.....A US Dollar Explosion Crashes Gold Stocks
A US Dollar explosion, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uup&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, crashes gold stocks, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The US Dollar apparently had it's largest % gain in years today. Today's extreme volatility in gold stocks and the US Dollar points to an imminent important cycle low in GDX/HUI/XAU/gold/NEM. Unfortunately, today 8-8's daily candlestick charts (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) don't look like a bottom has been reached, because, there isn't the usual large bullish inverse spike.
In order for NEM's Elliott Wave count to hold up, NEM almost has to have hit a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today 8-8, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
However, NEM's candle has a large bearish spike today, which casts serious doubt on an important cycle low having occurred today, but, NEM completed an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern late today (putting in a higher cycle low than the early session cycle low at 43.20), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.90% versus the XAU today, so, maybe NEM did bottom today 8-8.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a downside gap at 43.75 on 8-6, and, GDX created one at 38.59, that both obviously got filled today 8-8.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.90% versus the XAU today 8-8, was a very bullish +1.26% on 8-7, was a very bearish -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.29% on 8-4, was an extremely bullish +2.28% versus the XAU on 8-1, and +1.08% on 7-31, and, is extremely bullish in recent weeks, at -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10 (filled 8-5), 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42 (filled), 85.83 (filled 8-7), and, 84.58 (filled 8-8).
Reliable lead indicator NEM is/might still be in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle that began in early July after the cycle high at 53.77, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are/might still be in a Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 1 upcycle since 7-15 is peaking in deceptive rollover mode, and, is doing a rollover upcycle since late July, that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart) that's in Wave 5 peaking, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading and possibly overnight (might ultra short SPX or RUT via SDS or TWM) trading purposes I'll be looking at trading SPX or RUT ultra short on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. I'll also look at possibly trading Newmont Mining (NEM) long.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.81% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-4, and, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-5 at 58.43 (filled) and SPX did so at 1249.01.
WMT has an upside gap at 60.76 and SPX had one at 1289.19 (filled).
VIX fell a sharp -2.41% today 8-8 versus SPX rising a sharp +2.39%, which is a slight +0.02% rise in complacency (-2.41% + +2.39% = -0.02% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some slight weakness early on Monday 8-11.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.81% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle is occurring, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The US Dollar apparently had it's largest % gain in years today. Today's extreme volatility in gold stocks and the US Dollar points to an imminent important cycle low in GDX/HUI/XAU/gold/NEM. Unfortunately, today 8-8's daily candlestick charts (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) don't look like a bottom has been reached, because, there isn't the usual large bullish inverse spike.
In order for NEM's Elliott Wave count to hold up, NEM almost has to have hit a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today 8-8, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
However, NEM's candle has a large bearish spike today, which casts serious doubt on an important cycle low having occurred today, but, NEM completed an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern late today (putting in a higher cycle low than the early session cycle low at 43.20), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.90% versus the XAU today, so, maybe NEM did bottom today 8-8.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a downside gap at 43.75 on 8-6, and, GDX created one at 38.59, that both obviously got filled today 8-8.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.90% versus the XAU today 8-8, was a very bullish +1.26% on 8-7, was a very bearish -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.29% on 8-4, was an extremely bullish +2.28% versus the XAU on 8-1, and +1.08% on 7-31, and, is extremely bullish in recent weeks, at -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10 (filled 8-5), 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42 (filled), 85.83 (filled 8-7), and, 84.58 (filled 8-8).
Reliable lead indicator NEM is/might still be in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle that began in early July after the cycle high at 53.77, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are/might still be in a Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 1 upcycle since 7-15 is peaking in deceptive rollover mode, and, is doing a rollover upcycle since late July, that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart) that's in Wave 5 peaking, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading and possibly overnight (might ultra short SPX or RUT via SDS or TWM) trading purposes I'll be looking at trading SPX or RUT ultra short on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. I'll also look at possibly trading Newmont Mining (NEM) long.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.81% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-4, and, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-5 at 58.43 (filled) and SPX did so at 1249.01.
WMT has an upside gap at 60.76 and SPX had one at 1289.19 (filled).
VIX fell a sharp -2.41% today 8-8 versus SPX rising a sharp +2.39%, which is a slight +0.02% rise in complacency (-2.41% + +2.39% = -0.02% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some slight weakness early on Monday 8-11.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.81% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle is occurring, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:45 PM
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