The Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Since 8-11-08 Probably Peaked Yesterday
The countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. GDX/HUI/XAU gapped down at the open today 8-22, and, those upside gaps appear to be bearish breakaway gaps. After a Wave A type plunge at the open GDX/HUI/XAU tried and failed to fill today's upside gaps in an intraday countertrend Wave B type move.
However, the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem. Obviously, I'd be more confident that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 peaked if the sector NEM Lead Indicator was bearish today. But, it's important to note that the NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.00% versus the XAU yesterday 8-21, and, was bearish the three sessions before that, at -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19, and -0.21% on 8-18.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (used in concert with the NEM Lead Indicator) is bullish today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was modestly bearish the prior three days, at -0.01% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday/on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19.
The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high. Since the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish bordering on extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday 8-21.
Yesterday's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked, and, the relatively flat action for most of yesterday's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.
The GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 and probably peaked yesterday 8-21-08 is Wave B up of the Wave C (since 7-15-08) crash of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
However, the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem. Obviously, I'd be more confident that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 peaked if the sector NEM Lead Indicator was bearish today. But, it's important to note that the NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.00% versus the XAU yesterday 8-21, and, was bearish the three sessions before that, at -0.87% on 8-20, -0.47% on 8-19, and -0.21% on 8-18.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (used in concert with the NEM Lead Indicator) is bullish today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was modestly bearish the prior three days, at -0.01% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday/on 8-21, -0.34% on 8-20, -0.14% on 8-19.
The upcycle that began on Friday 8-15-08 might have been Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, or, more likely, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high. Since the sector NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish bordering on extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it was probably rollover action versus last week's cycle high, which means that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked yesterday 8-21.
Yesterday's huge GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) spike move was a sign of important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is another sign that the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08 probably peaked, and, the relatively flat action for most of yesterday's session is what tends to occur near important cycle highs.
The GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-11-08 and probably peaked yesterday 8-21-08 is Wave B up of the Wave C (since 7-15-08) crash of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:30 AM
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