GDX/HUI/GLD's 7-30 Cycle Low Held Today, The XAU's Failed
GDX/HUI/GLD's 7-30 cycle low held today, the XAU's failed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for HUI, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU.
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining's cycle low from 7-30 held today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. NEM did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern following yesterday 7-31's very short term Wave 1 type cycle high, and, appears to have bottomed near session's end.
I bought NEM at 47.2999 shortly after NEM hit the session cycle low at 47.01 (NEM is at 47.40 after hours). The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bullish the past two days, at +2.28% versus the XAU on 8-1 and +1.08% on 7-31, and, is extremely bullish in recent weeks, at -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled yesterday 7-31's downside gap at 43.19 early today as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The downside gaps at 402.30 for HUI and at 89.52 for GLD got filled today 8-1.
GDX/HUI/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 very likely bottomed on 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on 7-30's candle. The XAU took out the 7-30 cycle low today 8-1. In bear markets downside surprises are much more likely.
The dramatic rebound after brief early severe weakness on 7-30 is a sign that GDX/HUI/GLD have probably bottomed short term/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle on 7-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on 7-30's candle. NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
Waiting for NEM to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle (hit a 2% follow through buy signal), then, waiting to buy shortly after a short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms is a good strategy.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave 1 up of a Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycle that began 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/GLD probably entered a Short Term Wave B Upcycle early on 7-30-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B of the Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle since 7-23 peaked yesterday 7-31 in rollover mode, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
I'll look to ultra short SPX or RUT via SDS or TWM in an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle (probably early to mid session) on Monday. The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator turned bearish as expected today 8-1, at -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500).
I day traded WMT short today, with an entry point at 58.02 and an exit point at 57.95. I got whipsawed out of my WMT short, as it filled it's downside gap at 57.45 in a very deceptive circuitous fashion, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, but, I still made a significant amount of money, because, I traded a large enough position.
SPX created a downside gap at 1263.20 on 7-30, that got filled today as expected.
RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.
VIX fell a significant -1.05% today 8-1 versus SPX falling a significant -0.56%, which is a significant +1.61% rise in complacency (-1.05% + -0.56% = -1.61% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Monday 8-4.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, was +0.26% on 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining's cycle low from 7-30 held today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. NEM did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern following yesterday 7-31's very short term Wave 1 type cycle high, and, appears to have bottomed near session's end.
I bought NEM at 47.2999 shortly after NEM hit the session cycle low at 47.01 (NEM is at 47.40 after hours). The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bullish the past two days, at +2.28% versus the XAU on 8-1 and +1.08% on 7-31, and, is extremely bullish in recent weeks, at -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled yesterday 7-31's downside gap at 43.19 early today as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The downside gaps at 402.30 for HUI and at 89.52 for GLD got filled today 8-1.
GDX/HUI/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 very likely bottomed on 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on 7-30's candle. The XAU took out the 7-30 cycle low today 8-1. In bear markets downside surprises are much more likely.
The dramatic rebound after brief early severe weakness on 7-30 is a sign that GDX/HUI/GLD have probably bottomed short term/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle on 7-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on 7-30's candle. NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
Waiting for NEM to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle (hit a 2% follow through buy signal), then, waiting to buy shortly after a short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms is a good strategy.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave 1 up of a Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycle that began 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/GLD probably entered a Short Term Wave B Upcycle early on 7-30-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B of the Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle since 7-23 peaked yesterday 7-31 in rollover mode, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
I'll look to ultra short SPX or RUT via SDS or TWM in an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle (probably early to mid session) on Monday. The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator turned bearish as expected today 8-1, at -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500).
I day traded WMT short today, with an entry point at 58.02 and an exit point at 57.95. I got whipsawed out of my WMT short, as it filled it's downside gap at 57.45 in a very deceptive circuitous fashion, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, but, I still made a significant amount of money, because, I traded a large enough position.
SPX created a downside gap at 1263.20 on 7-30, that got filled today as expected.
RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.
VIX fell a significant -1.05% today 8-1 versus SPX falling a significant -0.56%, which is a significant +1.61% rise in complacency (-1.05% + -0.56% = -1.61% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Monday 8-4.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, was +0.26% on 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:21 PM
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