The US Dollar Hit a 5% Follow Through Major Buy Signal

The US Dollar hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, has very likely entered a 15 to 24 month Cyclical Bull Market, within a 15 to 20 year Secular Bear Market.

A major US Dollar breakout has obviously occurred. The US Dollar is in a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle, see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, that's obviously in a peaking process.

In chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish. Basic technical analysis exposes most gold writers for what they are, when it comes to market timing and technical analysis, incompetents, and, in some cases, frauds. Gold is only timely for long term investors near it's Secular Bull Market uptrend line, currently at $500ish, so, ignore the noise of the many goofball gold writers.

Gold entered a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 3-17-08, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, the same day the US Dollar entered a Cyclical Bull Market, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

It's deflationary forces that obviously rule the roost. Real estate deflation is HUGE. What do you think kept the US economy reasonably strong from 2002 until 2006? REAL ESTATE. The inflation that fueled gold's bull market from April 2001 until 3-17-08 largely came from REAL ESTATE.

There's obviously a deflationary economic bust in effect, with crashing real estate, tight mortgage lending, existing home equity lines of credit being shrunk or canceled due to crashing real estate values, the auto recession, very low consumer confidence, crashing velocity/circulation of money, that's more than cancelling out money supply growth/the Fed's efforts to inflate the economy, etc etc etc.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

I Accidentally Deleted Yesterday's Update eom

Today's update is just below this post.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

It Looks Like 8-27's GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM Downside Gaps Will Get Filled On Tuesday

It looks like 8-27's GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) downside gaps will probably get filled on Tuesday 9-2, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. GLD has a downside gap to watch at 80.06. SPX (S & P 500) created a downside gap at 1281.66 on 8-28, that will probably get filled early on Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Here are the clues pointing to downside gap filling action/weakness on Tuesday:

First, despite a very bullish intraday NEM Lead Indicator for much of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, GDX/HUI/XAU had bearish/ugly downtrending intraday action for most of the session, for the sixth straight session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.

Secondly, HUI closely approached it's 8-27 downside gap today late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, so, it obviously looks like downside gap filling action was already in progress late today 8-29.

Third, reliable lead indicator NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) started to plunge at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, and, created a large bearish spike on it's intraday candlestick chart shortly before session's end, so, it looks like NEM will probably try to fill it's downside gap at 44.20 early on Tuesday, and, GDX/HUI/XAU will probably try to fill 8-27's downside gaps early on Tuesday.

Fourth, HUI created a very large bearish spike just after today 8-29's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.

Lastly, the Elliott Wave count points to weakness on Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, because, GDX/HUI/XAU did a big Wave A down plunge early yesterday 8-28, then did a countertrend Wave B type rebound that peaked just after today's open, and, were in a Wave A of Wave C type decline for nearly all of today's session, and, appear to have entered a Wave C of Wave C type decline shortly before session's end.

If those downside gaps get filled (37.02 for GDX (watch 36.18, 34.46, 32.20 also), 44.20 for NEM (watch 43.25 also)), then the GDX/HUI/XAU countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08 (Wave C down of the GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-17-08, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), probably/very likely peaked just after 8-28's open, which would mean that, on 8-28-08 GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.

The cycles for reliable lead indicator NEM and GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are vastly different, because, NEM obviously leads. NEM is in a Cyclical Bull Market since the mid 2007 cycle low at 37.84. NEM's bear market from 1-31-06 until mid 2007 correctly portended the current GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08. NEM is in a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle since 8-11-08 versus GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in a Wave A major intermediate term downcycle (Wave C crash began 7-15-08) since 3-17-08.

The five day sector NEM Lead Indicator (+0.90% versus the XAU on 8-29, +0.19% on 8-28, -0.25% on 8-27, +0.78% on 8-26, -0.07% on 8-25, +1.87% on 8-22, -2.00% on 8-21, -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19) is very bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, which points to a significant bounce after likely GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM downside gap filling action early on Tuesday.

