Trade the Cycles

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Massive Deflationary Forces And The US Dollar Cyclical Bull Market Since 3-17-08 Explain Gold's Cyclical Bear Market Since 3-17-08

Massive deflationary forces and the US Dollar Cyclical Bull Market since 3-17-08 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd) explain Gold/HUI's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold) Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.

Crashing real estate values, due to very tight mortgage lending practices resulting from the credit crisis/previously poor/loose lending practices, has led to/resulted in shrinking or cancelled existing home equity lines of credit, an economic downturn, very low consumer confidence, a crashing velocity/circulation of money, etc that is more than offsetting the Fed's efforts to inflate the economy (rapid M3 money supply growth, IF it is really rapid). These powerful deflationary forces largely explain Gold/HUI's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold) Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08.

As of July 1 states and local governments are cutting back, which is exacerbating the economic downcycle and is resulting in an even more deflationary environment.

Why have most gold writers ignored US Dollar strength since 3-17-08? Because most are either clueless, cowardly, or are BSing people, or a combination of the three. The good thing about the gold bear market is that it's making many village idiots and con artists look exactly like what they are, village idiots and/or con artists. Most people should have realized before the bear market that most gold writers were clueless or bogus.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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