GDX/HUI/XAU Are Doing Wave 4 Down Of A Big Wave 3 Upcycle
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave 4 down of a big short term Wave 3 upcycle, of the monster Wave 5 rollover monthly upcycle (of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008) since early March, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
I've been thinking/suspecting this for a few days, but, now it's obvious. This is a big change (from a short term perspective, I wouldn't chase this monster rally as a long term investor) from being in Wave 5 peaking obviously, but, one has to be conservative (professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward).
The monster spike move on 3-18-09, following the huge $1 Trillion (might have been $1.2 Trillion, whatever, the point is that it was huge and the gold/silver sector broke out short term) Fed action announced after the FOMC, was a short term breakout.
Also, the reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since the 3-18-09 GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) short term breakout, at +0.38% versus the XAU today/on 3-27, +1.54% on 3-26, +1.43% on 3-25, +0.07% on 3-24, +0.00% on 3-23, +3.26% on 3-20, +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18. So, the next week or two should be very interesting.
Also, one must factor in the fact that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since Tuesday, at +1.67% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, and, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at very bullish today 3-27-09 (from +1.00% to +1.99% versus the S & P 500), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.
The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data continues to jive with a short term bullish and an intermediate term bearish scenario, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded a respectable long gold futures and options position in the five day period ending 3-24-09, while adding even more short gold futures and options, in anticipation of a substantial correction/intermediate term downcycle.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
I've been thinking/suspecting this for a few days, but, now it's obvious. This is a big change (from a short term perspective, I wouldn't chase this monster rally as a long term investor) from being in Wave 5 peaking obviously, but, one has to be conservative (professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward).
The monster spike move on 3-18-09, following the huge $1 Trillion (might have been $1.2 Trillion, whatever, the point is that it was huge and the gold/silver sector broke out short term) Fed action announced after the FOMC, was a short term breakout.
Also, the reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since the 3-18-09 GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) short term breakout, at +0.38% versus the XAU today/on 3-27, +1.54% on 3-26, +1.43% on 3-25, +0.07% on 3-24, +0.00% on 3-23, +3.26% on 3-20, +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18. So, the next week or two should be very interesting.
Also, one must factor in the fact that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish since Tuesday, at +1.67% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, and, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at very bullish today 3-27-09 (from +1.00% to +1.99% versus the S & P 500), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.
The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data continues to jive with a short term bullish and an intermediate term bearish scenario, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded a respectable long gold futures and options position in the five day period ending 3-24-09, while adding even more short gold futures and options, in anticipation of a substantial correction/intermediate term downcycle.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:52 PM
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