GDX/HUI/XAU's Countertrend Upcycle Since 8-11 Probably Didn't Peak Yet
GDX/HUI/XAU's countertrend upcycle since 8-11 (GLD took out it's 8-12 cycle low today, gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU) probably didn't peak yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The daily candlestick chart (at the link above) doesn't look like the countertrend upcycle since 8-11 has peaked, because, there isn't the usual large bearish spike that occurs at important cycle highs.
Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.48% versus the XAU today/on 8-14, which obviously suggests that the countertrend upcycle since 8-11 might not have peaked yet, and, the broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, was only slightly bearish today 8-14, at -0.17% versus the S & P 500 (SPX).
It looks like NEM might make another run at filling it's upside gap at 44.71 tomorrow, after peaking today at 44.50.
If NEM trys and fills or clearly fails to fill 44.71 early tomorrow, that will be a sign to look to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and/or GLD. I'll look to short GDX early tomorrow. I day traded GDX short today, entering/shorting at 37.25 and exiting/covering at 36.20.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) should bottom well below 8-11's cycle low at 33.86, assuming that the upcycle since 8-11 is countertrend action. Since GDX has a downside gap at 32.20, 32 is a reasonable cycle low target for Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. Often important cycle highs/lows tend to occur shortly after gap filling action has been completed.
NEM created what appears to be a bullish breakaway gap at yesterday 8-13's open at 42.36, and, GDX did so at 35.37, HUI did so at 324.45, and, the XAU did so at 140.84. They'll probably all get filled in the near future.
The GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD crash since 7-15-08 (Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March) probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, because, there isn't a large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
NEM filled downside gaps at 42.29 and 41.52 on 8-11, which is another sign that an important cycle low is probably imminent. Also, volume was an extremely high 15.335 million shares on 8-11, and, volatility has obviously been extreme as well, which are additional signs that a very important cycle low is imminent.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.48% versus the XAU today 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a downside gap at 43.75 on 8-6, and, GDX created one at 38.59, that both got filled on 8-8. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle (yup, count change, it's an anemic monthly upcycle, RUT's chart looks much healthier) since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading trading purposes I'll be looking at trading WMT short, or, SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-14.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-5 at 58.43 (filled) and SPX did so at 1249.01. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -5.52% today 8-14 versus SPX rising a significant +0.55%, which is a very sharp +4.97% rise in complacency (-5.52% + +0.55% = -4.97% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp weakness early on Friday 8-15.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.48% versus the XAU today/on 8-14, which obviously suggests that the countertrend upcycle since 8-11 might not have peaked yet, and, the broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, was only slightly bearish today 8-14, at -0.17% versus the S & P 500 (SPX).
It looks like NEM might make another run at filling it's upside gap at 44.71 tomorrow, after peaking today at 44.50.
If NEM trys and fills or clearly fails to fill 44.71 early tomorrow, that will be a sign to look to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and/or GLD. I'll look to short GDX early tomorrow. I day traded GDX short today, entering/shorting at 37.25 and exiting/covering at 36.20.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) should bottom well below 8-11's cycle low at 33.86, assuming that the upcycle since 8-11 is countertrend action. Since GDX has a downside gap at 32.20, 32 is a reasonable cycle low target for Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, which is Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. Often important cycle highs/lows tend to occur shortly after gap filling action has been completed.
NEM created what appears to be a bullish breakaway gap at yesterday 8-13's open at 42.36, and, GDX did so at 35.37, HUI did so at 324.45, and, the XAU did so at 140.84. They'll probably all get filled in the near future.
The GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD crash since 7-15-08 (Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March) probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, because, there isn't a large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on 8-11's candle, and, might have bottomed on 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
NEM filled downside gaps at 42.29 and 41.52 on 8-11, which is another sign that an important cycle low is probably imminent. Also, volume was an extremely high 15.335 million shares on 8-11, and, volatility has obviously been extreme as well, which are additional signs that a very important cycle low is imminent.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.48% versus the XAU today 8-14, was a very bearish -1.62% on 8-13, was a very bearish -1.03% 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a downside gap at 43.75 on 8-6, and, GDX created one at 38.59, that both got filled on 8-8. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle (yup, count change, it's an anemic monthly upcycle, RUT's chart looks much healthier) since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode on 8-11 (spike on 8-11's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading trading purposes I'll be looking at trading WMT short, or, SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-14.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-5 at 58.43 (filled) and SPX did so at 1249.01. WMT has upside gaps at 60.76, 59.25 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX fell a very sharp -5.52% today 8-14 versus SPX rising a significant +0.55%, which is a very sharp +4.97% rise in complacency (-5.52% + +0.55% = -4.97% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp weakness early on Friday 8-15.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-14, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 8-13, was an extremely bullish +2.39% on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:02 PM
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