The GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Crash Since 7-15-08 Probably Didn't Bottom Yet
The GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD crash since 7-15-08 (Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March) probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, because, there isn't a large bullish inverse spike on yesterday 8-11's candle. Also, today 8-12's NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.03% versus the XAU, which points to severe weakness tomorrow, after likely early strength.
Looking at HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart it doesn't look like an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle (began late yesterday 8-11) has been completed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.
Also, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.39% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-12, which points to some GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD strength early tomorrow, despite the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator (was a very bearish -1.03% versus the XAU today).
I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early tomorrow. I'll watch NEM as a potential long trade tomorrow also, after the expected severe weakness occurs.
The GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave C type crash since 7-15-08 is probably the entire Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, not just Wave A of Wave C, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Sometimes Wave C type crashes don't have a substantial countertrend Wave B type "interruption," and, that's probably the case now. Basically, the bottom fell out and a crash occurred.
That's the good news, that Wave A down of the GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably bottoming. The bad news is that this Wave C crash since 7-15-08 probably didn't bottom yet.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on yesterday's candle, and, might have bottomed yesterday 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
NEM filled downside gaps at 42.29 and 41.52 yesterday, which is another sign that an important cycle low is probably imminent. Also, volume was an extremely high 15.335 million shares yesterday 8-11, and, volatility has obviously been extreme as well, which are additional signs that a very important cycle low is imminent.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.03% versus the XAU today 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a downside gap at 43.75 on 8-6, and, GDX created one at 38.59, that both got filled on 8-8. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle (yup, count change, it's an anemic monthly upcycle, RUT's chart looks much healthier) since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode yesterday 8-11 (spike on yesterday's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading and possibly overnight (might ultra short SPX, NDX, or RUT via SDS, QID, or TWM) trading purposes I'll be looking at trading WMT short, or, SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short on Wednesday or Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-5 at 58.43 (filled) and SPX did so at 1249.01.
WMT has an upside gap at 60.76 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX rose a very sharp +5.52% today 8-12 versus SPX falling a significant -1.21%, which is a very sharp +4.31% rise in fear (+5.52% + -1.21% = +4.31% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Wednesday 8-13.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.39% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Looking at HUI's 5 day intraday candlestick chart it doesn't look like an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle (began late yesterday 8-11) has been completed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.
Also, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.39% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-12, which points to some GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD strength early tomorrow, despite the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator (was a very bearish -1.03% versus the XAU today).
I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early tomorrow. I'll watch NEM as a potential long trade tomorrow also, after the expected severe weakness occurs.
The GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave C type crash since 7-15-08 is probably the entire Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle since mid March, not just Wave A of Wave C, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Sometimes Wave C type crashes don't have a substantial countertrend Wave B type "interruption," and, that's probably the case now. Basically, the bottom fell out and a crash occurred.
That's the good news, that Wave A down of the GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably bottoming. The bad news is that this Wave C crash since 7-15-08 probably didn't bottom yet.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has a respectably large bullish inverse spike on yesterday's candle, and, might have bottomed yesterday 8-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, NEM took out the cycle low that occurred in early May (which was a surprise), so, NEM is putting in/put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low, not a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low.
The Wave 1 major intermediate term upcycle peaked in January at 57.44, and, NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
NEM filled downside gaps at 42.29 and 41.52 yesterday, which is another sign that an important cycle low is probably imminent. Also, volume was an extremely high 15.335 million shares yesterday 8-11, and, volatility has obviously been extreme as well, which are additional signs that a very important cycle low is imminent.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.03% versus the XAU today 8-12, was a bullish +0.65% on 8-11, and, has been extremely bullish recently, at +1.90% on 8-8, +1.26% on 8-7, -1.82% on 8-6, -0.15% on 8-5, +2.29% on 8-4, +2.28% on 8-1, +1.08% on 7-31, -0.55% on 7-30, +0.05% on 7-29, -0.42% on 7-28, +0.12% on 7-25, +5.67% on 7-24, +0.83% on 7-23, +2.51% on 7-22, +0.71% on 7-21, +0.62% on 7-18, -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
GLD created an upside gap at 81.13 on 8-12. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8, GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, the XAU created one at 151.14, and, GLD created one at 86.09. Reliable lead indicator NEM created a downside gap at 43.75 on 8-6, and, GDX created one at 38.59, that both got filled on 8-8. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 3 upcycle (yup, count change, it's an anemic monthly upcycle, RUT's chart looks much healthier) since late July peaked in deceptive rollover mode yesterday 8-11 (spike on yesterday's daily candle), that has an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (see daily chart), see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For day trading and possibly overnight (might ultra short SPX, NDX, or RUT via SDS, QID, or TWM) trading purposes I'll be looking at trading WMT short, or, SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short on Wednesday or Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
WMT created a downside gap on 8-5 at 58.43 (filled) and SPX did so at 1249.01.
WMT has an upside gap at 60.76 and SPX has one at 1305.31.
VIX rose a very sharp +5.52% today 8-12 versus SPX falling a significant -1.21%, which is a very sharp +4.31% rise in fear (+5.52% + -1.21% = +4.31% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Wednesday 8-13.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.39% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 8-12, was a bullish +0.52% on 8-11, was a bearish -0.81% on 8-8, was an extremely bearish -4.46% on 8-7, was +0.36% on 8-6, was +0.40% on 8-5, was an extremely bullish +2.08% on 8-4, was a bearish -0.92% on 8-1, was a very bullish +1.41% on 7-31, +0.26% on 7-30, +0.21% on 7-29, +0.43% on 7-28, -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23.
The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:02 PM
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