The five day broad market Walmart Lead Indicator (+0.02% versus the S & P 500 on 8-29, -0.48% on 8-28, -0.31% on 8-27, +0.40% on 8-26, +0.46% on 8-25, +0.48% on 8-22, -0.01% on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19), used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is neutral, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

I bought DZZ, the Double Short Gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN), at 33.17 on 8-26. I'm short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at 35.7501. I'll look to possibly cover GDX on Tuesday if it's downside gap at 36.18 gets filled, then look to go short again later on Tuesday.

Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, 36.18, and 37.02 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.

Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.

The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.90% versus the XAU today/on 8-29, was a slightly bullish +0.19% on 8-28, was a modestly bearish -0.25% on 8-27, was a bullish +0.78% on 8-26, was -0.07% on 8-25, was a very bullish +1.87% on 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was -0.47% on 8-19, was -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.

The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.

GDX created a downside gap at 37.02 on 8-27, HUI did so at 340.48, the XAU did so at 147.49, NEM did so at 44.20. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, GLD did so at 77.63. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably bottomed on 8-20-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might day trade SPX ultra long via SSO on Tuesday, after likely early weakness. SPX is in Wave 4 down of a short term Wave 5 upcycle since 8-20-08.

SPX created a downside gap at 1281.66 on 8-28, that will probably get filled early on Tuesday. Watch WMT's downside gap at 58.10 (filled 8-26) and SPX's at 1249.01. WMT has an upside gap at 60.76 and SPX has one at 1305.31.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.02% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-29, was a modestly bearish -0.48% on 8-28, was a modestly bearish -0.31% on 8-27, was a modestly bullish +0.40% on 8-26, was a modestly bullish +0.46% on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, -0.01% on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.

VIX rose an unusually large +6.28% today 8-29 versus SPX falling a significant -1.37%, which is a very sharp +4.91% rise in fear (+6.28% + -1.37% = +4.91% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength on Tuesday 9-2, after likely early weakness/downside gap filling action.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.02% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-29, was a modestly bearish -0.48% on 8-28, was a modestly bearish -0.31% on 8-27, was +0.40% on 8-26, was +0.46% on 8-25, was +0.48% on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, +0.36% on 8-6, +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SKF (Ultra Short Financials ETF) Elliott Wave Analysis

SKF's (Ultra Short Financials ETF) huge decline that bottomed in early August was probably a Wave A type decline, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?skf. The anemic bounce since early August, that probably peaked (channel/uptrend broke down, and, an anemic Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern occurred), was probably a countertrend Wave B type rebound.

SKF will probably fall well below 100 in a Wave C type crash in the next week or two. SKF created a bearish breakaway gap at 126.40 at today 8-28's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=skf&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Is In Wave 5 Of The Monthly Upcycle Since 8-11-08

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in the third/Wave 5 of the Monthly Upcycle since 8-11-08 (Likely Wave 2 Major Intermediate Term cycle low at 40.78), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, looks like it'll try to fill it's upside gap at 46.12 early tomorrow.

NEM made a large likely bullish breakaway gap at today 8-27's open (now a downside gap at 44.20), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

The lead indicators were only modestly bearish today, at -0.25% versus the XAU on 8-27 for sector NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.31% versus the S & P 500 on 8-27 for broad market WMT Lead Indicator, that's used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator.

The cycles for reliable lead indicator NEM and GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are vastly different, because, NEM obviously leads. NEM is in a Cyclical Bull Market since the mid 2007 cycle low at 37.84. NEM's bear market from 1-31-06 until mid 2007 correctly portended the current GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08. NEM is in a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle since 8-11-08 versus GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in a Wave A major intermediate term downcycle (Wave C crash began 7-15-08) since 3-17-08.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD will probably/might try to fill Friday 8-22's upside gaps early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note how little time they're spending trending up the past four sessions (bearish ugly action/intraday chart). A brief spike occurred early on then down they went, which jives with the very bearish cycle picture now (Wave C (crash began 7-15-08) of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since 3-17-08).

