SPX (S & P 500) Filled The Upside Gap At 826.84 Today
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled the upside gap at 826.84 today, which means that the monster countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 (Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09) should soon peak, since that was the last of a series of upside gaps that were likely to get filled got filled (at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 869.89, and 934.70), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. However, watch 869.89 obviously.
In the daily SPX (S & P 500) chart one can see that SPX is doing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B upcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with bearish spikes on 3-9's and 3-16's candles, corresponding to Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs, of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09.
Since 3-17-09, when Wave 4 down of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 bottomed, SPX (S & P 500) has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with Wave 5 up probably peaking tomorrow 3-27-09.
SPX's (S & P 500) stochastics (93.59, 91.61) and Williams %R (-0.07, out of a 0 to -100 range, with 0 being the most overbought) are extremely/super overbought now.
The more SPX (S & P 500) defies gravity, and, the fact that the downcycles since 3-6-09 have been so brief and relatively modest (compared to the upcycles), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, jives well with the upcycle since 3-6-09 being the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09. The move since 3-6-09 is a huge spike move, that looks much more like important peaking action (which jives with countertrend Wave B action) than a Wave 1 type move.
The indicators and the fact that SPX's (S & P 500) upcycle since late yesterday 3-25 is rolling over (the Wave 1 spike move peaked just after the open, Wave 3 peaked about 2/3 into the session) point to potentially severe weakness early tomorrow, after likely very early strength (Wave 5 up of the upcycle since late yesterday very early on), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Also, SPX (S & P 500) has only gained a little over 1% the past three days versus Monday's cycle high, so, the monster upcycle since late Friday 3-20-09 is rolling over dramatically since Monday.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was modestly bearish at session's end today 3-26-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.14% rise in complacency/-2.14% decline in the wall of worry today 3-26, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +2.33% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -4.47%, which points to likely significant/maybe severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Friday 3-27-09, after likely early strength.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only slightly bearish today, closing at -0.24% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-26, but, it's super bearish recently, at +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
SPX's (S & P 500) Elliott Wave count is that SPX (S & P 500) is probably about to (once the Wave B move since 3-6-09 peaks) enter a Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
There might be a good shorting opportunity some time in the next week or less. I'm looking at trading FAZ (3x Finance Bear), which has an upside gap from Monday's open at 35, versus a close today at 18.80. This means that one might be able to make about 75% or more on FAZ in a day or two, if one buys it at 20ish and sells it at 35ish. This is why so many people are trading FAZ. Today's volume was a staggering 88.6 million shares!
The recent S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data jives with a very large move down occurring in the near future. See the SPX COT data about two thirds of the way down (or do edit find S & P 500 in your browser) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.
The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders anticipated the countertrend Wave B monster rise since 3-6-09, adding a massive 26,118 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, and, they added 31,172 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09.
But, they added a massive 35,332 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09, and, they added 3,696 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, in anticipation of a very large downcycle.
3-18's first post discusses the new Elliott Wave count, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/03/different-but-equivalent-spx-s-p-500.html.
One can basically prove that SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is very likely countertrend action, from WMT's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, since WMT is putting in an important countertrend Wave B type cycle high now.
Also, SPX's action since 3-6-09 has countertrend (and important peaking action) written all over it, due to a great deal of very large spiking action. In one session SPX (S & P 500) rose more than 6%, and, on 3-23-09 SPX rose a massive "supa dupa" +7.08%.
My strategy this week will be to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or some other ultra short ETF (like FAZ maybe), overnight trade a substantial QID (UltraShort QQQ (NDX basically) ProShares) position, and, I'll also overnight trade a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position in an IRA. For the overnight trades I'll be careful to wait for a very large Wave A down type move to occur first, then I'll look to go long QID/FAZ shortly after a countertrend Wave B type upcycle peaks.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The size of the SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is a clear sign that it is probably a countertrend upcycle and not a Wave 1 type upcycle/start of an important upcycle. This type of huge short term rise is the kind of substantial spiking action that occurs near important cycle highs, not very early in important upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 813.88 from 3-26's open, one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open, which one should watch, because, one might want to exit a (day trade and maybe also overnight timeframe short positions) short position shortly after a downside gap gets filled.
