearish, indicating a weekly close below the weekly open.

A good short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12, and 55.54. SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a downside gap 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, one at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

GDX/HUI/XAU have entered Wave 4 down of the huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The extremely bullish five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator suggests that when Wave 5 peaks (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), as one would expect, there should be a very large spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the 2-17-09 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, due to the Fed's huge additional action announced last week, that led to an enormous spike/short term breakout on 3-18-09, right after the announcement was made, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

A good entry point for long term investors will arise AFTER a 3 to 6 week Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle/correction occurs. Be patient and wise, and, ignore the noise! Cycles rule.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold (probably not now, GLD will probably peak in dramatic rollover mode, along with GDX/HUI/XAU) put in a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high on 2-20-09, lagging GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM as they tend to do.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, is (probably not now, NEM will probably peak in dramatic rollover mode, along with GDX/HUI/XAU) a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), and, the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaked at 45 on 2-20-09.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.07% versus the XAU today/on 3-24, it was +0.00% on 3-23, it was an extremely bullish +3.26% on 3-20, it was a very bullish +1.39% on 3-19, it was +0.89% on 3-18, -0.77% on 3-17, it was -1.76% on 3-16, it was +1.13% on 3-13, -1.43% on 3-12, -0.78% on 3-11, it was an extremely bearish -2.51% on 3-10, which correctly was a very short term bullish indication, +0.55% on 3-9, it was a super bearish -4.07% on 3-6, -0.84% on 3-5, +0.21% on 3-4, -0.95% on 3-3, it was a very bearish -1.38% on 3-2, it was an extremely bullish +2.97% on 2-27, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication, -0.07% on 2-26, +0.64% on 2-25, +1.98% on 2-24, +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17.

The bullish short term and bearish minor intermediate term scenario jives with the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past eight weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for four straight weeks prior to the last four weeks, when they traded a significant long position, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The past four weeks the savvy gold Commercial Traders took some profits on their huge short trade, and, they traded a significant long position. These guys know what they're doing.

GDX created an upside gap at 37.71 today, and, NEM created one at 44.67. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.34 (filled 3-18), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eight weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.82% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 3-24, it was -0.15% on 3-23, it was +0.13% on 3-20, it was -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2, -1.89% on 2-27, -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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