If the upside gaps get filled, which would mean that the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 (Wave B of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08) didn't peak on 8-21-08, and, the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 would end up having an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, so, it wouldn't be a big surprise.

Since bottoming right after yesterday 8-26's open GDX has done an up down up down and is in/trying to do Wave 5 up, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

The five day sector NEM Lead Indicator (-0.25% versus the XAU on 8-27, +0.78% on 8-26, -0.07% on 8-25, +1.87% on 8-22, -2.00% on 8-21, -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19) is bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The five day broad market Walmart Lead Indicator (-0.31% versus the S & P 500 on 8-27, +0.40% on 8-26, +0.46% on 8-25, +0.48% on 8-22, -0.01% on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19), used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is modestly bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

I bought DZZ, the Double Short Gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN), at 33.17 on 8-26. I'm already short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at 35.7501. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX/RUT ultra long after likely early weakness (wait for NDX/RUT's short term Wave 4 downcycle to bottom).

On 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.

The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus the week before last's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21.

8-21's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21, and, the relatively flat action for most of 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.

Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.

Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.

The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.25% versus the XAU today/on 8-27, was a bullish +0.78% on 8-26, was -0.07% on 8-25, was a very bullish +1.87% on 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was -0.47% on 8-19, was -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.

The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.

GDX created a downside gap at 37.02 on 8-27, HUI did so at 340.48, the XAU did so at 147.49, NEM did so at 44.20. GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, GLD did so at 77.63. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably remains in effect (RUT might have bottomed), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX or RUT are better longs) ultra long via SSO on Thursday, when I'm convinced the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 has bottomed.

For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX or RUT ultra long via QLD or UWM on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle should/might bottom. Watch WMT's downside gap at 58.10 (filled 8-26) and SPX's at 1249.01.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.31% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-27, was a modestly bullish +0.40% on 8-26, was a modestly bullish +0.46% on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.

WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 (filled 8-25) on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.

VIX fell a very sharp -3.12% today 8-27 versus SPX rising a significant +0.80%, which is a sharp +2.32% rise in complacency (-3.12% + +0.80% = -2.32% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Thursday 8-28, followed by strength, once the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 bottoms.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.31% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-27, was +0.40% on 8-26, was +0.46% on 8-25, was +0.48% on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, +0.36% on 8-6, +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

Three Mining Stocks That Recently Probably Entered A Cyclical Bull Market Are LMC, NAK, and RBY

Three mining stocks that recently probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market are LMC, NAK (up big today, probably news driven), and RBY (recent good news), see (second chart down for big picture) http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lmc, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nak, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rby.

Not recommendations, do your own due diligence. With Lundin Mining (LMC) it probably makes sense to wait for more follow through (wait for the next monthly upcycle) before trading it long.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Are Trying To Fill Friday 8-22's Upside Gaps

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) are trying to fill Friday 8-22's upside gaps, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Reliable lead indicator NEM is trying to fill it's upside gap at 46.12.

The sector NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.78% versus the XAU yesterday/on 8-26, and, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was +0.40% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday, so, today's "strength" isn't a shocker, though, so far the strength has been a big spike at the open followed by weakness.

Right now it looks like those upside gaps won't get filled until later on, after Wave A of the GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March bottoms. However, the respectably large gaps up at the open today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, might mean that upside gaps will get filled.

If the upside gaps get filled, which would mean that the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 (Wave B of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08) didn't peak on 8-21-08, and, the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 would end up having an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, so, it wouldn't be a big surprise.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

A Sharp Decline Is Likely Tomorrow For GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD And NEM

A sharp decline and attempted downside gap filling action is likely tomorrow for GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD and NEM, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, because, GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD ended today 8-26's session in Wave C of a Wave C downcycle that began early yesterday, after a countertrend Wave B type cycle high occurred. Note GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) bearish large spike early yesterday. Also, GDX has a bearish large spike on today 8-26's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

It looks like GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM will try to fill Thursday 8-21's downside gaps (GDX at 36.18, HUI at 330.47, the XAU at 145.35, GLD at 80.06, NEM at 43.25) early tomorrow.

Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) has a medium sized bearish spike on today 8-26's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

The five day sector NEM Lead Indicator (+0.78% versus the XAU on 8-26, -0.07% on 8-25, +1.87% on 8-22, -2.00% on 8-21, -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19) is bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The five day broad market Walmart Lead Indicator (+0.40% versus the S & P 500 on 8-26, +0.46% on 8-25, +0.48% on 8-22, -0.01% on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19), used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

I bought DZZ, the Double Short Gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN), at 33.17 today 8-26. I'm already short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at 35.7501. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX/RUT ultra long after likely early weakness (wait for NDX/RUT's short term Wave 4 downcycle to bottom).

On 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.

The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus the week before last's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21.

8-21's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21, and, the relatively flat action for most of 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.

Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.

Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.

The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.78% versus the XAU today/on 8-26, was -0.07% on 8-25, was a very bullish +1.87% on 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was -0.47% on 8-19, was -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.

The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.

GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38 (filled), GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51 (filled). GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12 (filled). Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14 (filled), and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably remains in effect, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX or RUT are better longs) ultra long via SSO on Wednesday, when I'm convinced the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 has bottomed.

For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX or RUT ultra long via QLD or UWM on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle should/might bottom. Watch WMT's downside gap at 58.10 (filled 8-26) and SPX's at 1249.01.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.40% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-26, was a modestly bullish +0.46% on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.

WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 (filled 8-25) on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.

VIX fell a sharp -2.10% today 8-26 versus SPX rising a modest +0.37%, which is a significant +1.73% rise in complacency (-2.10% + +0.37% = -1.73% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Wednesday 8-27, followed by strength, once the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 bottoms.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.40% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-26, was a modestly bullish +0.46% on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, was -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD And NEM Action Was As Expected

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM action was as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. A Wave B type move occurred early on as expected, in which GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD failed to fill the bearish breakaway upside gaps created at Friday 8-22's open.

Then, a Wave A of Wave C move (GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD) occurred until mid session, followed by an extremely anemic Wave B of Wave C move after that (bearish sign obviously), and, it looks like GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM will try to fill Thursday 8-21's downside gaps (GDX at 36.18, HUI at 330.47, the XAU at 145.35, GLD at 80.06, NEM at 43.25) early tomorrow, after possibly more Wave B of Wave C strength at the open/very early on.

Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) has a large bearish spike on today 8-25's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

The five day sector NEM Lead Indicator (-0.07% versus the XAU on 8-25, +1.87% on 8-22, -2.00% on 8-21, -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19) is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The five day broad market Walmart Lead Indicator (+0.46% versus the S & P 500 on 8-25, +0.48% on 8-22, -0.01% on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19), used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is slightly bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Some Wave B of Wave C strength might occur early on (I hope, also, gold should be lagging, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), in which I'll look to buy DZZ, the Double Short Gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN). The
NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.07% versus the XAU today/on 8-25. I'm already short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at 35.7501. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX/RUT ultra long after likely early weakness (wait for NDX/RUT's short term Wave 4 downcycle to bottom).

On 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.

The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus the week before last's cycle high. Since the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish bordering on extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it was probably rollover action versus the week before last's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21.

8-21's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked on 8-21, and, the relatively flat action for most of 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.

Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.

Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.

The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.07% versus the XAU today/on 8-25, was a very bullish +1.87% on 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was a modestly bearish -0.47% on 8-19, was a slightly bearish -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.

The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.

GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38 (filled), GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51 (filled). GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12 (filled). Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14 (filled), and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably remains in effect, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX or RUT are better longs) ultra long via SSO on Tuesday, when I'm convinced the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 has bottomed.

For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX or RUT ultra long via QLD or UWM on Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle should/might bottom on Tuesday 8-26. Watch WMT's downside gap at 58.10 and SPX's at 1249.01.