If one looks at the second Weekly View chart (at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) one can see that SPX (S & P 500) probably didn't bottom yet/on 3-6-09 (the huge spike move since 3-6-09 is probably a countertrend Wave B upcycle), because, the inverse spike three weeks ago is too small/not bullish enough, and, the candle is red/bearish, indicating a weekly close below the weekly open.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12 (filled 3-25), and 55.54, and, has a bullish breakaway downside gap at 51.68 from 3-26-09's open. SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a downside gap at 813.88 from 3-26's open, one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, one at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
GDX/HUI/XAU are in Wave 5 up of the huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.54% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, and, it was a very bullish +1.43% on 3-25. The huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) might peak tomorrow.
The extremely bullish five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator suggests that when Wave 5 peaks (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), as one would expect, there should be a very large spike move (in progress), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the 2-17-09 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, due to the Fed's huge additional action announced last week, that led to an enormous spike/short term breakout on 3-18-09, right after the announcement was made.
A good entry point for long term investors will arise AFTER a 3 to 6 week Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle/correction occurs. Be patient and wise, and, ignore the noise! Cycles rule.
The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold (probably not now, GLD will probably peak in dramatic rollover mode, along with GDX/HUI/XAU) put in a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high on 2-20-09, lagging GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM as they tend to do.
Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, is not a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), but, NEM might peak tomorrow or monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.54% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, it was a very bullish +1.43% on 3-25, it was +0.07% on 3-24, it was +0.00% on 3-23, it was an extremely bullish +3.26% on 3-20, it was a very bullish +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18, -0.77% on 3-17, -1.76% on 3-16, +1.13% on 3-13, -1.43% on 3-12, -0.78% on 3-11, it was an extremely bearish -2.51% on 3-10, which correctly was a very short term bullish indication, +0.55% on 3-9, it was a super bearish -4.07% on 3-6, -0.84% on 3-5, +0.21% on 3-4, -0.95% on 3-3, it was a very bearish -1.38% on 3-2, it was an extremely bullish +2.97% on 2-27, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication, -0.07% on 2-26, +0.64% on 2-25, +1.98% on 2-24, +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17.
The bullish short term and bearish minor intermediate term scenario jives with the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past eight weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for four straight weeks prior to the last four weeks, when they traded a significant long position, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The past four weeks the savvy gold Commercial Traders took some profits on their huge short trade, and, they traded a significant long position. These guys know what they're doing.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.34 (filled 3-18), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eight weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.70% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 3-26, it was +0.04% on 3-25, it was +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2, -1.89% on 2-27, -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
In the daily SPX (S & P 500) chart one can see that SPX is doing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B upcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with bearish spikes on 3-9's and 3-16's candles, corresponding to Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle highs, of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09.
Since 3-17-09, when Wave 4 down of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 3-6-09 bottomed, SPX (S & P 500) has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with Wave 5 up probably peaking tomorrow 3-27-09.
SPX's (S & P 500) stochastics (93.59, 91.61) and Williams %R (-0.07, out of a 0 to -100 range, with 0 being the most overbought) are extremely/super overbought now.
The more SPX (S & P 500) defies gravity, and, the fact that the downcycles since 3-6-09 have been so brief and relatively modest (compared to the upcycles), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, jives well with the upcycle since 3-6-09 being the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09. The move since 3-6-09 is a huge spike move, that looks much more like important peaking action (which jives with countertrend Wave B action) than a Wave 1 type move.
The indicators and the fact that SPX's (S & P 500) upcycle since late yesterday 3-25 is rolling over (the Wave 1 spike move peaked just after the open, Wave 3 peaked about 2/3 into the session) point to potentially severe weakness early tomorrow, after likely very early strength (Wave 5 up of the upcycle since late yesterday very early on), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Also, SPX (S & P 500) has only gained a little over 1% the past three days versus Monday's cycle high, so, the monster upcycle since late Friday 3-20-09 is rolling over dramatically since Monday.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was modestly bearish at session's end today 3-26-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.14% rise in complacency/-2.14% decline in the wall of worry today 3-26, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +2.33% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -4.47%, which points to likely significant/maybe severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Friday 3-27-09, after likely early strength.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only slightly bearish today, closing at -0.24% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 3-26, but, it's super bearish recently, at +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
SPX's (S & P 500) Elliott Wave count is that SPX (S & P 500) is probably about to (once the Wave B move since 3-6-09 peaks) enter a Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
There might be a good shorting opportunity some time in the next week or less. I'm looking at trading FAZ (3x Finance Bear), which has an upside gap from Monday's open at 35, versus a close today at 18.80. This means that one might be able to make about 75% or more on FAZ in a day or two, if one buys it at 20ish and sells it at 35ish. This is why so many people are trading FAZ. Today's volume was a staggering 88.6 million shares!
