GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM Are Extremely Oversold
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM are extremely oversold, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ASKResearch.com is showing HUI's RSI at an unusually oversold 16.957 (under 20 is rare for HUI) and Williams %R is at an extremely oversold -99 out of a maximum of -100.
This huge Wave A down of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 7-15-08 for GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD is obviously probably near but not at a bottom yet. The NEM Lead Indicator was -0.15% versus the XAU today/on 8-5, which points to more downside, and, both the daily and intraday candlestick charts (see previous paragraph) don't look like a bottom has been reached, because, there isn't a bullish large inverse spike on today 8-5's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was extremely bullish the prior three days, at an extremely bullish +2.29% versus the XAU on 8-4, at +2.28% versus the XAU on 8-1, and +1.08% on 7-31, and, is extremely bullish in recent weeks, at -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10 (filled 8-5), 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle that began in early July after the cycle high at 53.77, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in a Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B of the Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle since 7-23 appeared to peaked on 7-31 in rollover mode, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, but, it may peak in very deceptive rollover mode tomorrow, or, the short term Wave 1 upcycle may peak in very deceptive rollover mode tomorrow.
I'll look to ultra short SPX, NDX, or RUT via SDS, QID, or TWM in an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle (probably early to mid session) on Wednesday. The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator should turn bearish again tomorrow. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.40% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-4, and, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1.
RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23 that got filled today 8-5. WMT created a downside gap today 8-5 at 58.43 and SPX did so at 1249.01.
VIX fell an unusually large -10.18% today 8-5 versus SPX rising a sharp +2.87%, which is an unusually large +7.31% rise in complacency (-10.18% + +2.87% = -7.31% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Wednesday 8-6, followed by weakness.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.40% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, was +0.26% on 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
This huge Wave A down of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle since 7-15-08 for GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD is obviously probably near but not at a bottom yet. The NEM Lead Indicator was -0.15% versus the XAU today/on 8-5, which points to more downside, and, both the daily and intraday candlestick charts (see previous paragraph) don't look like a bottom has been reached, because, there isn't a bullish large inverse spike on today 8-5's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was extremely bullish the prior three days, at an extremely bullish +2.29% versus the XAU on 8-4, at +2.28% versus the XAU on 8-1, and +1.08% on 7-31, and, is extremely bullish in recent weeks, at -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10 (filled 8-5), 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle that began in early July after the cycle high at 53.77, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are in a Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B of the Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle since 7-23 appeared to peaked on 7-31 in rollover mode, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, but, it may peak in very deceptive rollover mode tomorrow, or, the short term Wave 1 upcycle may peak in very deceptive rollover mode tomorrow.
I'll look to ultra short SPX, NDX, or RUT via SDS, QID, or TWM in an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle (probably early to mid session) on Wednesday. The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator should turn bearish again tomorrow. The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.40% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 8-4, and, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1.
RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23 that got filled today 8-5. WMT created a downside gap today 8-5 at 58.43 and SPX did so at 1249.01.
VIX fell an unusually large -10.18% today 8-5 versus SPX rising a sharp +2.87%, which is an unusually large +7.31% rise in complacency (-10.18% + +2.87% = -7.31% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Wednesday 8-6, followed by weakness.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.40% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, was +0.26% on 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:18 PM
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