...........Let Me Lay Some Elliott Wave On Ya
Here's some Elliott Wave for the Exxon Mobil (XOM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom) downcycle that began very early yesterday 3-19-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
It would be easy (for an Elliott Wave novice) to say that XOM was bottoming at session's end today 3-20-09, because of the ABC down up down pattern, which is probably wrong.
One sign that XOM (Exxon Mobil) probably didn't bottom yet is that today 3-20's crash/downcycle (which is probably a big Wave 3 downcycle), that began early on, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, only has very anemic countertrend Wave B up moves (compare them to the significant Wave B up move that occurred on 3-19, which was Wave B up of Wave A down).
In other words, Wave B up of Wave C down (which is also Wave 4 up = Wave B up of Wave C down) probably needs to occur early on Monday, followed obviously by the final Wave C of Wave C move down (Wave 5 down), for the downcycle that began very early yesterday 3-19-09.
XOM (Exxon Mobil) is probably doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since very early yesterday 3-19, with Wave A down = Wave 1 down, Wave B up = Wave 2 up, Wave A of Wave C = a big Wave 3 down (Wave 3s tend to be large), Wave B of Wave C = Wave 4 up, and, Wave C of Wave C = Wave 5 down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Another sign that XOM probably didn't bottom yet is the fact that the Wave B up move that peaked very early today 3-20 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is a bearish sign.
Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down patterns often occur in downcycles, that also are down up down patterns (yesterday 3-19's XOM Wave A down move is a good example of that, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), it did in the Wave A down move yesterday 3-19, and, probably will for the entire downcycle.
Also, checking to see if a pronounced countertrend Wave B up move occurred in both Waves A and C down is a good check, in addition obviously to the countertrend Wave B upcycle of a downcycle. So, there should typically be three pronounced countertrend Wave B up moves in a downcycle.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
It would be easy (for an Elliott Wave novice) to say that XOM was bottoming at session's end today 3-20-09, because of the ABC down up down pattern, which is probably wrong.
One sign that XOM (Exxon Mobil) probably didn't bottom yet is that today 3-20's crash/downcycle (which is probably a big Wave 3 downcycle), that began early on, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, only has very anemic countertrend Wave B up moves (compare them to the significant Wave B up move that occurred on 3-19, which was Wave B up of Wave A down).
In other words, Wave B up of Wave C down (which is also Wave 4 up = Wave B up of Wave C down) probably needs to occur early on Monday, followed obviously by the final Wave C of Wave C move down (Wave 5 down), for the downcycle that began very early yesterday 3-19-09.
XOM (Exxon Mobil) is probably doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since very early yesterday 3-19, with Wave A down = Wave 1 down, Wave B up = Wave 2 up, Wave A of Wave C = a big Wave 3 down (Wave 3s tend to be large), Wave B of Wave C = Wave 4 up, and, Wave C of Wave C = Wave 5 down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Another sign that XOM probably didn't bottom yet is the fact that the Wave B up move that peaked very early today 3-20 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is a bearish sign.
Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down patterns often occur in downcycles, that also are down up down patterns (yesterday 3-19's XOM Wave A down move is a good example of that, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), it did in the Wave A down move yesterday 3-19, and, probably will for the entire downcycle.
Also, checking to see if a pronounced countertrend Wave B up move occurred in both Waves A and C down is a good check, in addition obviously to the countertrend Wave B upcycle of a downcycle. So, there should typically be three pronounced countertrend Wave B up moves in a downcycle.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:56 PM
2 Comments:
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) downcycle (since very early on 3-19-09) discussed in this post is a very short term Wave A downcycle.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:21 PM
Correction: The XOM (Exxon Mobil) downcycle (since very early on 3-19-09) discussed in this post is probably a short term Wave A as well as a short term Wave 1 downcycle.
It helps to think of downcycles in terms of both ABC down up down and inverse 12345 down up down up down patterns, even though the inverse 12345 patterns don't always occur.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:32 PM
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