NDX's downside gap at 1906.74 got filled today 8-25.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.46% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.

WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 (filled 8-25) on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.

VIX rose an unusually large +11.48% today 8-25 versus SPX falling a significant -1.96%, which is an unusually large +9.52% rise in fear (+11.48% + -1.96% = +9.52% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Tuesday 8-26, followed by strength, once the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 bottoms.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.46% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-25, was a modestly bullish +0.48% on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, was -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market Cycle Low Target Range Is 230 To 250

HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low target range is 230 to 250, see the long term chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, should occur some time next year.

Wave A down of HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 should bottom at 280 to 300, so, 230 to 250 is a reasonable target range for the final Wave C cycle low next year. Note that the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market uptrend line (if one connected recent major cycle lows in 2005 and 2007) has broken down.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

"In the Central Valley, the Ruins of the Housing Bust"

"In the Central Valley, the Ruins of the Housing Bust," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/business/24house.html. The real estate bust (crash/debacle/fiasco are better ways to describe it) should last well into next year, and, maybe into 2010.

"Higher Fees for Mortgages," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/realestate/24mort.html, will obviously exacerbate the situation.

Some of the first article:

"How long will the economy have to pay the price for that illusion? The experience of Merced, which rose higher and fell faster than nearly anywhere else, suggests that recovery from the national real estate debacle will be painful and protracted.

In the three years since housing peaked here, the median sales price has fallen by 50 percent. There are thousands of foreclosures on the market. The asking prices on those properties are so low that competitive bidding, a hallmark of the boom, is back.

But almost no homeowner can afford to sell. If you cannot go as low as “the foreclosure price” — the cost of a comparable bank-owned house — real estate agents say you might as well not even bother listing your home.

And so most people do not: three out of four existing-home sales in Merced County are now foreclosures, the highest percentage in the state, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The only group for whom selling makes sense, real estate agents here say, are the elderly entering assisted-living facilities, who often have decades of appreciation built into their home’s value.

As Merced goes, so might go much of the nation. With as many as 2.5 million homes in the United States entering foreclosure this year and, at best, sales of only five million existing houses, the foreclosure price is becoming the rule in many areas. In Los Angeles County, whose 10 million people make it the most populous county in the United States, a third of the sales are foreclosures.

Local markets will not truly begin to recover until their foreclosures are absorbed, but just as few in Merced saw reasons for caution at the height of the boom, hardly anyone is optimistic now. Bank repossessions are accelerating as overleveraged owners see the value of their properties sink. Merced County had a record 523 foreclosures in July, quadruple the rate of a year earlier, according to DataQuick.
The repossessions are accelerating as overleveraged owners see the value of their properties sink and can find no way out."

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

GLD (Gold ETF) - A Huge Extremely Bearish Spike To Behold

Check out GLD's (Gold ETF) huge extremely bearish spike (84.54 cycle high, it's in Yahoo's historical data, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GLD) on yesterday 8-21's intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The daily chart's candle also has a very large very bearish spike yesterday 8-21, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.

I'll be looking to buy DZZ, the Double Short Gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN) early on Monday. GLD (Gold ETF) should fill 8-21's downside gap at 80.06 on Monday or Tuesday.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM Will Probably Try To Fill 8-21's Downside Gaps On Monday

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) will probably try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gaps early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

Reliable lead Indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) completed a Wave A down type move early today that began yesterday (had an Elliott Wave down up down pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, then, NEM did a brief Wave B spike and filled today's upside gap at 44.89, and, did a Wave A of Wave C type move most of the rest of the session (the bottom late today, only slightly below the Wave A cycle low early today, is a sign that it's not the final Wave C cycle low. Also, the mid session Wave B type bounce was very brief/anemic, it was very likely Wave B of Wave A of Wave C), ending the session in Wave B of a very short term Wave C downcycle that began early today after 44.89 got filled.

