A Different But Equivalent SPX (S & P 500) Elliott Wave Count
Here's a different but probably equivalent SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Elliott Wave count to the one I've been using, that sheds much more light on what's probably going on now:
After putting in a countertrend Wave B intermediate term cycle high at 943.85 on 1-6-09 (cycle that began in late November 2008) SPX (S & P 500) did a Wave A down to 804.30 in mid January 2009, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Then, SPX (S & P 500) did an anemic countertrend Wave B up to 877.86 in late January 2009, followed by a Wave C down to 666.79 on 3-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Now for the interesting part, the SPX (S & P 500) Elliott Wave ABC down up down move from 943.85 on 1-6-09 to 666.79 on 3-6-09 is likely to only be a Wave A move down! (a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, of the intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-6-09.
A clear sign that that's probably the case is the lack of a substantial countertrend SPX (S & P 500) Wave B upcycle prior to 3-6-09. The one that occurred in late January 2009 is likely to only be Wave B up of Wave A down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, because it was very anemic.
The monster spike move since 3-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, is likely to be the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-6-09! The huge spiking action since 3-6-09 has countertrend important peaking action written all over it. It definitely doesn't look like a Wave 1 move, it looks much more like important peaking action.
This means that the SPX (S & P 500) huge Wave 5 downcycle (should soon begin, if it didn't already) I've been discussing recently probably corresponds to Wave C down of the intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-6-09!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The expected huge SPX (S & P 500) Wave 5 move down actually probably corresponds to a final Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle!, that might be the final leg down of the Wave A Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. Huge it will probably be.
Looking at the second Weekly View SPX (S & P 500) chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, note that the weekly candle when the Wave C cycle low at 666.79 occurred (on 3-6-09), of the Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle (began 1-6-09), doesn't look like an important cycle low. The inverse spike isn't that bullish (is relatively small), and, the candle is bearish/red, indicating a weekly close below the weekly open.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
After putting in a countertrend Wave B intermediate term cycle high at 943.85 on 1-6-09 (cycle that began in late November 2008) SPX (S & P 500) did a Wave A down to 804.30 in mid January 2009, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Then, SPX (S & P 500) did an anemic countertrend Wave B up to 877.86 in late January 2009, followed by a Wave C down to 666.79 on 3-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Now for the interesting part, the SPX (S & P 500) Elliott Wave ABC down up down move from 943.85 on 1-6-09 to 666.79 on 3-6-09 is likely to only be a Wave A move down! (a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, of the intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-6-09.
A clear sign that that's probably the case is the lack of a substantial countertrend SPX (S & P 500) Wave B upcycle prior to 3-6-09. The one that occurred in late January 2009 is likely to only be Wave B up of Wave A down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, because it was very anemic.
The monster spike move since 3-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, is likely to be the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-6-09! The huge spiking action since 3-6-09 has countertrend important peaking action written all over it. It definitely doesn't look like a Wave 1 move, it looks much more like important peaking action.
This means that the SPX (S & P 500) huge Wave 5 downcycle (should soon begin, if it didn't already) I've been discussing recently probably corresponds to Wave C down of the intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-6-09!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The expected huge SPX (S & P 500) Wave 5 move down actually probably corresponds to a final Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle!, that might be the final leg down of the Wave A Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. Huge it will probably be.
Looking at the second Weekly View SPX (S & P 500) chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, note that the weekly candle when the Wave C cycle low at 666.79 occurred (on 3-6-09), of the Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle (began 1-6-09), doesn't look like an important cycle low. The inverse spike isn't that bullish (is relatively small), and, the candle is bearish/red, indicating a weekly close below the weekly open.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, SRS, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:45 AM
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