The recent S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) COT (Commitments Of Traders) data jives with a very large move down occurring in the near future. See the SPX COT data about two thirds of the way down (or do edit find S & P 500 in your browser) at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.
The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders anticipated the countertrend Wave B monster rise since 3-6-09, adding a massive 26,118 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, and, they added 31,172 long futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09.
But, they added a massive 35,332 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-10-09, and, they added 3,696 short futures contracts in the five day period ending 3-17-09, in anticipation of a very large downcycle.
3-18's first post discusses the new Elliott Wave count, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/03/different-but-equivalent-spx-s-p-500.html.
One can basically prove that SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is very likely countertrend action, from WMT's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, since WMT is putting in an important countertrend Wave B type cycle high now.
Also, SPX's action since 3-6-09 has countertrend (and important peaking action) written all over it, due to a great deal of very large spiking action. In one session SPX (S & P 500) rose more than 6%, and, on 3-23-09 SPX rose a massive "supa dupa" +7.08%.
My strategy this week will be to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or some other ultra short ETF (like FAZ maybe), overnight trade a substantial QID (UltraShort QQQ (NDX basically) ProShares) position, and, I'll also overnight trade a tiny FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) position in an IRA. For the overnight trades I'll be careful to wait for a very large Wave A down type move to occur first, then I'll look to go long QID/FAZ shortly after a countertrend Wave B type upcycle peaks.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The size of the SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle since 3-6-09 is a clear sign that it is probably a countertrend upcycle and not a Wave 1 type upcycle/start of an important upcycle. This type of huge short term rise is the kind of substantial spiking action that occurs near important cycle highs, not very early in important upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 813.88 from 3-26's open, one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open, which one should watch, because, one might want to exit a (day trade and maybe also overnight timeframe short positions) short position shortly after a downside gap gets filled.
If one looks at the second Weekly View chart (at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) one can see that SPX (S & P 500) probably didn't bottom yet/on 3-6-09 (the huge spike move since 3-6-09 is probably a countertrend Wave B upcycle), because, the inverse spike three weeks ago is too small/not bullish enough, and, the candle is red/bearish, indicating a weekly close below the weekly open.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12 (filled 3-25), and 55.54, and, has a bullish breakaway downside gap at 51.68 from 3-26-09's open. SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX (S & P 500) has a downside gap at 813.88 from 3-26's open, one at 768.54 from 3-23-09's open, and, one at 676.53 from 3-10-09's open.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
GDX/HUI/XAU are in Wave 5 up of the huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.54% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, and, it was a very bullish +1.43% on 3-25. The huge rollover upcycle since early/mid March (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) might peak tomorrow.
The extremely bullish five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator suggests that when Wave 5 peaks (and the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), as one would expect, there should be a very large spike move (in progress), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the 2-17-09 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, due to the Fed's huge additional action announced last week, that led to an enormous spike/short term breakout on 3-18-09, right after the announcement was made.
A good entry point for long term investors will arise AFTER a 3 to 6 week Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle/correction occurs. Be patient and wise, and, ignore the noise! Cycles rule.
The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold (probably not now, GLD will probably peak in dramatic rollover mode, along with GDX/HUI/XAU) put in a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high on 2-20-09, lagging GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM as they tend to do.
Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, is not a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), but, NEM might peak tomorrow or monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.54% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, it was a very bullish +1.43% on 3-25, it was +0.07% on 3-24, it was +0.00% on 3-23, it was an extremely bullish +3.26% on 3-20, it was a very bullish +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18, -0.77% on 3-17, -1.76% on 3-16, +1.13% on 3-13, -1.43% on 3-12, -0.78% on 3-11, it was an extremely bearish -2.51% on 3-10, which correctly was a very short term bullish indication, +0.55% on 3-9, it was a super bearish -4.07% on 3-6, -0.84% on 3-5, +0.21% on 3-4, -0.95% on 3-3, it was a very bearish -1.38% on 3-2, it was an extremely bullish +2.97% on 2-27, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication, -0.07% on 2-26, +0.64% on 2-25, +1.98% on 2-24, +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17.
The bullish short term and bearish minor intermediate term scenario jives with the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past eight weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for four straight weeks prior to the last four weeks, when they traded a significant long position, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The past four weeks the savvy gold Commercial Traders took some profits on their huge short trade, and, they traded a significant long position. These guys know what they're doing.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.34 (filled 3-18), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eight weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.70% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 3-26, it was +0.04% on 3-25, it was +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2, -1.89% on 2-27, -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, SRS, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:21 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home