So, after maybe some brief Wave B type strength early on Monday NEM should enter Wave C of the very short term Wave C downcycle (began early today), in which NEM should try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gap at 43.25, and, GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD should try to fill yesterday 8-21's downside gaps (GDX at 36.18, HUI at 330.47, the XAU at 145.35, GLD at 80.06). NEM has a respectably large bearish spike on today 8-22's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

So, on Monday one might day trade GDX short, then look to cover if 36.18 gets filled or clearly doesn't. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.87% versus the XAU today 8-22. I'll look at possibly trading AEM long (day trade) or NDX ultra long.

After a brief feeble attempt at filling today's upside gaps (38.30, 353.14, 82.30, 153.77, NEM did fill 44.89) GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD experienced severe weakness despite a very bullish sector NEM Lead Indicator today (+1.87% versus the XAU on 8-22), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, and, a bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator today (+0.48% versus the S & P 500 on 8-22), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is obviously a very bearish omen, because, it indicates/jives with a very strong downcycle being in effect.

Yesterday 8-21-08 GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably entered Wave C of the Wave C crash since 7-15-08, which is Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.

The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high. Since the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish bordering on extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday 8-21.

Yesterday's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked, and, the relatively flat action for most of yesterday 8-21's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.

Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20, 34.46, and 36.18 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.

Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.

The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.87% versus the XAU today 8-22, was an extremely bearish -2.00% on 8-21, was a bearish -0.87% on 8-20, was a modestly bearish -0.47% on 8-19, was a slightly bearish -0.21% on 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.

The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.

GDX created an upside gap at 38.30 on 8-22, HUI did so at 353.14, the XAU did so at 153.77, GLD did so at 82.30. GDX created a downside gap at 36.18 on 8-21, HUI did so at 330.47, the XAU did so at 145.35, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 43.25. GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38 (filled), GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51 (filled). GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12 (filled). Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14 (filled), and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 for GLD.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 probably bottomed early on 8-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I might trade SPX (probably NDX) ultra long via SSO on Monday.

For day trading and possibly overnight trading purposes I'll be looking at trading NDX ultra long via QLD on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since the short term Wave 4 downcycle has bottomed. NDX created a likely bullish breakaway gap at 1906.74 at today 8-22's open.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.48% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-22, was a slightly bearish -0.01% on 8-21, was a modestly bearish -0.34% on 8-20, was a slightly bearish -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, so, it's bullish short term.

WMT created a downside gap at 58.50 on 8-22. WMT created an upside gap on 8-19 at 58.83 and SPX did so at 1278.60. WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.

VIX fell a very sharp -5.10% today 8-22 versus SPX rising a significant +1.13%, which is a very sharp +3.97% rise in complacency (-5.10% + +1.13% = -3.97% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Monday 8-25.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.48% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-22, was -0.01% on 8-21, was -0.34% on 8-20, was -0.14% on 8-19, was a bullish +0.60% on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was +0.52% on 8-11, was -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15.

The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Since 8-11-08 Probably Peaked Yesterday

The countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. GDX/HUI/XAU gapped down at the open today 8-22, and, those upside gaps appear to be bearish breakaway gaps. After a Wave A type plunge at the open GDX/HUI/XAU tried and failed to fill today's upside gaps in an intraday countertrend Wave B type move.

However, the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem. Obviously, I'd be more confident that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 peaked if the sector NEM Lead Indicator was bearish today. But, it's important to note that the NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.00% versus the XAU yesterday 8-21, and, was bearish the three sessions before that, at -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19, and -0.21% on 8-18.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (used in concert with the NEM Lead Indicator) is bullish today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was modestly bearish the prior three days, at -0.01% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday/on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19.

The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high. Since the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish bordering on extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday 8-21.

Yesterday's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked, and, the relatively flat action for most of yesterday's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.

The GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 and probably peaked yesterday 8-21-08 is Wave B up of the Wave C (since 7-15-08) crash of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI