GDX (Gold Miners ETF) Probably Created A Bullish Breakaway Gap At 34.46 At Today's Open
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably created a bullish breakaway gap at 34.46 at today 8-18's open (reliable lead indicator NEM probably did so at 41.51), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. GDX "needs to" complete the Wave C type decline (it was in late today) early tomorrow, in which it probably won't fill today's downside gap at 34.46, since it appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.
The sector NEM Lead Indicator was only slightly bearish today 8-18, at -0.21% versus the XAU, and, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, which jives with today's GDX/NEM downside gaps at 34.46/41.51 probably being bullish breakaway gaps. Also, the prior two sessions the NEM Lead Indicator (+0.45% on 8-15, +1.48% on 8-14) and the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (+1.78% on 8-15, -0.17% on 8-14) were very bullish.
Once GDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) bottoms tomorrow it should do a Wave 5 type move and fill Friday's upside gap at 35.87. Since early Friday GDX has done an up down up, and, is currently in Wave 4 down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
I'll look to trade GDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx), NEM, or AEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aem, acting very well, up +6.47% today versus +1.89% for GDX, and, appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down major intermediate term downcycle since March) long tomorrow. If AEM does the expected Wave C down type move early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, I'll probably trade it.
The upcycle since early Friday appears to be the start of Wave 3 of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, which is Wave B up of Wave C (since 7-15-08) of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-17-08, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20 and 34.46 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.21% versus the XAU today 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51. GDX created an upside gap at 35.87 on 8-15, NEM did so at 42.89, GLD did so at 79.35, HUI did so at 327.350, and, the XAU did so at 142.62. GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading trading purposes I'll be looking at trading WMT long, or, SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM on Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11 has bottomed. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX rose an unusually large +7.15% today 8-18 versus SPX falling a significant -1.51%, which is a very sharp +5.64% rise in fear (+7.15% + -1.51% = +5.64% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Tuesday 8-19, once the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 bottoms.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was a slightly bearish -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The sector NEM Lead Indicator was only slightly bearish today 8-18, at -0.21% versus the XAU, and, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, which jives with today's GDX/NEM downside gaps at 34.46/41.51 probably being bullish breakaway gaps. Also, the prior two sessions the NEM Lead Indicator (+0.45% on 8-15, +1.48% on 8-14) and the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (+1.78% on 8-15, -0.17% on 8-14) were very bullish.
Once GDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) bottoms tomorrow it should do a Wave 5 type move and fill Friday's upside gap at 35.87. Since early Friday GDX has done an up down up, and, is currently in Wave 4 down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
I'll look to trade GDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx), NEM, or AEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aem, acting very well, up +6.47% today versus +1.89% for GDX, and, appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down major intermediate term downcycle since March) long tomorrow. If AEM does the expected Wave C down type move early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=aem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, I'll probably trade it.
The upcycle since early Friday appears to be the start of Wave 3 of the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-11-08, which is Wave B up of Wave C (since 7-15-08) of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-17-08, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.
Wave A down of the HUI/XAU/Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. At important cycle lows there's almost always a bullish very large inverse spike, and, on 8-11 the inverse spike is relatively small compared to prior important cycle lows, see the second chart down at the link above. Also, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has unfilled downside gaps at 32.20 and 34.46 that will probably get filled before the bottom occurs.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.21% versus the XAU today 8-18, was +0.45% on 8-15, was a very bullish +1.48% on 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GDX created a downside gap at 34.46 on 8-18, HUI did so at 315.50, the XAU did so at 137.38, GLD did so at 77.63, and, NEM did so at 41.51. GDX created an upside gap at 35.87 on 8-15, NEM did so at 42.89, GLD did so at 79.35, HUI did so at 327.350, and, the XAU did so at 142.62. GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading trading purposes I'll be looking at trading WMT long, or, SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM on Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11 has bottomed. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-18, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-15 at 58.10, and, SPX has one at 1249.01 from 8-5. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX rose an unusually large +7.15% today 8-18 versus SPX falling a significant -1.51%, which is a very sharp +5.64% rise in fear (+7.15% + -1.51% = +5.64% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Tuesday 8-19, once the short term Wave 4 downcycle since 8-11-08 bottoms.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-18, was a very bullish +1.78% on 8-15, was a slightly bearish -0.17% on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:05 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home