Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

"Morgan Stanley to freeze home-equity credit lines: report"

"Morgan Stanley to freeze home-equity credit lines: report," see http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080806/morganstanley.html. This is happening a lot, and, is obviously very deflationary. Gold entered a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 3-17-08, and, is heading for $500 to $550, which is where it's Secular Bull Market trendline is (won't be known exactly until Wave 2 bottoms).

It's obvious that most gold writers aren't doing objective honest market timing and technical analysis. This gold bear will make them look even more foolish than they already look.

The ONLY way one can truly consistently time the market really is with a proven system. Using technical analysis and educated guessing, which is what nearly all people do, simply DOESN'T WORK CONSISTENTLY. Without understanding cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps, the crux/basis of Trade the Cycles, it's very unlikely that one can time the market. If some other system does work well, it must correlate to/factor in to a large degree, cycles and Elliott Wave patterns.

What happens a lot is that, if things go as expected near term, people think they got it right. Well, 99% of all gold bugs think gold's still in a Cyclical Bull Market, when in fact it's obviously a bear market since 3-17-08. Even in Cyclical Bull Markets there are major multi month downcycles/corrections, that are more than near term cycles.

The US economy was propped up (was rescued from the post March 2000 bust) by very easy mortgage lending practices, rock bottom rates, and skyrocketing real estate values from 2002 until 2006, which was obviously very inflationary. What you won't hear from any other gold writer. The real estate and easy money mortgage lending boom got the US out of the post March 2000 economic/stock market bust. What gets the US out of this bust is a mystery right now. This is probably going to be a long multi year bust.

"Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS - News) told thousands of clients this week that they will not be allowed to withdraw money on their home-equity credit lines, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday, citing a person familiar with the situation. Most of the clients had properties that have lost value, the agency reported, citing a person who declined to be identified."

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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